• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Egg companies made $1.22 billion in profit off a $6 carton — now they’re buying their way out of a price-fixing case with 53 million donated eggs

2

Meet the Zillennials: The luckiest micro-generation in the workforce, born between 1993 and 1998

3

Economists have found an answer to slowing cognitive decline: Avoid retiring early, study finds

1

Egg companies made $1.22 billion in profit off a $6 carton — now they’re buying their way out of a price-fixing case with 53 million donated eggs

2

Meet the Zillennials: The luckiest micro-generation in the workforce, born between 1993 and 1998

3

Economists have found an answer to slowing cognitive decline: Avoid retiring early, study finds

Housing still a weak investment, bond fund manager says

By
Stephen Gandel
Stephen Gandel
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Stephen Gandel
Stephen Gandel
Down Arrow Button Icon
May 5, 2014, 6:59 PM ET
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

FORTUNE — Your house is a terrible investment, and it’s getting worse. Of course, that’s good news for home shoppers. Prices are likely to fall from here.

That was the view of one of the world’s top bond managers at one of Wall Street’s most high profile investment conferences on Monday. Speaking at the Sohn Conference, which is being co-produced by Bloomberg, Jeffrey Gundlach, who is the founder of bond fund firm Doubleline Capital, called single family houses “overrated” and over-loved by individual investors.

“Home ownership will continue to decline,” says Gundlach.

MORE: Americans have fallen in love with real estate once again

The housing market, after rebounding for the past year or so, has stalled lately. Like much else in the economy, many have blamed the weather, saying it’s just a pause. Gundlach disagrees. He thinks home sales, which are reported with a lag, will continue to disappoint, and, as a result, prices are likely to fall.

That’s a problem. Despite the improvement, the housing market has continued to be a drag on the overall economy, subtracting as much as a percentage point off GDP growth. Lower home prices could increase foreclosures, which have been falling recently, but remain elevated.

Gundlach says the pent up demand for housing that bulls talk about won’t materialize. Homeownership rates have fallen in the past few years, and people assume those numbers will go back to where they were before the housing bust. But Gundlach says the current level of homeownership is normal. It was elevated in the mid-2000s.

Second, Gundlach argues that first-time buyers are not likely to come back in droves. “The kids are not alright,” says Gundlach.

More young people are staying with their families, or renting. What’s more, rising rents, Gundlach says, will make it harder for renters to save money for a down payment.

The rising affordability that housing bulls often say will boost sales is actually an illusion, Gundlach claims. Many of the adjustable-rate home loans that were available in the run up to the housing bust are no longer an option for most borrowers. So even though interest rates have fallen, Gundlach says, the monthly payment that the average borrower has to pay has gone up, by nearly 25% from 2006. And Gundlach claims that the efforts to replace mortgage insurance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could make home loans even more expensive.

MORE: The real estate market is looking normal again

What’s more, Gundlach says the supply of houses on the market could soon spike. He says as many as 35% of all subprime borrowers are still behind on their mortgages. Banks, under pressure from regulators, have slowed putting those houses into foreclosure. But he says many of those houses could eventually hit the market.

Institutional investors who have bought up houses in the past few years may look to cash out in the next few years. That should put more houses on the market and push down prices as well. Add the fact that cash-poor, house-rich baby boomers who are increasingly going to need to sell and Gundlach sees a recipe for still lower housing prices for years to come.

Of course, that’s great news for future home buyers, as long as they don’t think of their house as a good investment. There’s a good argument it won’t be.

 

About the Author
By Stephen Gandel
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in

JPMorgan built a pipeline of female CEO candidates that was the envy of Wall Street. How did it fall apart?
MPWMost Powerful Women
JPMorgan built a pipeline of female CEO candidates that was the envy of Wall Street. How did it fall apart?
By Emma HinchliffeJuly 4, 2026
1 hour ago
Elon Musk with a black DOGE hat
SuccessWealth
Even as Elon Musk calls philanthropy ‘very hard,’ every day Americans gave a record $617 billion—despite feeling the squeeze over the cost of living
By Preston ForeJuly 4, 2026
1 hour ago
Americans will eat 150 million hot dogs today. One specific American is predicted to eat 70 of them
North AmericaFood and drink
Americans will eat 150 million hot dogs today. One specific American is predicted to eat 70 of them
By Catherina GioinoJuly 4, 2026
1 hour ago
Nike’s self-inflicted wounds are risking CEO Elliott Hill’s nascent comeback
RetailFortune 500
Nike’s self-inflicted wounds are risking CEO Elliott Hill’s nascent comeback
By Phil WahbaJuly 4, 2026
1 hour ago
‘Devin-kun’: Japan embraces agents as legacy code and a shrinking workforce create a perfect market for an AI software engineer 
AsiaAI agents
‘Devin-kun’: Japan embraces agents as legacy code and a shrinking workforce create a perfect market for an AI software engineer 
By Nicholas GordonJuly 3, 2026
11 hours ago
‘It’s just his AI and my AI going back and forth’: The workplace phenomenon that’s undermining human relationships
Future of WorkWorkforce
‘It’s just his AI and my AI going back and forth’: The workplace phenomenon that’s undermining human relationships
By Jacqueline MunisJuly 3, 2026
17 hours ago

Most Popular

Egg companies made $1.22 billion in profit off a $6 carton — now they’re buying their way out of a price-fixing case with 53 million donated eggs
Law
Egg companies made $1.22 billion in profit off a $6 carton — now they’re buying their way out of a price-fixing case with 53 million donated eggs
By Wyatte Grantham-Philips and The Associated PressJuly 2, 2026
2 days ago
Meet the Zillennials: The luckiest micro-generation in the workforce, born between 1993 and 1998
AI
Meet the Zillennials: The luckiest micro-generation in the workforce, born between 1993 and 1998
By Nick LichtenbergJuly 3, 2026
1 day ago
Economists have found an answer to slowing cognitive decline: Avoid retiring early, study finds
Economy
Economists have found an answer to slowing cognitive decline: Avoid retiring early, study finds
By Sasha RogelbergJuly 2, 2026
2 days ago
On Wall Street, analysts increasingly don’t believe the U.S. government’s 'misleading' job numbers
Economy
On Wall Street, analysts increasingly don’t believe the U.S. government’s 'misleading' job numbers
By Jim EdwardsJuly 3, 2026
21 hours ago
$25 billion CEO says one-hour interviews are a waste of time—he puts candidates through six hours of tests and wants them to order wine at lunch
Success
$25 billion CEO says one-hour interviews are a waste of time—he puts candidates through six hours of tests and wants them to order wine at lunch
By Orianna Rosa RoyleJuly 3, 2026
1 day ago
Current price of oil as of July 2, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of oil as of July 2, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 2, 2026
2 days ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.