• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Microsoft AI chief gives it 18 months—for all white-collar work to be automated by AI

2

Former top Russian official admits the country is over Putin and can 'imagine a future without him' — even elites bail as Kremlin seizes their assets 

3

The Bezos family just donated $100 million to help achieve one of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s top campaign promises

1

Microsoft AI chief gives it 18 months—for all white-collar work to be automated by AI

2

Former top Russian official admits the country is over Putin and can 'imagine a future without him' — even elites bail as Kremlin seizes their assets 

3

The Bezos family just donated $100 million to help achieve one of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s top campaign promises
TechApple

Six Reasons Apple Closed 2015 With a Whimper

By
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Down Arrow Button Icon
January 1, 2016, 9:24 AM ET
Chart courtesy of Apple

Judging by the fundamentals—things like revenue, earnings, assets, cash flow, profit margins, and growth—Apple had a very good year.

However shares in the world’s most valuable company finished 2015 down 4% from the beginning of the year and off nearly 22% from their 52-week high.

Why the disconnect?

In my comment stream yesterday, a longtime reader who calls himself Merckel spoke for many frustrated shareholders when he boiled it down to six reasons:

  • Heavy option activity. Institutions are content with making bank off of selling lotto tickets (options) to weekly gamblers. Approximately 90% of all Apple (AAPL) options expired worthless in 2015. The pattern is so reliable that it acts as a talisman for stock direction. Thankfully, the option activity is beginning to moderate, which is promising for Apple shareholders. At least in Las Vegas, one knows the odds of losing one’s shirt; Apple gamblers are reduced to wearing only their shorts.
  • Journalism’s broken business model. Clickbait headlines about Apple dominate and are mostly negative. Do not underestimate the power of advertising dollars as the root of much of Apple’s negative press.
  • CNBC. Retail investors are served a regular diet of fear, uncertainty, and doubt (see above). I give business news network CNBC its own slot for good reason: There are more than 40 analysts covering Apple. Most of those still working (heh) are bullish and have price targets well above today’s stock price, though a viewer of CNBC would never know it because the network’s version of “balance” is to give equal time to Apple bulls and Apple bears. That’s not balanced reporting. If CNBC covered man’s landing on the moon, they would no doubt find someone who claimed a hoax for “equal time.”

.

WATCH: For more on Apple, check out the following Fortune video:

  • Ignorance. The average retail investor doesn’t know a P/E ratio from a gym class. Accordingly, they listen to CNBC talking heads, many of whom rely on “channel checks” to divine iPhone sales despite Apple CEO Tim Cook’s warning that suppliers are a bad proxy for actual results.
  • Wall Street myopia. Currently, Wall Street believes Microsoft (MSFT) has three times better prospects than Apple (based on relative P/E ratios). On what planet can anyone defend this conclusion? Microsoft has failed in mobile, is giving away Windows and new versions of Office have long ceased to be meaningful. The cloud business is a race to the bottom, and I’d hate to compete with Amazon’s cloud service since Amazon (AMZN) doesn’t have to make any profits.
  • Perception. Apple’s iPhone business is winning spectacularly. But for the Street, it’s a Wall of Worry. Apple’s worldwide market share for the iPhone is approximately 14%. As Daniel Eran Dilger pointed out, Google’s (GOOG) Android is a feeding tube for new Apple customers. If Apple is too concentrated in iPhones, so is Starbucks (SBUX) selling coffee, Boeing (BA) selling planes, General Motors (GM) selling cars, etc. (the list is very long). Really now, has everyone purchased their last smartphone? Has everyone purchased their last car? The replacement cycle for smartphones would be the envy of the car business, an industry populated by over 20 brands competing for the same customer. By contrast, Apple has never been in a stronger position and its competitors have never been weaker. Yet, some auto manufacturers have a higher P/E ratio than Apple. More Alice in Wonderland in the stock market.

.

“Any one of the above suggests the stock market is inefficient as hell,” Merckel concludes. “That all of the above apply produces a truly asinine Apple stock price.”

SIGN UP: Get Data Sheet, Fortune’s daily newsletter about the business of technology.

Follow Philip Elmer-DeWitt on Twitter at @philiped. Read his Apple coverage at fortune.com/ped or subscribe via his RSS feed.

About the Author
By Philip Elmer-DeWitt
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon

Latest in Tech

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Tech

murdochs
CommentaryMedia
OpenAI paid $100 million for a talk show. James Murdoch is eyeing an even bigger deal. The hot new asset class is humanity
By Lin CherryMay 17, 2026
11 hours ago
dennis
CommentaryAI agents
Freshworks CEO: why agile enterprises are winning the AI race — and what they did differently
By Dennis WoodsideMay 17, 2026
11 hours ago
A man with a headset sits at a desk in a call center.
EconomyAutomation
The AI boom hasn’t stopped U.S. companies from hiring cheap offshore labor, and overseas call center employment is still skyrocketing
By Sasha RogelbergMay 17, 2026
11 hours ago
Zillow CEO doubles down on remote-work model: ‘There is talent everywhere in this country’
Workplace Cultureremote work
Zillow CEO doubles down on remote-work model: ‘There is talent everywhere in this country’
By Marco Quiroz-GutierrezMay 17, 2026
11 hours ago
Stressed job seeker
SuccessGen Z
Gen Z is right about the job hunt—it really is worse than it was for millennials, with nearly 60% of fresh-faced grads frozen out of the workforce
By Emma BurleighMay 17, 2026
12 hours ago
A 45,000-person labor strike at Samsung’s memory chip plants could throw a wrench into the AI boom
EconomySamsung
A 45,000-person labor strike at Samsung’s memory chip plants could throw a wrench into the AI boom
By Catherina GioinoMay 17, 2026
14 hours ago

Most Popular

Microsoft AI chief gives it 18 months—for all white-collar work to be automated by AI
AI
Microsoft AI chief gives it 18 months—for all white-collar work to be automated by AI
By Jake AngeloMay 16, 2026
1 day ago
Former top Russian official admits the country is over Putin and can 'imagine a future without him' — even elites bail as Kremlin seizes their assets 
Politics
Former top Russian official admits the country is over Putin and can 'imagine a future without him' — even elites bail as Kremlin seizes their assets 
By Jason MaMay 16, 2026
1 day ago
The Bezos family just donated $100 million to help achieve one of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s top campaign promises
Politics
The Bezos family just donated $100 million to help achieve one of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s top campaign promises
By Jake AngeloMay 12, 2026
5 days ago
SpaceX heads into a record-shattering IPO with the 'deepest moat that exists today' as investors vow to 'never bet against Elon'
Innovation
SpaceX heads into a record-shattering IPO with the 'deepest moat that exists today' as investors vow to 'never bet against Elon'
By Jason MaMay 16, 2026
1 day ago
Oil markets could be a month away from the moment of truth. Brace for a 'non-linear' price spike and panic buying, analysts warn
Energy
Oil markets could be a month away from the moment of truth. Brace for a 'non-linear' price spike and panic buying, analysts warn
By Jason MaMay 16, 2026
1 day ago
'No one was coming to save me': How Reese Witherspoon built a $900 million company from a problem Hollywood wouldn't fix
Success
'No one was coming to save me': How Reese Witherspoon built a $900 million company from a problem Hollywood wouldn't fix
By Sydney LakeMay 17, 2026
12 hours ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.