• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Exclusive

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

FinanceInflation

Misguided inflation fear-mongers come out of the woodwork, yet again

By
Chris Matthews
Chris Matthews
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Chris Matthews
Chris Matthews
Down Arrow Button Icon
June 19, 2014, 1:29 PM ET
Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen speaks during a news conference at Fed headquarters
Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen speaks during a news conference at Fed headquartersPhotograph by Chip Somodevilla—Getty Images

One of the more vigorous species in market punditry today is the inflationista: those who believe that inflation, as opposed to slow growth, is somehow the primary problem the economy is facing.

Given the fact that yearly price increases have stayed below the Fed’s 2% goal for the 24 months prior to its most recent reading of 2.1%, it’s confusing that inflationistas are taking pot shots at the Fed.

Here’s the Guardian’s Heidi Moore writing yesterday about rising food prices:

It all comes down to inflation: the measure of rising prices that we all experience in our daily lives. And inflation is rising – fast, much faster than the Fed anticipates. Meat prices are rocketing at plus-7.7% in 2014, and dairy is up 4.2%, a considerable hit to family shopping budgets. Shelter – either mortgages or rent costs – are rising at about 3%, while car insurance is up 5%, and tuition costs and public transportation are both up more than 3%.
This means consumers are surrounded by rising prices on all sides – paying higher bills, paying more money at the market, paying more just to get to work. At the same time we’re shelling out more for these necessities, our incomes are stagnant. No more money is coming in.

Moore is perturbed by the fact that while prices for the specific items she mentions are rising above the Fed’s target, Fed Chair Janet Yellen and company seem to be only concerned with other measures of inflation–particularly what is known as “core” inflation, a measure that strips out food and energy prices. Larry Doyle, investment advisor and author, echoed this sentiment this morning on Twitter:

While it’s admirable that these analysts are arguing that Fed should concern itself with the welfare of the average American, these criticisms show a lack of understanding of economics and a tendency to overestimate any central bank’s ability to improve the living standards of the median citizen.

So, what’s wrong with the analysis? A few things:

1. You can’t just look at the prices of a few items and declare that inflation is a problem. Yes, food and housing are staple items that we all need to buy, and when those prices rise, it’s not great for Americans. But economists have spent decades trying to improve measures of inflation that take into account all prices. Americans, for instance, spend more money on transportation than they do on any other item besides housing, and prices for used cars and trucks increased by 0.2% in the past 12 months, far below the median increase in pay of 2.1%.

You can cherry pick just about any number to make a point, but there’s a reason why we have specialists at the Labor Department, who study inflation for a living, working on this problem. It’s so we can have a good overall measure of inflation.

2. There’s also a good reason why economists at the Fed strip out food and energy prices when judging their performance with respect to inflation. Energy and food prices fluctuate greatly due to factors like wars and weather. Would that Janet Yellen could wave a magic wand and stop droughts in California or wars in the Middle East that can lead to big jumps in prices of those items, but she can’t.

What Yellen can do is control the size of the money supply to keep prices stable. But how does the Fed decide whether prices are rising due to the amount of money in the system or due to factors outside its control? One way is to strip out those volatile prices and look at others, like those for apparel or automobiles, that are historically more stable and less susceptible to supply shocks. If those prices are rising too quickly, there’s reason to believe that there’s a money supply problem, rather than a weather or war problem.

3. Since core inflation isn’t rising, it’s not likely that the inflation in food prices we’re seeing is a problem the Fed can address. What it can address, however, is the disappointing amount of GDP and employment growth in the economy right now. The Fed is trying to foment more of that growth by keeping interest rates low. If, instead, the Fed raised interest rates, as the inflationistas seem to want, in order to combat higher food prices, economic and employment growth would almost certainly slow down.

By all means, we should keep the Fed’s feet to the fire. It’s too important of an institution for pundits to give a free pass, but proper analysis of its performance requires a solid understanding of what central banks can — and cannot — do.

About the Author
By Chris Matthews
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon

Latest in Finance

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Finance

John Ketchum, CEO of NextEra Energy, speaks during BlackRock's 2026 Infrastructure Summit in Washington, DC, on March 11, 2026. Photographer: Daniel Heuer/Bloomberg via Getty Images
EnergyNextEra Energy
NextEra’s $67 billion Dominion takeover creates the world’s largest utility—just in time to win the AI data-center power surge
By Jordan BlumMay 18, 2026
2 hours ago
Employers are quietly pausing 401(k) matches again. The last time this happened was the 2008 recession and Covid
Personal Finance401(k)
Employers are quietly pausing 401(k) matches again. The last time this happened was the 2008 recession and Covid
By Courtney Vinopal and HR BrewMay 18, 2026
2 hours ago
Harvard University banners hang in front of a building
CryptoCryptocurrency
Harvard sold off its entire $87 million Ethereum stake just one quarter after buying it
By Jack KubinecMay 18, 2026
2 hours ago
Interior view of the New York Stock Exchange
Economyinvestors
New York Fed warns about $69 trillion foreign investment ‘burden’ on U.S. economy
By Tristan BoveMay 18, 2026
3 hours ago
President Donald Trump speaks to the media aboard Air Force One on May 15, 2026.
EconomyDonald Trump
While Trump insisted the Iran war would end ‘soon,’ an account in his name was buying millions in oil, defense and gold
By Eva RoytburgMay 18, 2026
4 hours ago
Ryanair’s CFO says the airline has plans for an ‘armageddon situation’ as the jet fuel crisis threatens weaker European airlines this winter
EnergyAirline industry
Ryanair’s CFO says the airline has plans for an ‘armageddon situation’ as the jet fuel crisis threatens weaker European airlines this winter
By Marco Quiroz-GutierrezMay 18, 2026
4 hours ago

Most Popular

The top foreign holders of U.S. debt may soon dump Treasury bonds and bring their money back home, potentially spiking borrowing costs
Economy
The top foreign holders of U.S. debt may soon dump Treasury bonds and bring their money back home, potentially spiking borrowing costs
By Jason MaMay 17, 2026
1 day ago
Microsoft AI chief gives it 18 months—for all white-collar work to be automated by AI
AI
Microsoft AI chief gives it 18 months—for all white-collar work to be automated by AI
By Jake AngeloMay 16, 2026
2 days ago
The Bezos family just donated $100 million to help achieve one of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s top campaign promises
Politics
The Bezos family just donated $100 million to help achieve one of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s top campaign promises
By Jake AngeloMay 12, 2026
6 days ago
SpaceX heads into a record-shattering IPO with the 'deepest moat that exists today' as investors vow to 'never bet against Elon'
Innovation
SpaceX heads into a record-shattering IPO with the 'deepest moat that exists today' as investors vow to 'never bet against Elon'
By Jason MaMay 16, 2026
2 days ago
'No one was coming to save me': How Reese Witherspoon built a $900 million company from a problem Hollywood wouldn't fix
Success
'No one was coming to save me': How Reese Witherspoon built a $900 million company from a problem Hollywood wouldn't fix
By Sydney LakeMay 17, 2026
1 day ago
Mamdani's New York is coming to tax your private jet. Here's how to prepare
Personal Finance
Mamdani's New York is coming to tax your private jet. Here's how to prepare
By Greg RaiffMay 16, 2026
3 days ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.