• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

As Big Tech showers employees with perks to win the talent war, Nvidia built a nearly $5 trillion company by making people pay for their own lunch

2

MacKenzie Scott alone accounted for one-third of America's $19.2 billion in megagifts last year

3

Current price of oil as of July 1, 2026

1

As Big Tech showers employees with perks to win the talent war, Nvidia built a nearly $5 trillion company by making people pay for their own lunch

2

MacKenzie Scott alone accounted for one-third of America's $19.2 billion in megagifts last year

3

Current price of oil as of July 1, 2026

Is it time for individual investors to ‘evacuate the stock market’?

By
Heidi N. Moore
Heidi N. Moore
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Heidi N. Moore
Heidi N. Moore
Down Arrow Button Icon
July 8, 2010, 6:13 PM ET
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

The market bears are more convinced than ever that it’s time to sell out.

by Heidi N. Moore, contributor

The markets may rally a lot these days, but the country is still in a bearish kind of mood. White House press secretary Robert Gibbs recently danced around the issue of a double-dip recession, and Peter Orszag, the head of the Office of Management and Budget, is rumored to have quit his job in disgust with the massive national deficit.

Adding to this, the stock market has been doing some odd things lately, with 200-point jumps and bizarre drops and suspicious-looking rallies and flash crashes. We thought it might be time to get a view from a market bear.

It was bracing. Basta! says United-ICAP chief technical analyst Walter Zimmermann, who has been urging his firm’s clients to “evacuate the stock market” since 2007 and renewed his warning this year.

Zimmermann, whose firm’s clients include energy traders and institutional investors, is a big believer in the bearish view. (The whole bulls-versus-bears thing is a little like stepping into the L.A. gang wars, we know, but if you want to wear your colors and throw gang signs, that’s what the comments section is for.) His basic message to investors is an old one: if you can’t take the heat, get out of the kitchen. Dig a little deeper, though, and he’s really saying that the kitchen is about to go up in flames.

Zimmermann explains his bearishness by citing his technical belief that we are not in a double-dip recession, but a “triple-dip recession.” The difference is that he starts counting during the market’s movements back during the tech bust years of 2002 to 2003 – the first dip, in his view – and after the second dip of 2007-2009, he believes we’re in for more. “The technicals indicate new lows ahead if the 878.00 level [of the S&P 500] is broken from here.”

The possibilities he sees next are a depression brought on by deflation – he notes that copper and steel prices are imitating the softness they saw in 1930 and are signs of a pullback by China, which we are heavily dependent upon. In a best-case scenario, Zimmermann suggests there may be a repeat of the congested, go-nowhere market of 1965 to 1985.

So, in his view, any way you slice it, the stock market is not a place you should be. “The risk is too great. It’s just not worth the heartache of giving back gains,” said Zimmerman, who quips that investors have already seen their 401ks become “201ks.”

This might seem extreme, but Zimmermann is hardly alone. There’s a bearish zeitgeist out there, certainly in the short term. Legendary commodities investor Jim Rogers says he is short stocks (and long commodities). Permabear Robert Prechter, who uses Elliott Wave principles to analyze the markets, also predicts dark things for the markets. The American Association of Individual Investors, which tracks market sentiment, found that 42% of its members are bearish and only 25% are bullish.

Is getting out of equities really the answer? We wondered if diversification would help, and the answer that came back was: no. Zimmermann says his firm’s theme is “one big market, one big mess.” He went on, “Diversification only works in bull markets; diversification doesn’t work in a bear market because everything is linked together. One always has the option of pulling out of a market that’s not trending and wait for signs of improvement.”

The real surprise to us was Zimmermann’s answer to the investing dilemma: T-bills. U.S. Treasury bonds, with their odd behavior this year on top of a record national deficit, have fed something of a controversy lately. Many, including Fortune‘s Allan Sloan, make strong arguments for why the Treasury run-up shouldn’t be trusted.

Zimmermann’s comeback is that investors have limited losses on Treasuries. “Maybe you wouldn’t get a return on equity, but you’ll get your principal back. That wouldn’t be the case if we see another dip in the stock market. You’re not at risk of losing your return on equity, you’re at risk of losing your equity,” he said.

–Heidi Moore is Sweeping the Street while Colin Barr is on vacation.

About the Author
By Heidi N. Moore
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in

A bag of money.
Personal Financechecking accounts
Best checking account bonuses for July 2026: Bonuses between $250 and $5,000
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 2, 2026
2 hours ago
New bonus alert: HSBC Premier checking offering up to $5,000 bonus (for a limited time)
Bankingchecking accounts
New bonus alert: HSBC Premier checking offering up to $5,000 bonus (for a limited time)
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 2, 2026
2 hours ago
Michael Shaulov, chief executive officer and co-founder of Fireblocks Inc.
CryptoCFO Daily
Why CFOs should pay attention to Open USD—the new stablecoin backed by more than 140 companies
By Sheryl EstradaJuly 2, 2026
3 hours ago
Scott Bessent, US treasury secretary, during an Economic Club of New York (ECNY) event in New York, US, on Tuesday, June 23, 2026.
Economynational debt
Elon Musk says AI is the only way to fix the $40 trillion U.S. debt crisis—but a new study says even the most optimistic scenario won’t fill the hole
By Eleanor PringleJuly 2, 2026
4 hours ago
A test of Anduril's Altius drone.
NewslettersTerm Sheet
Defense tech could be entering its awkward teenage years. Is the boom a bubble?
By Allie GarfinkleJuly 2, 2026
4 hours ago
em
Commentary250 Years of Innovation
America’s 250th birthday has Elon Musk and a record IPO. Its 15th had Alexander Hamilton — and a stock market bubble
By Owen LamontJuly 2, 2026
4 hours ago

Most Popular

As Big Tech showers employees with perks to win the talent war, Nvidia built a nearly $5 trillion company by making people pay for their own lunch
Big Tech
As Big Tech showers employees with perks to win the talent war, Nvidia built a nearly $5 trillion company by making people pay for their own lunch
By Marco Quiroz-GutierrezJuly 1, 2026
1 day ago
MacKenzie Scott alone accounted for one-third of America's $19.2 billion in megagifts last year
Success
MacKenzie Scott alone accounted for one-third of America's $19.2 billion in megagifts last year
By Sydney LakeJune 25, 2026
7 days ago
Current price of oil as of July 1, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of oil as of July 1, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 1, 2026
1 day ago
Philanthropy leader at Warren Buffett and Bill Gates’ Giving Pledge says children of billionaires are pushing them to give their wealth away faster
Success
Philanthropy leader at Warren Buffett and Bill Gates’ Giving Pledge says children of billionaires are pushing them to give their wealth away faster
By Preston ForeJune 27, 2026
5 days ago
The Supreme Court's birthright citizenship ruling hands the U.S. economy a $7.7 trillion win
Newsletters
The Supreme Court's birthright citizenship ruling hands the U.S. economy a $7.7 trillion win
By Diane BradyJuly 1, 2026
1 day ago
Trump got a $78K pension from the Screen Actors Guild in 2025 because he appeared in Home Alone 2 in 1992
Politics
Trump got a $78K pension from the Screen Actors Guild in 2025 because he appeared in Home Alone 2 in 1992
By Sasha RogelbergJuly 1, 2026
22 hours ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.