• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

MacKenzie Scott alone accounted for one-third of America's $19.2 billion in megagifts last year

2

Philanthropy leader at Warren Buffett and Bill Gates’ Giving Pledge says children of billionaires are pushing them to give their wealth away faster

3

Elon Musk on MacKenzie Scott giving away $26 billion of her fortune: 'Sadly,' it makes the world a worse place

1

MacKenzie Scott alone accounted for one-third of America's $19.2 billion in megagifts last year

2

Philanthropy leader at Warren Buffett and Bill Gates’ Giving Pledge says children of billionaires are pushing them to give their wealth away faster

3

Elon Musk on MacKenzie Scott giving away $26 billion of her fortune: 'Sadly,' it makes the world a worse place

Don’t count on exports to save the economy

By
Nin-Hai Tseng
Nin-Hai Tseng
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Nin-Hai Tseng
Nin-Hai Tseng
Down Arrow Button Icon
September 10, 2010, 5:41 PM ET
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

News that exports rose last month was something to cheer, but it will be consumption at home — not abroad — that will lift this economy out of the doldrums.


img_0294

Port of Long Beach, 2009 (photo: Biofriendly/Flickr.com)

It was somewhat of a relief this week when the Commerce Department reported that exports grew more than expected in July — further signaling that the U.S. might not slip back into a recession after all. American goods and services sold to foreigners increased by 1.8% to $153.3 billion, a two-year high that helped shrink the U.S. trade deficit.

Exports have generally expanded for more than a year. Economists predict they will at least hold steady, if not grow, through the end of this year.

But don’t count on exports to drive U.S. growth.

Exports account for roughly 12% of the U.S. economy. This is sizable. It’s also more than double what it was in 1968 when exports made up a mere 5.3% of GDP and much bigger than it was only six years ago when it was 9.5%.

Still, the role of exports isn’t big enough to drive overall growth. For every airplane (which is what mostly drove the rise in July’s exports) or wind turbine America sells abroad, those deals must more than outweigh the goods and services the country buys from foreigners. And, just by looking at America’s ongoing trade deficit, the nation simply buys way more than it sells abroad.

What’s more, consumer spending currently makes up about two-thirds of U.S. GDP. That’s a lot, compared even with other industrialized countries like Japan. And investments, which include companies buying everything from buildings to computers, make up roughly 13% of the economy.

All this means demand at home – not abroad – will mostly drive today’s economic recovery and overall U.S. growth.

“Exports are a nice thing, but not large enough to drive the US economy,” says David Backus, economics professor at New York University’s Stern Business School.

This isn’t to downplay the role of exports in the U.S. economy.

The White House earlier this year set a new goal to double exports over the next five years. President Obama sees exports playing an important role in the economic recovery, with the re-creation of a presidential Export Council made up of some of the country’s top chief executives, including Boeing (BA) chief Jim McNerney, the council’s chair, and Xerox Corporation (XRX) CEO Ursula Burns, the council’s vice chair.

And policy analysts at Brookings Institution say that “export growth can make this recovery job-filled rather than jobless.” While the U.S. has for years generally run deep trade deficits, the Washington DC-based think tank notes that the country actually ran a trade surplus of $152.5 billion in 2008 in the smaller segment of selling commercial services abroad. This includes management and consulting, film and television, as well as computer services and insurance.

Such exports are bound to grow further, as existing and new services emerge and become increasingly traded. For instance, think of America’s sophisticated medical services industry and its allure in certain developing countries where incomes have risen considerably.

But services are just what the U.S. economy mostly centers around. And the bulk of international trade, at least today and the near future, is focused on manufacturing. No doubt U.S. factories have become an unlikely bright spot amid the slow economic recovery, but that’s probably just cyclical (factories are restocking inventory after not having done so as much during the recession) and manufacturing still only makes up a tiny part of the nation’s economy as it continues to decline. Manufacturing’s share of GDP topped out at nearly 30% in the 1950s. It is just 11% today.

And only 1% of U.S. companies even export at all. Brookings urges the need to do more to help firms, especially small ones, enter foreign markets. It also recommends including state and local leaders into the president’s export council and improving the country’s aging and inefficient freight system, among other things.

These are fine recommendations. Anything to encourage overseas sales could help create jobs and reduce America’s trade deficit. But it won’t move GDP enough to drive growth.

About the Author
By Nin-Hai Tseng
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in

Current price of Bitcoin for July 1, 2026
Personal FinanceCryptocurrency
Current price of Bitcoin for July 1, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 1, 2026
2 hours ago
Current price of Ethereum for July 1, 2026
Personal FinanceEthereum
Current price of Ethereum for July 1, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 1, 2026
2 hours ago
Top CD rates from major banks July 1, 2026: Chase CDs, Bank of America CDs, Citibank CDs, and more
Personal FinanceCertificates of Deposit (CDs)
Top CD rates from major banks on July 1, 2026: Chase CDs, Bank of America CDs, Citibank CDs, and more
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 1, 2026
2 hours ago
DHL plane being refuelled at airport by man in high-vis jacket
EnergyAviation
The Iran conflict saw jet fuel prices soar—when you use 1.88 million tonnes a year, how you respond really matters (just ask DHL)
By Sam ForsdickJuly 1, 2026
2 hours ago
Current price of oil as of July 1, 2026
Personal FinanceOil
Current price of oil as of July 1, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 1, 2026
2 hours ago
In this photo illustration, a Cisco logo is displayed on a smartphone with Artificial Intellingence (AI) symbols in the background.
AICFO Daily
Cisco is rolling out AI agents to every single one of its 90,000 employees
By Sheryl EstradaJuly 1, 2026
2 hours ago

Most Popular

MacKenzie Scott alone accounted for one-third of America's $19.2 billion in megagifts last year
Success
MacKenzie Scott alone accounted for one-third of America's $19.2 billion in megagifts last year
By Sydney LakeJune 25, 2026
6 days ago
Philanthropy leader at Warren Buffett and Bill Gates’ Giving Pledge says children of billionaires are pushing them to give their wealth away faster
Success
Philanthropy leader at Warren Buffett and Bill Gates’ Giving Pledge says children of billionaires are pushing them to give their wealth away faster
By Preston ForeJune 27, 2026
4 days ago
Elon Musk on MacKenzie Scott giving away $26 billion of her fortune: 'Sadly,' it makes the world a worse place
Success
Elon Musk on MacKenzie Scott giving away $26 billion of her fortune: 'Sadly,' it makes the world a worse place
By Sydney LakeJune 29, 2026
2 days ago
The U.S. Army is opening military bases to private billions — here's why that changes everything for the next 250 years
Commentary
The U.S. Army is opening military bases to private billions — here's why that changes everything for the next 250 years
By Marc AndersenJune 30, 2026
1 day ago
Current price of oil as of June 30 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of oil as of June 30 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJune 30, 2026
1 day ago
As Big Tech showers employees with perks to win the talent war, Nvidia built a nearly $5 trillion company by making people pay for their own lunch
Big Tech
As Big Tech showers employees with perks to win the talent war, Nvidia built a nearly $5 trillion company by making people pay for their own lunch
By Marco Quiroz-GutierrezJuly 1, 2026
8 hours ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.