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Handicapping Apple’s earnings

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Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
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By
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
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April 26, 2015, 4:53 AM ET
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Screen Shot 2015-04-25 at 8.36.06 PM
This should be another big one.

Not as big as Apple’s Christmas quarter, the most profitable in U.S. corporate history. But surely Apple’s biggest second quarter yet.

The company told analysts in January to look for total sales in the March quarter somewhere in the range of $52 to $55 billion — representing, at the $53.5 billion midpoint, 22% growth from the same quarter last year.

The consensus among the analysts Fortune polled — 24 professionals and 12 amateurs — is that Apple’s revenue for fiscal Q2 2015 will come in at about $56.45 billion, up nearly 24% year over year.

Anticipating a record Q2, investors have bid up the stock nearly 20% since January. Whether it goes up or down from there depends — at least in theory — on how big last quarter was and what kind of guidance Apple gives for the one that ends in June — the first to include sales of the Apple Watch.

We’ll get that guidance Monday. Tune in after the markets close.

Handicap

Click to enlarge. Note: Apple stopped giving EPS guidance in 2013.

Follow Philip Elmer-DeWitt on Twitter at @philiped. Read his Apple (AAPL) coverage at fortune.com/ped or subscribe via his RSS feed.

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