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Techrise of the robots

The Robot Revolution Will Wipe Out 200,000 U.S. Banking Jobs in the Next Decade

By
Alfred Liu
Alfred Liu
and
Bloomberg
Bloomberg
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By
Alfred Liu
Alfred Liu
and
Bloomberg
Bloomberg
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October 2, 2019, 5:28 AM ET
A picture taken on May 20, 2019 shows a robot with pakages of new 200 euro banknotes during the printing procedure at the Bankitalia, the Italian national central bank, high-security factory in Rome. - The ECB allocates production volumes to different national central banks, which then supply a specific proportion of the total annual production. The banknotes are subsequently distributed among the different national central banks. (Photo by Vincenzo PINTO / AFP) (Photo credit should read VINCENZO PINTO/AFP/Getty Images)
A picture taken on May 20, 2019 shows a robot with pakages of new 200 euro banknotes during the printing procedure at the Bankitalia, the Italian national central bank, high-security factory in Rome. - The ECB allocates production volumes to different national central banks, which then supply a specific proportion of the total annual production. The banknotes are subsequently distributed among the different national central banks. (Photo by Vincenzo PINTO / AFP) (Photo credit should read VINCENZO PINTO/AFP/Getty Images)VINCENZO PINTO—AFP/Getty Images

Technological efficiencies will result in the biggest reduction in headcount across the U.S. banking industry in its history, with an estimated 200,000 job cuts over the next decade, Wells Fargo & Co. said in a report.

The $150 billion annually that the country’s finance firms are spending on tech — more than any other industry — will lead to lower costs, with employee compensation accounting for half of all bank expenses, said Mike Mayo, a senior analyst at Wells Fargo Securities LLC. Back office, bank branch, call center and corporate employees are being cut by about a fifth to a third, with jobs related to tech, sales, advising and consulting less affected, according to the study.

“It will be a dramatic change in contact centers, and these are both internal and external,” Michael Tang, a Deloitte partner who leads the consulting firm’s global financial-services innovation practice, said in an interview in the Wells Fargo report. “We’re already seeing signs of it with chatbots, and some people don’t even know that they’re chatting with an A.I. engine because they’re just answering questions.”

Wells Fargo’s Mayo joins bank executives, consulting firms and others in predicting huge cuts to the banking workforce amid the push toward automation. McKinsey & Co. said in May that it expects the headcount for front-office workers — the bankers and traders historically seen as among finance firms’ most valuable assets — to drop by almost a third with the rise of robots.

Front-office headcount for investment banking and trading fell for a fifth year in 2018, according to Coalition Development Ltd. data. R. Martin Chavez, an architect of Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s effort to transform itself with tech, said last month that all traders will soon need coding skills to succeed on Wall Street.

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Catch up with Data Sheet, Fortune’s daily digest on the business of tech.

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