• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Egg companies made $1.22 billion in profit off a $6 carton — now they’re buying their way out of a price-fixing case with 53 million donated eggs

2

As Big Tech showers employees with perks to win the talent war, Nvidia built a nearly $5 trillion company by making people pay for their own lunch

3

Mark Zuckerberg feeds his cows macadamia nuts and beer to create the 'highest-quality beef in the world' on his $300 million estate in Hawaii

1

Egg companies made $1.22 billion in profit off a $6 carton — now they’re buying their way out of a price-fixing case with 53 million donated eggs

2

As Big Tech showers employees with perks to win the talent war, Nvidia built a nearly $5 trillion company by making people pay for their own lunch

3

Mark Zuckerberg feeds his cows macadamia nuts and beer to create the 'highest-quality beef in the world' on his $300 million estate in Hawaii
FinanceInflation

December’s ‘very favorable’ inflation read could signal the ‘final phase of the bear market’ and stave off a recession, experts say

Will Daniel
By
Will Daniel
Will Daniel
Down Arrow Button Icon
Will Daniel
By
Will Daniel
Will Daniel
Down Arrow Button Icon
January 12, 2023, 12:54 PM ET
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Investors have been eagerly anticipating December’s consumer price index (CPI) data, but now that it’s out—the reaction is muted. The S&P traded up just 0.6% by midday on Thursday after the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported consumer prices fell 0.1% last month, and year-over-year inflation dropped to 6.5%.  

The figures represent a marked decline from inflation’s 40 year, 9.1% peak in June, but they were also exactly what Wall Street was expecting. And core inflation—which excludes volatile food and energy prices—was up 0.3% for the month and 5.7% year-over-year. 

Still, BMO Wealth Management’s chief investment strategist Yung-Yu Ma, told Fortune that it was “a very favorable report with inflation moderating in several areas.” And some experts argue that it signals the end of the bear market for stocks.

Gasoline prices sank 9.4% in December and were “by far the largest contributor” to the overall drop in inflation, according to the BLS. Used cars and trucks prices also sank 2.5% last month, and 8.8% year over year. And despite a return to travel this holiday season, airfares fell 3.1% in December. Food prices were up 10.4% year over year, but just 0.3% month over month—a slowdown from the 0.5% rise in November and the 1.1% jump in July.

Throughout 2022, Fed officials raised interest rates seven times in an effort to reduce inflation to their 2% target, hoping to avoid sparking a recession in the process. The central bank’s chairman, Jerome Powell, famously described his goal as a sort of “soft landing” for the economy. 

Ma argues that the latest report is a sign that Powell’s tactics are working, which could enable him to slow the pace of interest rate hikes moving forward. 

“This should soften the Fed’s tone at the next meeting, and it reinforces our belief in a soft landing in which inflation falls but the labor market remains healthy and the economy recalibrates to higher interest rates in the coming quarters,” he said.

But Ma noted that some components of the consumer price index remained high in December, including hospital services and car insurance, among others. And BlackRock’s chief investment officer of global fixed income, Rick Rieder, said in a Thursday note that the CPI report shows that inflation is “moderating,” but added a caveat:

“Deflating inflation is a bit like letting the air out of a balloon; the speed and shape can be hard to predict,” he wrote. “Today’s numbers show an inflationary condition, which while improving, is doing so in an uneven way and remains still distant (on a year-on-year basis) from the Federal Reserve’s target.”

The last gasps of the bear market—or is it all priced in?

With inflation falling sharply in the past few months, some experts argue the bear market—which saw the S&P 500 drop roughly 20% last year—could be coming to an end.

James Demmert, chief investment officer of Main Street Research, told Fortune that he believes the latest inflation data is “supportive of equity prices moving higher.” But Demmert also warned that markets could be volatile throughout the first quarter.

“We are in the final phase of the bear market—which sometimes can be the most painful phase,” he said. “This is usually the phase when corporate earnings results and guidance disappoint.”

Demmert argued that the focus for investors now will be on earnings and the bear market “may resolve itself this quarter.” It’s a common view on Wall Street that the bear market could be on its last legs despite declining earnings per share (EPS). But Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s chief investment officer, warned this week about the potential for corporate EPS to decline in the first quarter and cause a 20% drop in stocks.

Demmert said he believes investors should “remain defensive, yet opportunistic.” 

“Depending on this earnings season, investors may have a great opportunity to buy great companies on weakness as the quarter and earnings season progresses,” he argued.

But some experts are advising caution. Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer of Independent Advisor Alliance, told Fortune that because December’s inflation report came in “exactly as forecast,” the slowdown could have been largely anticipated by investors and priced into markets.

“A lot of this news was already priced in,” he said, arguing that the real question for investors will be whether inflation drops all the way back to the Fed’s 2% target, or whether it gets stuck at a higher level. Zaccarelli believes that many market participants are betting that inflation will continue to drop at the moment, and the economy won’t fall into a recession.

“What keeps us up at night is whether a more negative outcome lies ahead,” he said, explaining that inflation could remain above 3% and a deeper recession is still possible.

And Jason Pride, chief investment officer of Private Wealth at Glenmede, told Fortune that the likelihood of a recession remains “elevated” and the Fed will need to keep their policies restrictive in order to ensure that they don’t repeat past mistakes and “the inflation scourge is squashed.”

“Investors should be careful not to overextrapolate these results and should temper their expectations for premature rate cuts from the Fed,” he warned. “Year-over-year core consumer inflation is still far from the Fed’s price stability goals, and the 1970s provide case in point as to the risks of claiming victory on inflation too early.”

Learn how to navigate and strengthen trust in your business with The Trust Factor, a weekly newsletter examining what leaders need to succeed. Sign up here.

About the Author
Will Daniel
By Will Daniel
LinkedIn iconTwitter icon
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in Finance

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Finance

Photo: World Cup fans drinking.
EconomyEconomics
On Wall Street, analysts increasingly don’t believe the U.S. government’s ‘misleading’ job numbers
By Jim EdwardsJuly 3, 2026
2 hours ago
U.S. President Donald Trump talks to reporters after signing an executive order dealing with automobile repairs with Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lee Zeldin in the Oval Office at the White House on June 29, 2026 in Washington, DC.
EconomyFed
Trump is already causing a headache for his new Fed chairman, saying the central bank’s board is ‘hostile’ and ‘doing the wrong thing’
By Eleanor PringleJuly 3, 2026
2 hours ago
A $75 billion valuation, 75 million global customers and on its way to America—Revolut is London’s disruptor extraordinaire
EuropeLetter from London
A $75 billion valuation, 75 million global customers and on its way to America—Revolut is London’s disruptor extraordinaire
By Kamal AhmedJuly 3, 2026
3 hours ago
Man in a black hat and jacket
InvestingSpace Exploration
Elon Musk can’t sell a single SpaceX share for a year—and then all the locks crack open at once
By Amanda GerutJuly 3, 2026
3 hours ago
Top CD rates today, July 3, 2026: Lock in up to up to 4.40%
Personal FinanceCertificates of Deposit (CDs)
Top CD rates today, July 3, 2026: Lock in up to up to 4.40%
By Glen Luke FlanaganJuly 3, 2026
3 hours ago
The top high-yield savings rates: Up to 4.50% on July 3, 2026
Personal FinanceSavings accounts
The top high-yield savings rates: Up to 4.50% on July 3, 2026
By Glen Luke FlanaganJuly 3, 2026
3 hours ago

Most Popular

Egg companies made $1.22 billion in profit off a $6 carton — now they’re buying their way out of a price-fixing case with 53 million donated eggs
Law
Egg companies made $1.22 billion in profit off a $6 carton — now they’re buying their way out of a price-fixing case with 53 million donated eggs
By Wyatte Grantham-Philips and The Associated PressJuly 2, 2026
19 hours ago
As Big Tech showers employees with perks to win the talent war, Nvidia built a nearly $5 trillion company by making people pay for their own lunch
Big Tech
As Big Tech showers employees with perks to win the talent war, Nvidia built a nearly $5 trillion company by making people pay for their own lunch
By Marco Quiroz-GutierrezJuly 1, 2026
2 days ago
Mark Zuckerberg feeds his cows macadamia nuts and beer to create the 'highest-quality beef in the world' on his $300 million estate in Hawaii
Success
Mark Zuckerberg feeds his cows macadamia nuts and beer to create the 'highest-quality beef in the world' on his $300 million estate in Hawaii
By Sasha RogelbergJuly 2, 2026
20 hours ago
Current price of oil as of July 2, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of oil as of July 2, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 2, 2026
23 hours ago
Americans are escaping the U.S. for New Zealand where house prices have hit a new low—but only wealthy Americans with $3 million spare can invest
Success
Americans are escaping the U.S. for New Zealand where house prices have hit a new low—but only wealthy Americans with $3 million spare can invest
By Emma BurleighJuly 2, 2026
22 hours ago
Economists have found an answer to slowing cognitive decline: Avoid retiring early, study finds
Economy
Economists have found an answer to slowing cognitive decline: Avoid retiring early, study finds
By Sasha RogelbergJuly 2, 2026
21 hours ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.