• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Microsoft AI chief gives it 18 months—for all white-collar work to be automated by AI

2

Despite having a $165 million net worth, Scarlett Johansson says work-life balance doesn’t exist—and the first step to success is admitting that

3

The Bezos family just donated $100 million to help achieve one of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s top campaign promises

1

Microsoft AI chief gives it 18 months—for all white-collar work to be automated by AI

2

Despite having a $165 million net worth, Scarlett Johansson says work-life balance doesn’t exist—and the first step to success is admitting that

3

The Bezos family just donated $100 million to help achieve one of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s top campaign promises

2030: China’s coming water crisis

By
Matt Vella
Matt Vella
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Matt Vella
Matt Vella
Down Arrow Button Icon
December 14, 2012, 10:43 AM ET

By Brian Dumaine, senior editor at large



FORTUNE — After each Presidential election, The National Intelligence Council (NIC), the Washington, D.C., agency that provides long-term strategic analysis to America’s intelligence community, releases a report on security risks. Its newest report, issued on December 10th and called Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds, covers many topics from cross-border conflict to terrorism to regional economic collapse.

One theme in particular that stands out this year is the coming food and water crisis in China. According to the report, climate change coupled with China’s move toward urbanization and middle class lifestyles will create huge water demand and therefore crop shortages by 2030. As the report states: “Water may become a more significant source of contention than energy or minerals out to 2030.”

Globally, demand for food is estimated to increase by more than 35% by 2030 and that means the world will need more water. After all, agriculture and livestock account for 70% of our water use. According to a major international study, global water requirements—mostly to sustain agriculture and livestock—will rise to 40% above our current sustainable water supplies.

China is particularly vulnerable to this trend. The report points out, for example, that cereal production in China faces significant challenges from environmental stresses relating to water scarcity—the melting Himalayan glaciers aren’t helping—soil depletion, and pressures on land availability from urbanization. China is a major wheat producer and the second-largest producer and consumer of corn after the US.

By 2030, though, China may no longer be self-sufficient in these crops and might be forced to increase its imports potentially triggering, the NIC concludes, “a significant price run-up on international markets.”
None of this needs to happen if China—as well as other developing nations—pursue new methods to increase crop yields and preserve water. The NIC suggests three new technologies that need to be developed: GMO crops, precision agriculture, and high-tech irrigation.

• The NIC believes that breakthroughs in plant genetics—enabled by molecular biology—hold great promise for achieving food security in the next 15-20 years. Insect and drought resistant crops that require small amounts of fertilizer can be designed through molecular plant breeding. Nations like China will have to overcome consumer and international regulatory resistance.

• Robotics might be able to help farmers reduce the amount of water, fertilizer and seed they need. The NIC says that with in the next five to 10 years, “autonomous tractors”—think of them as highly automated manufacturing facilities on wheels—can use computer technology to farm more efficiently. The NIC also reports that “vertical” farming in high-rise structures could help raise yields and reduce water consumption.

• Irrigation systems on farms waste roughly 60% of the water used. Micro-irrigation systems that use IT to gauge exactly how much water needs to be dripped on plants could boost yields dramatically. The cost of today’s micro-irrigation systems, however, is still high.

As with any set of predictions it difficult to say how fast or even whether any of these new technologies will gain traction. At the very least, they do present some intriguing ideas for investors looking for a way to profit on the 21st century economy.

About the Author
By Matt Vella
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon

Latest in

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in

Trump’s IRS suit may end with a $1.7 billion compensation fund
PoliticsDonald Trump
Trump’s IRS suit may end with a $1.7 billion compensation fund
By Zoe Tillman, Chris Strohm, Hadriana Lowenkron and BloombergMay 16, 2026
2 hours ago
World’s largest aircraft carrier returns from 11-month deployment, longest since Vietnam, after supporting Iran war and Maduro raid
PoliticsMilitary
World’s largest aircraft carrier returns from 11-month deployment, longest since Vietnam, after supporting Iran war and Maduro raid
By The Associated PressMay 16, 2026
2 hours ago
Ray Dalio says China’s ascent ushers in era of ‘tribute system’
AsiaChina
Ray Dalio says China’s ascent ushers in era of ‘tribute system’
By David Westin, Edward Dufner and BloombergMay 16, 2026
2 hours ago
Oil markets could be a month away from the moment of truth. Brace for a ‘non-linear’ price spike and panic buying, analysts warn
EnergyOil
Oil markets could be a month away from the moment of truth. Brace for a ‘non-linear’ price spike and panic buying, analysts warn
By Jason MaMay 16, 2026
3 hours ago
SpaceX heads into a record-shattering IPO with the ‘deepest moat that exists today’ as investors vow to ‘never bet against Elon’
InnovationIPOs
SpaceX heads into a record-shattering IPO with the ‘deepest moat that exists today’ as investors vow to ‘never bet against Elon’
By Jason MaMay 16, 2026
5 hours ago
tarot
AICulture
We talked to 12 tarot card readers who are using AI. They split in 2 camps, with big implications for the technology
By Ziv Epstein, Farnaz Jahanbakhsh, Vana Goblot and The ConversationMay 16, 2026
7 hours ago

Most Popular

Microsoft AI chief gives it 18 months—for all white-collar work to be automated by AI
AI
Microsoft AI chief gives it 18 months—for all white-collar work to be automated by AI
By Jake AngeloMay 16, 2026
9 hours ago
Despite having a $165 million net worth, Scarlett Johansson says work-life balance doesn’t exist—and the first step to success is admitting that
Success
Despite having a $165 million net worth, Scarlett Johansson says work-life balance doesn’t exist—and the first step to success is admitting that
By Preston ForeMay 13, 2026
3 days ago
The Bezos family just donated $100 million to help achieve one of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s top campaign promises
Politics
The Bezos family just donated $100 million to help achieve one of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s top campaign promises
By Jake AngeloMay 12, 2026
4 days ago
Current price of oil as of May 15, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of oil as of May 15, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerMay 15, 2026
1 day ago
Meet the 20-year-old CEO who launched a company in high school to solve Gen Z's entry-level job crisis
Future of Work
Meet the 20-year-old CEO who launched a company in high school to solve Gen Z's entry-level job crisis
By Jake AngeloMay 16, 2026
13 hours ago
‘You’re not a hero, you’re a liability’: Shark Tank’s Kevin O’Leary warns Gen Z founders to stop glorifying hustle culture
Future of Work
‘You’re not a hero, you’re a liability’: Shark Tank’s Kevin O’Leary warns Gen Z founders to stop glorifying hustle culture
By Jacqueline MunisMay 16, 2026
9 hours ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.