• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

As Big Tech showers employees with perks to win the talent war, Nvidia built a nearly $5 trillion company by making people pay for their own lunch

2

MacKenzie Scott alone accounted for one-third of America's $19.2 billion in megagifts last year

3

Current price of oil as of July 1, 2026

1

As Big Tech showers employees with perks to win the talent war, Nvidia built a nearly $5 trillion company by making people pay for their own lunch

2

MacKenzie Scott alone accounted for one-third of America's $19.2 billion in megagifts last year

3

Current price of oil as of July 1, 2026
Leadership

The biggest threat to CEO pay, for the short-term

By
Ryan Derousseau
Ryan Derousseau
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Ryan Derousseau
Ryan Derousseau
Down Arrow Button Icon
October 14, 2014, 10:08 AM ET
Photograph by Bart Sadowski—Getty Images
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

The way CEO pay has grown over the past 30 years, you might think it’s bound to keep growing indefinitely. But if a suddenly stagnant market falls, we could see a stumble in top-level compensation, at least in the short-term.

For the past five years, the stock market has gone wild. The S&P 500 gained 30% in 2013 and 168% since the market low in February 2007. The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq have all surpassed previous highs and reached new milestones. While CEOs aren’t the only ones making mint, executive compensation grew 46% while the U.S. CEO-to-worker-pay ratio jumped from 193-to-1 in 2009 to 296-to-1 by the end of 2013.

Part of this rapid increase has to do with the fact that the highest paid workers link their pay to the stock market. Equilar, a firm that provides executive payment data, says that from 2009 to 2013, median “performance-based” stock compensation increased by 50% for CEOs of S&P 1500 companies, while median bonuses only increased 7%, and median salary (base pay) was up by just slightly over 3%.

This isn’t a new trend, though. The chart below, developed by Lawrence Mishel and Alyssa Davis at the Economic Policy Institute, a left-leaning think tank located in Washington, D.C., highlights the connection. They argue that since 1990—when President Bill Clinton signed a law reducing taxes on performance-related compensation—executive pay and the market have danced a Texas two-step.

Screen Shot 2014-10-14 at 10.05.11 AM

Some argue that linking CEO pay to performance encourages better decision-making at companies, which should ultimately benefit business. Whether it has done this or not, one thing is certain, stock and stock option awards have dramatically increased the wealth of America’s CEOs. A stagnant market could have a similarly dramatic effect on executive take-home pay.

What evidence do we have of a stagnant market? Over the past three months, the S&P 500 has hinted at weakness, moving downwards by almost 5%. Some experts have argued that the equities market is overvalued and with unemployment—often a lagging economic indicator—finally falling below 6%, there’s some evidence a market correction could be on the horizon.

Then there’s the Federal Reserve. With the employment numbers improving, analysts have targeted mid-2015 as a reasonable time to expect The Fed to finally inch up interest rates. That will serve as a drag on stocks, according to S&P Capital IQ analyst Sam Stovall.

“Many people think that stocks usually swoon in anticipation of a new rate tightening cycle,” says Stovall in a recent report, outlining historic market reactions when the Fed increases interest rates. “Surprisingly, however … the S&P 500 held up relatively well in the three and six months before the first rate increase, but stumbled a bit in the first three months after the initial rate hike and only started to catch its breath six months after.”

Expect CEO compensation to react the same way if the market dips. From 2000 to 2009, top-level pay fell by 94% in the wake of two downturns. In between those years, executives saw their pay increase, but overall pay decreases from a high point in 2000.

But as any financial adviser will explain to you, the longer you wait out the market, the more likely it will rebound. Over the long term, you will find yourself making far more than you put in. Remember, many CEOs receive stock options, which lets them pick and choose when to cash out. When the market drops, fewer CEOs collect on options, dragging their pay. “If the market goes down, executives get paid in ways that don’t depend on the stock market,” says Mishel. “They will get options and wait until the market recovers.”

The ability to cash in on the upside also helps explain why CEO pay has grown so quickly in the years since the 2008 downturn, all while worker wages have stagnated.

A market drop may be a short-term threat to a CEO’s pocketbook, which many might welcome. But expect CEO pay to fly back up when the bull market returns and as they cash in when the timing is just right.

About the Author
By Ryan Derousseau
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in Leadership

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Leadership

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent
EconomyDebt
AI’s $2.2 trillion deficit fix is already half fake, economists say
By Tristan BoveJuly 2, 2026
6 hours ago
Mark Zuckerberg, wearing a white shirt, smiles. He is standing in front of a crowd.
SuccessMark Zuckerberg
Mark Zuckerberg feeds his cows macadamia nuts and beer to create the ‘highest-quality beef in the world’ on his $300 million estate in Hawaii
By Sasha RogelbergJuly 2, 2026
8 hours ago
Chris Hulatt co-founder of Octopus Group
SuccessHow I made my first million
A 2-year taste of the office was enough to make 3 grads quit. Now they run a $13.2 billion investment firm: ‘We didn’t want a traditional job again’
By Orianna Rosa RoyleJuly 2, 2026
8 hours ago
Woman taking photo in scenic landscape
Successlifestyle
Americans are escaping the U.S. for New Zealand where house prices have hit a new low—but only wealthy Americans with $3 million spare can invest
By Emma BurleighJuly 2, 2026
9 hours ago
Jason Lemkin
Successwork-life balance
This investor won’t back startups unless staff are in the office 6 days a week: ‘Not because I don’t have empathy, because they’re going to fail’
By Preston ForeJuly 2, 2026
10 hours ago
The true cost of Donald Trump’s $2.2 billion year
NewslettersCEO Daily
The true cost of Donald Trump’s $2.2 billion year
By Diane BradyJuly 2, 2026
14 hours ago

Most Popular

As Big Tech showers employees with perks to win the talent war, Nvidia built a nearly $5 trillion company by making people pay for their own lunch
Big Tech
As Big Tech showers employees with perks to win the talent war, Nvidia built a nearly $5 trillion company by making people pay for their own lunch
By Marco Quiroz-GutierrezJuly 1, 2026
2 days ago
MacKenzie Scott alone accounted for one-third of America's $19.2 billion in megagifts last year
Success
MacKenzie Scott alone accounted for one-third of America's $19.2 billion in megagifts last year
By Sydney LakeJune 25, 2026
8 days ago
Current price of oil as of July 1, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of oil as of July 1, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 1, 2026
1 day ago
Today, Emily Blunt is worth $80 million thanks to her Hollywood career—but she actually wanted to be a UN Spanish translator on $80K
Success
Today, Emily Blunt is worth $80 million thanks to her Hollywood career—but she actually wanted to be a UN Spanish translator on $80K
By Orianna Rosa RoyleJuly 2, 2026
18 hours ago
Trump got a $78K pension from the Screen Actors Guild in 2025 because he appeared in Home Alone 2 in 1992
Politics
Trump got a $78K pension from the Screen Actors Guild in 2025 because he appeared in Home Alone 2 in 1992
By Sasha RogelbergJuly 1, 2026
1 day ago
Philanthropy leader at Warren Buffett and Bill Gates’ Giving Pledge says children of billionaires are pushing them to give their wealth away faster
Success
Philanthropy leader at Warren Buffett and Bill Gates’ Giving Pledge says children of billionaires are pushing them to give their wealth away faster
By Preston ForeJune 27, 2026
6 days ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.