• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

MacKenzie Scott alone accounted for one-third of America's $19.2 billion in megagifts last year

2

Philanthropy leader at Warren Buffett and Bill Gates’ Giving Pledge says children of billionaires are pushing them to give their wealth away faster

3

Elon Musk on MacKenzie Scott giving away $26 billion of her fortune: 'Sadly,' it makes the world a worse place

1

MacKenzie Scott alone accounted for one-third of America's $19.2 billion in megagifts last year

2

Philanthropy leader at Warren Buffett and Bill Gates’ Giving Pledge says children of billionaires are pushing them to give their wealth away faster

3

Elon Musk on MacKenzie Scott giving away $26 billion of her fortune: 'Sadly,' it makes the world a worse place
FinanceWarren Buffett

What Warren Buffett’s favorite indicator says about China’s stock market

By
Stephen Gandel
Stephen Gandel
and
Stacy Jones
Stacy Jones
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Stephen Gandel
Stephen Gandel
and
Stacy Jones
Stacy Jones
Down Arrow Button Icon
July 28, 2015, 5:48 PM ET
Video Poster
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Warren Buffett has long been bullish on China, and its market. But, given the nation’s recent stock market tumbles, would he still be now?

Chinese stocks have been on a roller-coaster ride lately. Shares on China’s Shanghai exchange dropped roughly 10% on Monday and Tuesday. That comes after a 14% rebound since its 25% plunge in June and early July.

But volatility has never scared away Buffett. The billionaire investor and CEO of conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA) often says that Wall Street incorrectly equates volatility with risk. If you plan on holding a stock for the long term, Buffett says, it doesn’t matter what it does along the way. The price of a stock will eventually reflect its true value, which is hopefully higher than what you paid to buy the shares.

 

What Buffett is really concerned about is not overpaying in the first place. About a decade-and-a-half ago, Buffett divulged what he said was his favorite metric for determining whether the stock market was overvalued or undervalued. He wrote about it for the first time in an article in Fortune in 1999. (And here’s an update.) Buffett said he likes to compare the total value of the stock market to the output of the economy, or GDP. It’s like a price-to-earnings ratio but for the economy instead of just one stock. Buffett said he likes to buy when stocks are trading at 70%-to-80% of economic output. Anything over 133% begins to look expensive.

By Stacy Jones

So, what does Buffett’s favorite market indicator say about Chinese stocks right now? It offers a surprisingly positive message, especially compared to what it is saying right now about the U.S. After China’s recent market drop, the total value of all Chinese stocks (I added up the value of shares on China’s two main exchanges, the Shanghai and the Shenzhen, as well as the Hong Kong’s Hang Seng market, where many mainland Chinese companies have long traded) to China’s GDP (plus Hong Kong’s) is 110%.

Many commentators have suggested that China’s market 140% rise in just a year-and-a-half (before the recent correction) was a bubble. But back in early 2014, China’s stock market was actually very cheap. At the end of March 2014, China’s total market value was just 69% of GDP. (That’s the lowest point for China in the chart above.) That’s below the territory that Buffett, who is known as a value investor, would usually says it’s time to buy.

China’s stock market value is higher now, but, the Buffett indicator suggests, perhaps not too high. The U.S. stock market trades at a value of 125% of America’s GDP. That means Chinese stocks are, at least relative to the U.S., a good buy.

There are, of course, some caveats. First of all, just because China’s stock market is cheaper than the U.S. stock market doesn’t mean Chinese shares are undervalued. Many people think the U.S. stock market is overvalued because the nation’s economic growth has been middling. China is growing fast, but it’s slowing. All of that comes into play when you are valuing a stock market.

[fortune-brightcove videoid=4348746198001]

 

Investors place a premium on reliability. Unlike Buffett, most investors actually don’t like volatility. So the U.S. stock market tends to trade above its GDP. Over the past five years, the U.S. stock market has traded at nearly 110% of GDP. China has traded at just over 90% of GDP. Go back even further, and it’s likely that China’s market has averaged much lower than that. So, compared to China’s market, America’s market always looks expensive.

Still, the Buffett indicator suggests that the people saying China’s stock market is still way overvalued are wrong. And Buffett’s favorite indicator matches up nicely to what he said about China back in May at Berkshire’s annual shareholder meeting, when the market was higher.

The investor predicted the Chinese stock market had another two to three years to run because the country’s population had “found a way to unlock their potential.” He made those comment right around when China’s stocks hit their all time high. They started to tumble about a month later. But none of this is likely to bother Buffett.

About the Authors
By Stephen Gandel
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
By Stacy Jones
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in Finance

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Finance

Current price of Bitcoin for July 1, 2026
Personal FinanceCryptocurrency
Current price of Bitcoin for July 1, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 1, 2026
1 hour ago
Current price of Ethereum for July 1, 2026
Personal FinanceEthereum
Current price of Ethereum for July 1, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 1, 2026
1 hour ago
Top CD rates from major banks July 1, 2026: Chase CDs, Bank of America CDs, Citibank CDs, and more
Personal FinanceCertificates of Deposit (CDs)
Top CD rates from major banks on July 1, 2026: Chase CDs, Bank of America CDs, Citibank CDs, and more
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 1, 2026
2 hours ago
DHL plane being refuelled at airport by man in high-vis jacket
EnergyAviation
The Iran conflict saw jet fuel prices soar—when you use 1.88 million tonnes a year, how you respond really matters (just ask DHL)
By Sam ForsdickJuly 1, 2026
2 hours ago
Current price of oil as of July 1, 2026
Personal FinanceOil
Current price of oil as of July 1, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 1, 2026
2 hours ago
Current price of silver as of Wednesday, July 1, 2026
Personal Financesilver
Current price of silver as of Wednesday, July 1, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 1, 2026
2 hours ago

Most Popular

MacKenzie Scott alone accounted for one-third of America's $19.2 billion in megagifts last year
Success
MacKenzie Scott alone accounted for one-third of America's $19.2 billion in megagifts last year
By Sydney LakeJune 25, 2026
6 days ago
Philanthropy leader at Warren Buffett and Bill Gates’ Giving Pledge says children of billionaires are pushing them to give their wealth away faster
Success
Philanthropy leader at Warren Buffett and Bill Gates’ Giving Pledge says children of billionaires are pushing them to give their wealth away faster
By Preston ForeJune 27, 2026
4 days ago
Elon Musk on MacKenzie Scott giving away $26 billion of her fortune: 'Sadly,' it makes the world a worse place
Success
Elon Musk on MacKenzie Scott giving away $26 billion of her fortune: 'Sadly,' it makes the world a worse place
By Sydney LakeJune 29, 2026
2 days ago
The U.S. Army is opening military bases to private billions — here's why that changes everything for the next 250 years
Commentary
The U.S. Army is opening military bases to private billions — here's why that changes everything for the next 250 years
By Marc AndersenJune 30, 2026
1 day ago
Current price of oil as of June 30 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of oil as of June 30 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJune 30, 2026
1 day ago
As Big Tech showers employees with perks to win the talent war, Nvidia built a nearly $5 trillion company by making people pay for their own lunch
Big Tech
As Big Tech showers employees with perks to win the talent war, Nvidia built a nearly $5 trillion company by making people pay for their own lunch
By Marco Quiroz-GutierrezJuly 1, 2026
7 hours ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.