“The census data, Kastle [office occupancy data], it’s flat as a pancake,” Bloom said in a webinar regarding the state of flexible work Thursday morning, hosted by software firm Scoop. “We’re not heading into the office, but we’re not heading out either. It is completely level.” 

Indeed, the latest data from building security and consulting firm Kastle found that offices were just under half-full last week (with 47.3% occupancy) in the top 10 major U.S. metro areas—about where they’ve hovered for the past two years, and a slight drop from four weeks ago when offices were 49.1% full.  Office occupancy peaked at  50.3%, the week of June 7. Save for the weeks of New Year’s and July 4 (32.8% and 37.4% full respectively), occupancy this year has never left the 45 to 50% range.   

That data tells Bloom that at this point, at the end of summer 2023, after years of false starts to return to office, the workplace is firmly in the “new normal.” He doesn’t expect any more big changes coming down the pike, he said, also pointing to WFH Research data: In the U.S., the share of hours worked from home each week has kept mostly stable at 25% since 2021. Pre-pandemic, it was about 5%. 

Bosses are holding their breath that another big change might come post-Labor Day—the fourth since lockdowns began—which has been heralded as the official line in the sand for an office return each year. Bloom predicts otherwise, based on simple historical data. 

“It feels like the [score of the] last three years has been, Work from home—three; return to office—zero,” he said. “This is not a match that RTO is winning.”

Like a ‘Nike swoosh’

Bloom, who has been conducting research on remote work for two decades, said that workers were essentially either fully remote or fully in the office before the pandemic. The ability to work remotely on a hybrid basis has only become more commonplace since the pandemic popularized it and most workers realized it can create a perfect balance. Bloom characterized it as having hockey stick growth, like a “Nike swoosh”.

Granted, he added, many news outlets have reported on companies mandating office returns—for real this time, they insist—in the lead-up to Labor Day. But Bloom isn’t convinced those plans, which affect millions of workers, hold any water. “We can debate how [real the plans are] in theory versus practice,” he said. “There have to be other firms heading out. I talk to literally hundreds of firms and managers, and some are coming in. Some are going out. On average, they’re about flat.”

One company whose RTO plan made headlines is Zoom, the ubiquitous videoconference firm and clear pandemic winner. But Bloom thinks its office usage is unlikely to materially shift. “I went for lunch with [Zoom CEO] Eric Yuan about a year ago, and asked what the plan was,” he recalled. “He said, basically, ‘People are hybrid. We are hybrid.'”‘ Eric announced formally that people will come to the office, but just two days a week if they live within 50 miles.”

Hybrid has proven to work—but only if it’s organized. It has long been made clear, Bloom said during the webinar, that workers prefer carrying out administrative tasks and independent work that calls for deep thinking at home, while the office is the clear favorite for collaborative, creative work. Ideally, a company that’s insistent on fostering an in-person community can clearly denote office days for given teams, ensuring that nobody shows up only having to Zoom all day. 

A company’s disaster scenario, Bloom said, is paying for an office and paying really high salaries for people in major U.S. cities, and those offices remaining empty. If the past three Labor Days have shown anything, it’s that making demands or threats about showing up are overwhelmingly likely to fall flat—flat as a pancake.