Is cotton the new lumber? Prices soar 18%

Futures were trading at $1.05 per pound as of Monday afternoon, an 18% jump from Sept. 20. Year to date, cotton prices have gone up 35%. The last time they were close to these levels was November 2011, when cotton hit $1.02 per pound.

It’s the latest surge in the raw materials market. Lumber, of course, saw a big spike this spring, nearly quadrupling in price before returning to normal levels. (The price of lumber is starting to rise again as well.)

The cotton price spike is somewhat different than the lumber situation though. This spring saw a historic lumber shortage as sawmills shut down and as DIY-ers emptied hardware stores so they could work on home projects during the pandemic. At the same time, low interest rates fueled a housing boom. With cotton, the demand is coming from China.

As part of former President Donald Trump’s trade embargo with China, U.S. companies are not allowed to import clothing and other products made of cotton from the Xinjiang region, which is where most of the country’s cotton comes from. President Joe Biden has continued the policy. As a workaround, plants there have been buying U.S.-grown cotton, making goods, then sending them back to the U.S.

The cost of clothing was already on the rise this year. The August Consumer Price Index showed a 4.2% uptick in apparel costs, a price rise largely in line with inflation. But the increase in cotton prices could send that notably higher, especially when transport costs are factored in, beyond the raw goods prices.

There is some good news. This year’s cotton crop is looking strong, so a shortage, which could spur a much bigger spike, is unlikely. The harvest is underway, with 13% of the U.S. crop having been harvested so far, per the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Some 62% of the crop is rated good or excellent this year, compared to 40% a year ago.