• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

As Big Tech showers employees with perks to win the talent war, Nvidia built a nearly $5 trillion company by making people pay for their own lunch

2

MacKenzie Scott alone accounted for one-third of America's $19.2 billion in megagifts last year

3

Current price of oil as of July 1, 2026

1

As Big Tech showers employees with perks to win the talent war, Nvidia built a nearly $5 trillion company by making people pay for their own lunch

2

MacKenzie Scott alone accounted for one-third of America's $19.2 billion in megagifts last year

3

Current price of oil as of July 1, 2026
FinanceEconomy

The Case For Recession Got Stronger This Week

By
Chris Matthews
Chris Matthews
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Chris Matthews
Chris Matthews
Down Arrow Button Icon
January 29, 2016, 2:18 PM ET
GREELEY, CO - JANUARY 27: An oil field worker places well pipe on a rig in Weld County, Colorado, January, 27, 2016. With oil prices now tumbling into drilling in Colorado has slowed. (Photo by RJ Sangosti/The Denver Post)
GREELEY, CO - JANUARY 27: An oil field worker places well pipe on a rig in Weld County, Colorado, January, 27, 2016. With oil prices now tumbling into drilling in Colorado has slowed. (Photo by RJ Sangosti/The Denver Post)RJ Sangosti—The Denver Post
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

If the U.S. economy were a presidential candidate, you can bet that Donald Trump would label it “low energy.”

In the nearly seven years since the end of the Great Recession, American economic growth has never surged above “just okay,” and it appears that won’t change anytime soon. American investors are battling a sharp slowdown in once high-flying China and a near-bear market here at home. Increasingly analysts are worried that the turmoil might force the American economy into a recession, or worse, and these arguments were generally buttressed this week by a slew of disappointing data.

Friday brought the Commerce Department’s initial estimate of GDP growth, which came in at an anemic 0.7% real growth on an annualized basis, due largely to a shrinking of net exports—showing the effect of a strong dollar—and weak business investment.

That was paired with a report from the Labor Department, which showed that employee compensation grew just 2% year-over-year. While that is faster than overall inflation, it’s actually less than the increase in past year in core prices, which strip out volatile food and energy prices. That’s bad news for workers. While a core inflation rate of more than 2% is in line with Federal Reserve’s target, it would be better news for the economy if we saw wage gains outstripping overall inflation, as that would boost consumer spending power.

On Thursday, the Commerce Department announced that orders for durable goods fell sharply by 5.1% from November to December. Part of this was the result of the volatile civilian aircraft and defense sectors, which can show vastly different order figures month-to-month. But even removing these from the picture showed orders falling by 1.2%, with core capital expenditures falling by 1.1%. This gets at two problems facing the U.S. economy: the very strong dollar, which hurt exports, and the continued unwillingness of businesses to invest in new capital projects.

On top of that corporate profits have been coming in, and they have been weak. S&P analyst Howard Silverblatt noted that only 47% had higher sales than in the quarter than Wall Street was expected, lower than typical. Many of the companies that did report better than expected earnings appear to have done it based on cost cutting rather than sales growth. In all, profits for the S&P 500 companies are expected to have fallen 3.5% in the last quarter of 2015, versus a year ago. “The new word (and answer to how are you doing) on the Street now appears to be “struggling,” says Silverblatt.

Most economists still aren’t forecasting a recession this year. Employment growth remains strong, and even data released this week, like high consumer confidence figures the Conference Board give reason to hope that the recent sluggish growth in consumption is just noise. But on balance, this week provided more ammunition for the economic bears than it did for the bulls.

 

About the Author
By Chris Matthews
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in Finance

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Finance

Michael Shaulov, chief executive officer and co-founder of Fireblocks Inc.
CryptoCFO Daily
Why CFOs should pay attention to Open USD—the new stablecoin backed by more than 140 companies
By Sheryl EstradaJuly 2, 2026
2 hours ago
Scott Bessent, US treasury secretary, during an Economic Club of New York (ECNY) event in New York, US, on Tuesday, June 23, 2026.
Economynational debt
Elon Musk says AI is the only way to fix the $40 trillion U.S. debt crisis—but a new study says even the most optimistic scenario won’t fill the hole
By Eleanor PringleJuly 2, 2026
3 hours ago
em
Commentary250 Years of Innovation
America’s 250th birthday has Elon Musk and a record IPO. Its 15th had Alexander Hamilton — and a stock market bubble
By Owen LamontJuly 2, 2026
4 hours ago
paramount
CommentaryAntitrust
How Paramount’s theater commitments could boost local economies across the nation
By Ike BrannonJuly 2, 2026
4 hours ago
Top CD rates today, July 2, 2026: Lock in up to up to 4.40%
Personal FinanceCertificates of Deposit (CDs)
Top CD rates today, July 2, 2026: Lock in up to up to 4.40%
By Glen Luke FlanaganJuly 2, 2026
4 hours ago
Today’s top high-yield savings rates: Up to 5.00% on July 2, 2026
Personal FinanceSavings accounts
Today’s top high-yield savings rates: Up to 5.00% on July 2, 2026
By Glen Luke FlanaganJuly 2, 2026
4 hours ago

Most Popular

As Big Tech showers employees with perks to win the talent war, Nvidia built a nearly $5 trillion company by making people pay for their own lunch
Big Tech
As Big Tech showers employees with perks to win the talent war, Nvidia built a nearly $5 trillion company by making people pay for their own lunch
By Marco Quiroz-GutierrezJuly 1, 2026
1 day ago
MacKenzie Scott alone accounted for one-third of America's $19.2 billion in megagifts last year
Success
MacKenzie Scott alone accounted for one-third of America's $19.2 billion in megagifts last year
By Sydney LakeJune 25, 2026
7 days ago
Current price of oil as of July 1, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of oil as of July 1, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 1, 2026
1 day ago
Philanthropy leader at Warren Buffett and Bill Gates’ Giving Pledge says children of billionaires are pushing them to give their wealth away faster
Success
Philanthropy leader at Warren Buffett and Bill Gates’ Giving Pledge says children of billionaires are pushing them to give their wealth away faster
By Preston ForeJune 27, 2026
5 days ago
The Supreme Court's birthright citizenship ruling hands the U.S. economy a $7.7 trillion win
Newsletters
The Supreme Court's birthright citizenship ruling hands the U.S. economy a $7.7 trillion win
By Diane BradyJuly 1, 2026
1 day ago
Trump got a $78K pension from the Screen Actors Guild in 2025 because he appeared in Home Alone 2 in 1992
Politics
Trump got a $78K pension from the Screen Actors Guild in 2025 because he appeared in Home Alone 2 in 1992
By Sasha RogelbergJuly 1, 2026
21 hours ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.