• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Exclusive

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

FinanceInflation

3 ways our high inflation is eerily like the start of World War II, according to a legendary economist’s prophetic 1941 essay

By
Alena Botros
Alena Botros
Former staff writer
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Alena Botros
Alena Botros
Former staff writer
Down Arrow Button Icon
July 13, 2022, 2:43 PM ET
John Kenneth Galbraith
Economist John Kenneth Galbraith working as Deputy of Price Control in Washington, DC.Getty Images

A great American thinker, Mark Twain, is supposed to have said that history doesn’t repeat itself, but it rhymes.

With inflation hitting yet another new 40-year high in June, could an economic paper from 81 years ago, by another great American thinker, the legendary economist John Kenneth Galbraith, reveal any answers to today’s confusing economy? 

In May 1941, when Galbraith published “The Selection and Timing of Inflation Controls,” the economist was coming off stints at Harvard and Princeton, and was beginning to serve as deputy director of the Office of Price Administration, managing inflation as the U.S. geared up for World War II.

“My father was responsible for the control of inflation from the time of Pearl Harbor to May of 1943,” the economist James K. Galbraith, son of J.K. Galbraith, told Fortune, adding that 1941 was “a crucial year in the second world war, where the pattern for inflation control under emergency conditions was set.”

Looking backward, J.K. Galbraith wrote about the memory of skyhigh prices decades earlier, the challenge of distinguishing between one-off bottlenecks and wider inflation, and demand suddenly roaring back to life after a long slump. Sound familiar?

Flash forward to 2022, and you can sub in the high inflation of the 1970s for the hyperinflation of the 1910s that Galbraith looked back on, the supply-chain crisis of 2021 for the bottlenecks of the 1940s, and the sudden surge that accompanied COVID vaccines for the roaring to life of the wartime economy. 

Sam Levey, an economics doctoral student at the University of Missouri-Kansas City, was struck by the similarities, and his Twitter thread on what he called Galbraith’s “must-read” 81-year-old piece quickly racked up hundreds of likes and retweets on econTwitter.

Levey told Fortune that he stumbled across the prescient Galbraith article during his research on how economies evolve during wartime. “I was reading it and it was deja vu, one thing after another.” 

A wartime economy?

James Galbraith, who is currently a professor of government at the University of Texas at Austin, says there’s something missing from our conversations about inflation today.

“The conversation has been stuck in a kind of textbook mode, and the textbooks are invented by academics and ideologists,” he told Fortune. “They’re not rooted in the realities that we’re presently dealing with.” In 2022, Galbraith said, we are dealing with a huge disruption of the energy sector and energy underpins just about everything else.

One major difference between 1941 and today, says Lawrence Harris, a professor of finance and business economics at the University of Southern California, is that the United States is not gearing up for war.

“Galbraith’s article is all about what to do in 1941,” Harris told Fortune. “He lays out his thoughts about the causes of inflation and how to deal with it. I found it very surprising that someone would identify this as a seminal piece on inflation. It’s not a taxonomy of what causes inflation and how to deal with it.”

Rather, he says, it was about moving resources around during war-time production without causing inflation. 

Although the economics are interesting, Harris says the relevance of the piece today isn’t so obvious to him. Still, he allows, “the pandemic economy is qualitatively similar to wartime economy,” although “the quantitative comparison is largely meaningless.” 

Several economists have likened the pandemic economy to a wartime economy. 

“I was certainly one of those that drew that parallel,” James Galbraith says, while acknowledging the economies aren’t comparable for other reasons.

“In the 1940s, the U.S. was a very self-contained, massively dominant industrial and technical power,” James Galbraith says. “There were some external issues but they weren’t nearly as pervasive as they are now.”

Still, James Galbraith says “inflation” is a loaded term, one that generally refers to generalized increase in prices that is driven by a generalized decline in the value of the currency.

“I would raise a question about the very use of this word ‘inflation,’ which generally just is used every time there is an increase in the general price level,” he said. “What we’re looking at here is particular sectors are in a position to take real advantage of supplying cost conditions, the main one is energy.” 

As for Wednesday’s CPI report, which showed the highest inflation in 40 years? The single largest contributor was energy prices, which surged a whopping 41.6% year-over-year in June, the main culprit being the disruption to energy markets from the war in Ukraine. The U.S. may not have a wartime economy, then, but 2022 definitely seems to.

Sign up for the Fortune Features email list so you don’t miss our biggest features, exclusive interviews, and investigations.

About the Author
By Alena BotrosFormer staff writer
LinkedIn iconTwitter icon

Alena Botros is a former reporter at Fortune, where she primarily covered real estate.

See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon

Latest in Finance

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Finance

John Ketchum, CEO of NextEra Energy, speaks during BlackRock's 2026 Infrastructure Summit in Washington, DC, on March 11, 2026. Photographer: Daniel Heuer/Bloomberg via Getty Images
EnergyNextEra Energy
NextEra’s $67 billion Dominion takeover creates the world’s largest utility—just in time to win the AI data-center power surge
By Jordan BlumMay 18, 2026
4 hours ago
Employers are quietly pausing 401(k) matches again. The last time this happened was the 2008 recession and Covid
Personal Finance401(k)
Employers are quietly pausing 401(k) matches again. The last time this happened was the 2008 recession and Covid
By Courtney Vinopal and HR BrewMay 18, 2026
4 hours ago
Harvard University banners hang in front of a building
CryptoCryptocurrency
Harvard sold off its entire $87 million Ethereum stake just one quarter after buying it
By Jack KubinecMay 18, 2026
4 hours ago
Interior view of the New York Stock Exchange
Economyinvestors
New York Fed warns about $69 trillion foreign investment ‘burden’ on U.S. economy
By Tristan BoveMay 18, 2026
5 hours ago
President Donald Trump speaks to the media aboard Air Force One on May 15, 2026.
EconomyDonald Trump
While Trump insisted the Iran war would end ‘soon,’ an account in his name was buying millions in oil, defense and gold
By Eva RoytburgMay 18, 2026
6 hours ago
Ryanair’s CFO says the airline has plans for an ‘armageddon situation’ as the jet fuel crisis threatens weaker European airlines this winter
EnergyAirline industry
Ryanair’s CFO says the airline has plans for an ‘armageddon situation’ as the jet fuel crisis threatens weaker European airlines this winter
By Marco Quiroz-GutierrezMay 18, 2026
6 hours ago

Most Popular

The Bezos family just donated $100 million to help achieve one of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s top campaign promises
Politics
The Bezos family just donated $100 million to help achieve one of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s top campaign promises
By Jake AngeloMay 12, 2026
6 days ago
Microsoft AI chief gives it 18 months—for all white-collar work to be automated by AI
AI
Microsoft AI chief gives it 18 months—for all white-collar work to be automated by AI
By Jake AngeloMay 16, 2026
2 days ago
The top foreign holders of U.S. debt may soon dump Treasury bonds and bring their money back home, potentially spiking borrowing costs
Economy
The top foreign holders of U.S. debt may soon dump Treasury bonds and bring their money back home, potentially spiking borrowing costs
By Jason MaMay 17, 2026
1 day ago
SpaceX heads into a record-shattering IPO with the 'deepest moat that exists today' as investors vow to 'never bet against Elon'
Innovation
SpaceX heads into a record-shattering IPO with the 'deepest moat that exists today' as investors vow to 'never bet against Elon'
By Jason MaMay 16, 2026
2 days ago
Mamdani's New York is coming to tax your private jet. Here's how to prepare
Personal Finance
Mamdani's New York is coming to tax your private jet. Here's how to prepare
By Greg RaiffMay 16, 2026
3 days ago
'No one was coming to save me': How Reese Witherspoon built a $900 million company from a problem Hollywood wouldn't fix
Success
'No one was coming to save me': How Reese Witherspoon built a $900 million company from a problem Hollywood wouldn't fix
By Sydney LakeMay 17, 2026
2 days ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.