• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Microsoft AI chief gives it 18 months—for all white-collar work to be automated by AI

2

Former top Russian official admits the country is over Putin and can 'imagine a future without him' — even elites bail as Kremlin seizes their assets 

3

The Bezos family just donated $100 million to help achieve one of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s top campaign promises

1

Microsoft AI chief gives it 18 months—for all white-collar work to be automated by AI

2

Former top Russian official admits the country is over Putin and can 'imagine a future without him' — even elites bail as Kremlin seizes their assets 

3

The Bezos family just donated $100 million to help achieve one of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s top campaign promises
FinanceBrexit

Here’s What Stocks You Should Buy After Brexit

Shawn Tully
By
Shawn Tully
Shawn Tully
Senior Editor-at-Large
Down Arrow Button Icon
Shawn Tully
By
Shawn Tully
Shawn Tully
Senior Editor-at-Large
Down Arrow Button Icon
June 27, 2016, 5:12 PM ET
The City Continues To Struggle As The Stock Market Crashes
Photograph by Cate Gillon — Getty Images

The shock from Brexit is pummeling investors on both sides of the Atlantic with huge losses.

But what looks like a cataclysm has unpacked a great opportunity for bargain-hunters: British stocks are now a huge buy. “I don’t know where the bottom is on this, but people who buy British stocks today won’t regret it in five years,” says Rob Arnott, chief of Research Affiliates, a firm the oversees strategies for $160 billion in investment funds. “In short, the returns on British stocks will be excellent.”

In fact, U.K. equities were cheap well before the big selloff made them even more alluring. A reliable yardstick for measuring whether valuations are rich or modest is the “cyclically adjusted price earnings ratio,” or CAPE, developed by Nobel-prize winning economist Robert Shiller. The CAPE eliminates distortions caused by spikes and valleys in earnings by smoothing profits to arrive at a long-term average. The lower the CAPE you buy in at, the higher your future returns are likely to be, because a lower CAPE delivers both a higher dividend yield, and for the same growth in earnings, a bigger capital gain. As of the end of March, the CAPE on U.K. shares—Arnott’s measure of large-cap British stocks—stood at just 11.

Today, Arnott reckons that the number is about a point lower, both because U.K. shares have fallen in price, and because their companies’ profits are buoyed by sales abroad in dollars and euros that are now worth more when translated into pounds. That puts the probable “real” expected return on British shares, he says, at around 9%. Add inflation, and you can expect to pocket annual gains of 11% or so over the next several years.

By comparison, the CAPE on the S&P 500––even after the upheaval from Brexit––is a lofty 25. At those prices, investors are likely to be stuck with real returns in the 4% range at best, half of what they can expect from UK stocks.

Arnott highlights a mostly-overlooked phenomenon in the market’s meltdown. Since shares crested on June 23 on optimism that “remain” would prevail, the FTSE 100 had slid 5.6%. Of course, the fall for U.S. investors was hugely amplified by the 10% drop in the pound sterling versus the dollar.

But the rout on the continent was far worse, The comparison isn’t perfect because Britain has more big multinational exporters than its continental partners, and the the enhanced value of their large dollar and euro earnings cushioned the fall in their stock prices. Even so, the disparity is striking. Over the same Friday-to-Monday interval, the Euro Stoxx 50 comprising the largest-cap companies in the eurozone, dropped 11.2%, twice the fall in the FTSE. Shares cratered 9.6% in Germany, 10.7% in France, 14% in Spain, and 16% in both Italy and Greece, all declines dwarfing the fall in the U.K. The disparity tells Arnott that “the danger of Brexit to the eurozone is a lot greater than the threat of Brexit to the U.K. That’s because Britain’s leaving is taking the stability out of the EU, even though the U.K. has its own currency. It’s a stark threat to the continued existence of the euro itself.”

Still, those outsized declines made already bargain stocks an even bigger bargain. Before the crash, valuations in Germany and France were 20% higher than in Britain, and they remain significantly richer. But Italy and Spain were both cheaper than the UK pre-Brexit, and are even more so today. Their CAPEs sank below 9, meaning they’re likely post long-term returns, including inflation, of well over 10%.

Arnott advocates purchasing British, Spanish, and Italian shares right now, but also keeping plenty of cash on the sidelines in case they get even cheaper. “It’s best to average your way in,” he says. Chris Brightman, Research Affiliates’ chief investment officer, recommends a great trade: Taking your big profits on overpriced long-term bonds, and plowing them into big cap European shares.

It’s uncertainty about the future, says Arnott, that drives stocks lower, and it’s impossible to know if we’re reached peak uncertainty––or maximum worry that more bad news is on the way––or if uncertainty will grow from here. His main worry is that the EU will try to punish Britain for departing. “If they choose to retaliate, it’s a lose-lose path,” he says. “The economic damage to Britain would be a lot, but not more than the damage to the EU”

But all that uncertainty, and more, is already reflected in these ultra-low prices. If you’re patient, it’s time to pounce.

About the Author
Shawn Tully
By Shawn TullySenior Editor-at-Large

Shawn Tully is a senior editor-at-large at Fortune, covering the biggest trends in business, aviation, politics, and leadership.

See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon

Latest in Finance

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Finance

U.S. says China to buy $17 billion of agricultural goods annually
EconomyChina
U.S. says China to buy $17 billion of agricultural goods annually
By Yash Roy and BloombergMay 17, 2026
55 minutes ago
The top foreign holders of U.S. debt may soon dump Treasury bonds and bring their money back home, potentially spiking borrowing costs
EconomyDebt
The top foreign holders of U.S. debt may soon dump Treasury bonds and bring their money back home, potentially spiking borrowing costs
By Jason MaMay 17, 2026
2 hours ago
BlackRock private credit fund’s valuations are probed by DOJ
InvestingDepartment of Justice
BlackRock private credit fund’s valuations are probed by DOJ
By Olivia Fishlow, Ava Benny-Morrison and BloombergMay 17, 2026
4 hours ago
Drone strike sparks fire at UAE nuclear power plant, the first time it’s been attacked since the Iran war started
EnergyNuclear Energy
Drone strike sparks fire at UAE nuclear power plant, the first time it’s been attacked since the Iran war started
By Jon Gambrell, Samy Magdy and The Associated PressMay 17, 2026
4 hours ago
Some states blast utilities for ‘blatant corporate greed’ as profits rise while consumers revolt against AI-fueled electric bills
EnergyUtilities
Some states blast utilities for ‘blatant corporate greed’ as profits rise while consumers revolt against AI-fueled electric bills
By Marc Levy and The Associated PressMay 17, 2026
5 hours ago
A man with a headset sits at a desk in a call center.
EconomyAutomation
The AI boom hasn’t stopped U.S. companies from hiring cheap offshore labor, and overseas call center employment is still skyrocketing
By Sasha RogelbergMay 17, 2026
7 hours ago

Most Popular

Microsoft AI chief gives it 18 months—for all white-collar work to be automated by AI
AI
Microsoft AI chief gives it 18 months—for all white-collar work to be automated by AI
By Jake AngeloMay 16, 2026
1 day ago
Former top Russian official admits the country is over Putin and can 'imagine a future without him' — even elites bail as Kremlin seizes their assets 
Politics
Former top Russian official admits the country is over Putin and can 'imagine a future without him' — even elites bail as Kremlin seizes their assets 
By Jason MaMay 16, 2026
21 hours ago
The Bezos family just donated $100 million to help achieve one of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s top campaign promises
Politics
The Bezos family just donated $100 million to help achieve one of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s top campaign promises
By Jake AngeloMay 12, 2026
5 days ago
SpaceX heads into a record-shattering IPO with the 'deepest moat that exists today' as investors vow to 'never bet against Elon'
Innovation
SpaceX heads into a record-shattering IPO with the 'deepest moat that exists today' as investors vow to 'never bet against Elon'
By Jason MaMay 16, 2026
1 day ago
Oil markets could be a month away from the moment of truth. Brace for a 'non-linear' price spike and panic buying, analysts warn
Energy
Oil markets could be a month away from the moment of truth. Brace for a 'non-linear' price spike and panic buying, analysts warn
By Jason MaMay 16, 2026
1 day ago
Meet the 20-year-old CEO who launched a company in high school to solve Gen Z's entry-level job crisis
Future of Work
Meet the 20-year-old CEO who launched a company in high school to solve Gen Z's entry-level job crisis
By Jake AngeloMay 16, 2026
1 day ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.