• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Microsoft AI chief gives it 18 months—for all white-collar work to be automated by AI

2

Former top Russian official admits the country is over Putin and can 'imagine a future without him' — even elites bail as Kremlin seizes their assets 

3

The Bezos family just donated $100 million to help achieve one of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s top campaign promises

1

Microsoft AI chief gives it 18 months—for all white-collar work to be automated by AI

2

Former top Russian official admits the country is over Putin and can 'imagine a future without him' — even elites bail as Kremlin seizes their assets 

3

The Bezos family just donated $100 million to help achieve one of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s top campaign promises
FinanceThe Chart: Investing Now

The post-recession economy is worse than we thought

By
Chris Matthews
Chris Matthews
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Chris Matthews
Chris Matthews
Down Arrow Button Icon
July 30, 2015, 10:29 AM ET
GDP Slows Significantly In First Quarter Of 2015
NEW YORK, NY - APRIL 29: Shoppers walk along Lexington Avenue in the eastern Midtown section of Manhattan on April 29, 2015 in New York City. According to the Federal Reserve Bank, growth of the U.S. gross domestic product - the value of goods and services produced in the U.S. - has slowed for the first quarter of 2015. (Photo by Kevin Hagen/Getty Images)Photograph by Kevin Hagen — Getty Images

Economists usually like to give you your good news and bad news in one dose.

The most recent report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed that the economy actually grew in the first quarter of 2015, at a rate of 0.6%, as opposed to the most recent estimate, which said that the economy shrank slightly in the first three months of the year. The BEA also estimated that second quarter growth came in at 2.4%, slightly below economists’ expectations, but enough to reassure analysts and market participants that the first-quarter slowdown was just a blip rather than the beginnings of a slowdown.

But the positive news pretty much ends there. Non residential fixed investment, which includes spending on things like plants and equipment by companies, fell by 0.6% in the second quarter, after growing in the first. This is an important category to watch because this sort of investment has been lacking in the recovery, though it has been picking up in recent quarters. A retreat in this sort of spending may suggest that businesses are not convinced of the resilience of the U.S. economy.

Thursday’s report also included revisions in growth estimates for previous years as well. Check out this chart from The Wall Street Journal which shows the difference between the initial readings of post-recession growth and today’s revision:

Screen Shot 2015-07-30 at 8.56.33 AM

As you can see, the revisions generally show a more anemic record of post-recession growth than we thought. From 2011 through last year, the U.S. economy, on average, grew just 2% per year, well below its post-war average of roughly 3% growth. As University of Michigan Economist Justin Wolfers put it on Twitter:

It's really astonishing how far unemployment fell from 2011-14, given that economic growth barely averaged 2%.

— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) July 30, 2015

The post-recession economic growth picture looks even more miserable when you compare this recovery to those the U.S. experienced in every recession following World War II. This chart from the Minneapolis Fed shows GDP growth in the quarters following a recession:

Screen Shot 2015-07-30 at 9.21.34 AM

Even the Federal Reserve, which has consistently overestimated growth trends, only sees the economy growing between 1.8% and 2% for the full year this year, with long-run potential between 2% and 2.3% growth.

This has some economists questioning whether the Fed should even consider raising rates this coming fall. Economist Danny Blanchover of Dartmouth wondered as much this morning on Twitter:

Anaemic GDP growth no rise in wage growth falling consumer confidence declining particip rate strengthening $ =no time for a rate rise

— Professor Danny Blanchflower economist & fisherman (@D_Blanchflower) July 30, 2015

The counter argument to this is that the U.S. has simply entered a new normal of slow economic growth. The significant job gains we have seen—underscored by Thursday’s unemployment claims numbers—are more the result of weak productivity growth than strong economic growth. Given this reality, and the fact that we’re starting to see the kind of wage gains that might lead to inflation, the Fed may need to raise rates even if the economy isn’t as strong as we’d all like.

About the Author
By Chris Matthews
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon

Latest in Finance

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Finance

Gundlach says it’s ‘just not possible’ for the Fed to cut rates
EconomyFederal Reserve
Gundlach says it’s ‘just not possible’ for the Fed to cut rates
By Jordan Fitzgerald, Sam Kim and BloombergMay 17, 2026
2 hours ago
Supply shocks weren’t random. They were strategic—and should be seen as ‘supply coercion’ instead, former Fed official says 
Economysupply chains
Supply shocks weren’t random. They were strategic—and should be seen as ‘supply coercion’ instead, former Fed official says 
By Jason MaMay 17, 2026
3 hours ago
U.S. says China to buy $17 billion of agricultural goods annually
EconomyChina
U.S. says China to buy $17 billion of agricultural goods annually
By Yash Roy and BloombergMay 17, 2026
4 hours ago
The top foreign holders of U.S. debt may soon dump Treasury bonds and bring their money back home, potentially spiking borrowing costs
EconomyDebt
The top foreign holders of U.S. debt may soon dump Treasury bonds and bring their money back home, potentially spiking borrowing costs
By Jason MaMay 17, 2026
5 hours ago
BlackRock private credit fund’s valuations are probed by DOJ
InvestingDepartment of Justice
BlackRock private credit fund’s valuations are probed by DOJ
By Olivia Fishlow, Ava Benny-Morrison and BloombergMay 17, 2026
7 hours ago
Drone strike sparks fire at UAE nuclear power plant, the first time it’s been attacked since the Iran war started
EnergyNuclear Energy
Drone strike sparks fire at UAE nuclear power plant, the first time it’s been attacked since the Iran war started
By Jon Gambrell, Samy Magdy and The Associated PressMay 17, 2026
8 hours ago

Most Popular

Microsoft AI chief gives it 18 months—for all white-collar work to be automated by AI
AI
Microsoft AI chief gives it 18 months—for all white-collar work to be automated by AI
By Jake AngeloMay 16, 2026
1 day ago
Former top Russian official admits the country is over Putin and can 'imagine a future without him' — even elites bail as Kremlin seizes their assets 
Politics
Former top Russian official admits the country is over Putin and can 'imagine a future without him' — even elites bail as Kremlin seizes their assets 
By Jason MaMay 16, 2026
1 day ago
The Bezos family just donated $100 million to help achieve one of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s top campaign promises
Politics
The Bezos family just donated $100 million to help achieve one of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s top campaign promises
By Jake AngeloMay 12, 2026
5 days ago
SpaceX heads into a record-shattering IPO with the 'deepest moat that exists today' as investors vow to 'never bet against Elon'
Innovation
SpaceX heads into a record-shattering IPO with the 'deepest moat that exists today' as investors vow to 'never bet against Elon'
By Jason MaMay 16, 2026
1 day ago
Oil markets could be a month away from the moment of truth. Brace for a 'non-linear' price spike and panic buying, analysts warn
Energy
Oil markets could be a month away from the moment of truth. Brace for a 'non-linear' price spike and panic buying, analysts warn
By Jason MaMay 16, 2026
1 day ago
'No one was coming to save me': How Reese Witherspoon built a $900 million company from a problem Hollywood wouldn't fix
Success
'No one was coming to save me': How Reese Witherspoon built a $900 million company from a problem Hollywood wouldn't fix
By Sydney LakeMay 17, 2026
12 hours ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.