• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Despite having a $165 million net worth, Scarlett Johansson says work-life balance doesn’t exist—and the first step to success is admitting that

2

The Bezos family just donated $100 million to help achieve one of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s top campaign promises

3

Current price of oil as of May 15, 2026

1

Despite having a $165 million net worth, Scarlett Johansson says work-life balance doesn’t exist—and the first step to success is admitting that

2

The Bezos family just donated $100 million to help achieve one of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s top campaign promises

3

Current price of oil as of May 15, 2026
Commentary

Here’s When Having a Self-Driving Car Will Be a Normal Thing

By
Gene Munster
Gene Munster
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Gene Munster
Gene Munster
Down Arrow Button Icon
September 13, 2017, 4:02 PM ET

The self-driving car revolution is gaining speed—and will change our everyday lives in ways big and small.

In recent weeks, announcements from technology companies, governments, and carmakers have accelerated the inevitable transition to safer, more sustainable, and more efficient transportation systems. While this transition may take longer than industry leaders hope, its eventual impact on society is hard to overstate.

For starters, lives will be saved. The World Health Organization estimates that there were about 1.25 million traffic fatalities worldwide in 2013. Self-driving cars will eliminate human error and distraction, a major cause of those accidents. We’ll also have more free time (albeit in a car). According to the U.S. Census, the average American commutes more than 26 minutes each way, or 500 days spent commuting per lifetime. In an autonomous car, we’ll be able to use this time for work or leisure. Finally, consumers will save money as autonomous ride-sharing fleets reduce the cost of transportation.

So, when will we be able to enjoy the benefits of a self-driving car? Tesla CEO Elon Musk claims that we are two years away from “sleeping in our cars.” Kyle Vogt, CEO of General Motors-owned Cruise Automation, announced this week that GM has built “the world’s first mass-producible car designed to operate without a driver” based on the Chevrolet Bolt. However, even Vogt acknowledges that GM is waiting on improvements in self-driving software and legislation to make his vision a reality.

Today, 99.9% of all vehicles on the road do not have the technology to enable full autonomy. Self-driving cars won’t hit our roads in a noticeable way until 2020. But by 2040, we estimate that 95% of new vehicles sold, or 96.3 million cars, will be fully autonomous—a $3.6 trillion opportunity.

Big opportunities draw big competition. Tech companies that pride themselves on expertly integrating hardware and software (the basic ingredients of a self-driving car), namely Google, Tesla, and Apple, are looking to beat traditional carmakers at their own game. And they appear to be winning—both Google and Tesla have driven millions of miles autonomously.

Some traditional carmakers can and will transition successfully to the autonomous future, but these tech companies, with deep expertise in computer vision and artificial intelligence, are meaningfully ahead. Automakers will compete on brand recognition and manufacturing capability; however, in order to implement core self-driving technology, they will need to buy and integrate the technology, as GM has done with Cruise.

Aside from the automotive industry itself, the self-driving vehicle revolution will upend many multi-billion dollar industries: trucking and delivery, auto insurance providers, energy companies, auto parts suppliers, dealerships, parking lots, and ride-sharing services.

Companies in those sectors have more to lose than to gain from autonomy, but society is the big winner. We’ll benefit from fewer traffic accidents, a reduced reliance on fossil fuels, more affordable transportation options, and more free time.

A final thought for those of us who love to drive and dread the thought of an autonomous car: You’ll have your chance to drive, but it will become a hobby, like horseback riding. And you’ll have plenty of time to prepare for your drive on the way to the track—in your self-driving car.

Gene Munster is a managing partner at Loup Ventures. You can follow Loup Ventures on Twitter @LoupVentures.

About the Author
By Gene Munster
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon

Latest in Commentary

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Commentary

liberman
Commentarystart-ups
We watched social media concentrate. The same thing is happening in AI, only at a deeper layer
By David Liberman and Daniil LibermanMay 16, 2026
2 hours ago
olivier
CommentaryAnthropic
I’ve been studying Big Tech for a long time. What just happened with Anthropic and the Pentagon terrifies me
By Olivier SylvainMay 16, 2026
3 hours ago
lawyer
CommentaryLaw
Would you hire the lawyer who just got sanctioned for using AI?
By Alexandra SmythMay 16, 2026
5 hours ago
greg
Personal FinanceAviation
Mamdani’s New York is coming to tax your private jet. Here’s how to prepare
By Greg RaiffMay 16, 2026
6 hours ago
chase
CommentaryCities
San Francisco has $2 trillion in AI wealth and can’t fix its own city. That’s every city’s problem
By Chase GarbarinoMay 15, 2026
1 day ago
lori
Commentarymental health
I run Valvoline Instant Oil Change and work with young people every day. They’re in crisis—and we all have to try to help
By Lori FleesMay 15, 2026
1 day ago

Most Popular

Despite having a $165 million net worth, Scarlett Johansson says work-life balance doesn’t exist—and the first step to success is admitting that
Success
Despite having a $165 million net worth, Scarlett Johansson says work-life balance doesn’t exist—and the first step to success is admitting that
By Preston ForeMay 13, 2026
3 days ago
The Bezos family just donated $100 million to help achieve one of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s top campaign promises
Politics
The Bezos family just donated $100 million to help achieve one of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s top campaign promises
By Jake AngeloMay 12, 2026
4 days ago
Current price of oil as of May 15, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of oil as of May 15, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerMay 15, 2026
1 day ago
Nearly 50,000 Lake Tahoe residents have to find a new power source after their energy source looks to redirect lines to data centers
Travel & Leisure
Nearly 50,000 Lake Tahoe residents have to find a new power source after their energy source looks to redirect lines to data centers
By Catherina GioinoMay 12, 2026
4 days ago
The airplane fuel shortage is a myth propagated by airlines who want to cancel unprofitable flights, says private jet CEO
Energy
The airplane fuel shortage is a myth propagated by airlines who want to cancel unprofitable flights, says private jet CEO
By Jim EdwardsMay 14, 2026
2 days ago
Debbie Gibson, Geezer Butler of Black Sabbath want you to adopt a beagle rescued from an experimental lab in Wisconsin
North America
Debbie Gibson, Geezer Butler of Black Sabbath want you to adopt a beagle rescued from an experimental lab in Wisconsin
By Scott Bauer and The Associated PressMay 13, 2026
3 days ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.