• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Microsoft AI chief gives it 18 months—for all white-collar work to be automated by AI

2

Former top Russian official admits the country is over Putin and can 'imagine a future without him' — even elites bail as Kremlin seizes their assets 

3

The Bezos family just donated $100 million to help achieve one of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s top campaign promises

1

Microsoft AI chief gives it 18 months—for all white-collar work to be automated by AI

2

Former top Russian official admits the country is over Putin and can 'imagine a future without him' — even elites bail as Kremlin seizes their assets 

3

The Bezos family just donated $100 million to help achieve one of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s top campaign promises
CommentaryGreece

Note to Alexis Tsipras: opening stores on Sundays won’t save Greece

By
The Conversation
The Conversation
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
The Conversation
The Conversation
Down Arrow Button Icon
August 21, 2015, 1:52 PM ET
Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras. Greek government asks
ATHENS, GREECE - 2015/07/11: Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras. Greek government asks permission for the Greek parliament to find an agreement with the international creditors about the national debt. (Photo by George Panagakis/Pacific Press/LightRocket via Getty Images)Photograph by Pacific Press LightRocket via Getty Images

By George Serafeim

Elections have become a national sport in Greece. The country has had five different prime ministers in the last five years.

My prediction is that this number is not going to change anytime soon.

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has resigned and called for new elections in a bid to consolidate his power and push through the country’s bailout deal.

Odds are Tsipras will emerge a winner in the elections, expected to take place on September 20. This is not a testament to his leadership skills, but rather due to the vacuum of leadership in Greek politics. Opposition parties, such as New Democracy and PASOK, have been completely discredited because of their disastrous management of the country over the last 40 years.

Only the centrist To Potami party could emerge as a competitor to Syriza. As they say – keep your enemies close. So, if Tsipras does not emerge as a clear winner to form a government on his own, I expect him to form a coalition government with To Potami.

Either way, the new elections give Tsipras another chance to get Greece’s financial house in order.

More: 4 leadership lessons from Greece’s Alexis Tsipras

Seven months ago, I suggested that the Greek government’s actions – or inactions – would destroy an enormous amount of value. Unfortunately, I was right.

My conservative estimate is that the average Greek employee would need to work an additional year and a half to make up for the value in the economy destroyed in the last year.

One can arrive at this conclusion by analyzing data from the Athens Stock Exchange, IMF, Bank of Greece, Eurostat, OECD and European Commission. €30 billion was lost in government bank holdings held in the Hellenic Financial Stability Fund. Another €13 billion was lost in non-bank equity holdings. From the €26 billion recorded by the IMF in non-financial assets held for privatization, about €10 billion of value has been destroyed. The sum is €53 billion in losses.

One also needs to account for opportunity costs due to sources such as lost tax revenue and increases in unemployment benefits. This is difficult to estimate, but one simple calculation for the former would be to assume that a 5% GDP contraction would proportionately contract tax revenues by the ratio of tax revenues to GDP, which in 2013 was close to 33%. Given a GDP of €180 billion this would translate into another €3 billion of losses.

Of course actual tax losses could be much higher if GDP losses persist for multiple years. Even ignoring this loss as well as increases in unemployment benefits and any potential losses from the new bank recapitalization, €56 billion of losses have been incurred.

More: Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras rolls the dice on a reelection

This amounts to €16,000 per each of Greece’s approximately 3.5m workers. With an average net wage close to €900 this amounts to a full 18 months of hard work.

This value destruction can be reversed if Greece changes its focus. Greece needs a turnaround and with any turnaround strategy focus is key. Where milk or bread is sold or whether stores will open on Sundays is not going to put Greece in a trajectory of growth. The IMF and the European partners are dead wrong, in my view, to focus on these issues instead of the elephant in the room.

The elephant in the room is the public sector which has a budget of close to €80 billion and 650,000 employees.

Increasing accountability and improving governance in the public sector could have massive economic consequences because it could restore confidence and trust in the country.

Here is one 100-day plan on how to achieve this:

  1. The Greek government can increase the transparency and management of its assets and liabilities by reporting an up-to-date balance sheet of its accounts (which is currently does not). Thus, it should adopt accrual accounting and International Public Sector Accounting Standards. Within 30 days the government should then report its net debt position under international standards. This is much lower than the frequently reported gross debt number that uses nominal value. The former is lower than 50% of GDP while the latter is close to 180%.
  2. The government should then relentlessly educate credit rating agencies that its net debt does not justify such a low credit rating. Having secured European Stability Mechanism financing and having such a low net debt number justifies a better credit rating. A BB credit rating would be perfectly possible within 100 days.
  3. The government should do whatever is necessary for Greek government bonds to be included in the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing program. This will improve liquidity and set the foundation for economic growth.
  4. With a commitment to transparency, a better credit rating, and being part of ECB’s quantitative easing, my estimate is that 10-year Greek government bonds could trade close to 3% yield within 100 days. Now they trade close to 10%. This would open the doors for Greece to tap the market and issue a bond.
  5. Within this sequence of events it would not be unrealistic to expect a 50% increase in the Athens Stock Exchange index leading to a gain of approximately €15 billion.

Greece used to have GDP-per-capita levels almost double that of the poorest countries in the European Union. Now it has just 20% higher than them. New elections will give Tsipras a second opportunity to reverse that trend. Let’s hope he does not waste it again.

George Serafeim is Jakurski Family Associate Professor of Business Administration at Harvard Business School. This article originally appeared in The Conversation.

The Conversation

Subscribe to Fortune Daily to get essential business stories straight to your inbox each morning.

About the Author
By The Conversation
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon

Latest in Commentary

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Commentary

murdochs
CommentaryMedia
OpenAI paid $100 million for a talk show. James Murdoch is eyeing an even bigger deal. The hot new asset class is humanity
By Lin CherryMay 17, 2026
5 hours ago
dennis
CommentaryAI agents
Freshworks CEO: why agile enterprises are winning the AI race — and what they did differently
By Dennis WoodsideMay 17, 2026
5 hours ago
Mary Moreland-Abbott Executive Vice President of Human Resources.
CommentaryRetirement
Gen X is the most indebted generation in America. Their employers can fix that
By Mary MorelandMay 17, 2026
7 hours ago
liberman
Commentarystart-ups
We watched social media concentrate. The same thing is happening in AI, only at a deeper layer
By David Liberman and Daniil LibermanMay 16, 2026
1 day ago
olivier
CommentaryAnthropic
I’ve been studying Big Tech for a long time. What just happened with Anthropic and the Pentagon terrifies me
By Olivier SylvainMay 16, 2026
1 day ago
lawyer
CommentaryLaw
Would you hire the lawyer who just got sanctioned for using AI?
By Alexandra SmythMay 16, 2026
1 day ago

Most Popular

Microsoft AI chief gives it 18 months—for all white-collar work to be automated by AI
AI
Microsoft AI chief gives it 18 months—for all white-collar work to be automated by AI
By Jake AngeloMay 16, 2026
1 day ago
Former top Russian official admits the country is over Putin and can 'imagine a future without him' — even elites bail as Kremlin seizes their assets 
Politics
Former top Russian official admits the country is over Putin and can 'imagine a future without him' — even elites bail as Kremlin seizes their assets 
By Jason MaMay 16, 2026
19 hours ago
The Bezos family just donated $100 million to help achieve one of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s top campaign promises
Politics
The Bezos family just donated $100 million to help achieve one of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s top campaign promises
By Jake AngeloMay 12, 2026
5 days ago
SpaceX heads into a record-shattering IPO with the 'deepest moat that exists today' as investors vow to 'never bet against Elon'
Innovation
SpaceX heads into a record-shattering IPO with the 'deepest moat that exists today' as investors vow to 'never bet against Elon'
By Jason MaMay 16, 2026
1 day ago
Oil markets could be a month away from the moment of truth. Brace for a 'non-linear' price spike and panic buying, analysts warn
Energy
Oil markets could be a month away from the moment of truth. Brace for a 'non-linear' price spike and panic buying, analysts warn
By Jason MaMay 16, 2026
22 hours ago
‘You’re not a hero, you’re a liability’: Shark Tank’s Kevin O’Leary warns Gen Z founders to stop glorifying hustle culture
Future of Work
‘You’re not a hero, you’re a liability’: Shark Tank’s Kevin O’Leary warns Gen Z founders to stop glorifying hustle culture
By Jacqueline MunisMay 16, 2026
1 day ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.