Most housing analysts expected 2023 to be a rough year for the U.S. housing market. In fact, among the 29 major housing forecast models, 24 forecasted a national home price decline for 2023.
But so far, that hasn’t exactly come to fruition.
Through the first few months of 2023, the U.S. housing market continues to show signs of stabilization. Existing and new home sales have inched up a bit this year, and homebuilder confidence has improved. And firms like Zillow, CoreLogic, and Black Knight have all reported positive month-over-month home price increases this spring.
What’s going on? For starters, housing affordability has improved this spring as the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate, which topped out at 7.37% in November, came back down to around 6.5%. Additionally, a lack of homes for sale, coupled with the market entering its busier spring period, has—at least for now—pushed the national housing market back into equilibrium.
That said, under the hood, the housing market isn’t exactly normal just yet: Some housing markets are booming right now (including Scranton) while other places (including San Jose) are still passing through a home price correction. And even within a particular market, it can vary a lot.
To better understand just how weird—and divided—the housing market is right now, Fortune built seven interactive charts to display ZIP-code-level data for some of the country’s biggest states. These maps show the change in house prices as tracked by the seasonally adjusted Zillow Home Value Index, between December 2022 and March 2023.
Among the 1,559 New York ZIP codes tracked by Zillow, 48.4% saw a home price increase between December 2022 and March 2023. Another 51.6% saw a home price decrease. During the same three-month window in 2022, around 99% of New York ZIP codes saw positive home price growth.
As home price data rolls in for April and May, it's possible that some of these early 2023 declines get erased.
Among the 586 Tennessee ZIP codes tracked by Zillow, 83.1% saw a home price increase between December 2022 and March 2023. The other 16.9% of Tennessee ZIP codes saw a home price decrease.
Among the 1,563 California ZIP codes tracked by Zillow, 6.7% saw a home price increase between December 2022 and March 2023. The other 93.3% of California ZIP codes saw a home price decrease during that three-month window.
Among the 1,039 Ohio ZIP codes tracked by Zillow, 76.6% saw a home price increase between December 2022 and March 2023. The other 23.4% of Ohio ZIP codes saw a home price decrease.
Among the 665 Georgia ZIP codes tracked by Zillow, 68.3% saw a home price increase between December 2022 and March 2023. The other 31.7% of Georgia ZIP codes saw a home price decrease.
Among the 926 Florida ZIP codes tracked by Zillow, 33.7% saw a home price increase between December 2022 and March 2023. The other 66.3% of Florida ZIP codes saw a home price decrease.
Among the 1,554 Texas ZIP codes tracked by Zillow, 62.9% saw a home price increase between December 2022 and March 2023. The other 37.1% of Texas ZIP codes saw a home price decrease.
Want more housing data? Follow me on Twitter at @NewsLambert.
