Executive search firm Spencer Stuart, which tracks C-suite turnover, found in a new report that there were 46 CEO transitions between the start of the year and Nov. 30 in the S&P 500 group of large U.S stock-market listed companies. That tally is in line with the average during pre-pandemic years. For the broader S&P 1500, the number of CEO departures was 125, also within historical averages.

Experts tell Fortune those numbers, however, camouflage what they predict will be a surge in CEO exits over the next two years. Many chief executives, including some who took the reins right before or early in the pandemic, have held onto their jobs longer than expected, waiting for a “return to normal” that has proved elusive. And now, the added one-two punch of consumer anxiety and geopolitical pressures will likely be too much for them to carry on. 

“CEOs are quite tired,” says Jason Baumgarten, head of the global CEO and boards practice at executive firm Spencer Stuart. “They’ve been waiting for a calm period to transition and thought there’d be one post-COVID but of course we fell into high inflation and macroeconomic instability.”

Baumgarten says that many S&P 500 CEOs have delayed their exits waiting for stock prices to rise so their compensation packages kick in. Recent monthly tallies produced by outplacement services firm Challenger, Christmas and Grey, which includes data from privately held companies, nonprofits, and small businesses whose CEOs don’t have stock options, has shown record turnover this year. And with the recent late-year stock market rally—the S&P 500 is up 25% this year and is within a whisker of a new all-time high—their public company peers will likely follow suit in larger numbers if it allows their stock options to vest. 

“We are going to see this high rate of CEO turnover sustain itself over the next couple of years,” says Alexander Kirss, senior principal for research at Gartner who specializes in leadership matters. 

A tough job gets tougher

Heading a multi-billion corporation has never been more draining, as new job duties, cultural shifts, and a wave of unionizations have all conspired to test the top bosses. 

During the pandemic, many CEOs got far more involved in operational matters like setting up stores to handle an e-commerce boom or sorting out supply chain nightmares. “They haven’t given those new responsibilities up,” says Gartner’s Kirss. “You can’t maintain that higher cadence forever, and that’s why we see CEOs paying the price today.” 

That extra work, along with a constantly changing business landscape, has taken a toll. “CEOs are more burnt out now than they ever were because with all the uncertainty, it made it even more difficult to do what CEOs do. Every couple of days, you have had to change your plans,” says Columbia Business School professor Stephan Meier.

Adding to stress, many CEOs are increasingly getting pulled into the social debates of the day, or facing workforces growing more interested in unionization. Starbucks finally agreed to restart bargaining this year after two years of fighting unionization, and the UAW led a successful strike and reached deals with the big three auto manufacturers. Culture wars have been especially contentious as well, especially around LGBTQ issues. Bud Light sales plummeted after promoting a trans influencer, and a backlash against Target’s Pride merchandise hurt their sales. Disney’s board also pushed Bob Chapek out in 2022 and replaced him with his predecessor, Bob Iger, in part because of how Chapek handled a feud with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis over Florida’s “Don’t Say Gay” bill. The social climate will likely become even more heated in 2024—an election year. 

Chapek won’t be the last CEO shown the door. Another sign that turnover will likely soon rise: some 15% of the 2023 CEO exits tracked by Spencer Stuart were forced dismissals, well above the rate of the last few years but in line with historical averages. That suggests that boards are less gun shy now to fire a CEO, since many feel that chief executives have had time to turn around the company and prove whether they’re up to the task.

Still, the scale of future CEO churn will likely hinge on the election and how the economy fares in 2024. 

“You’ll have people waiting until the election, and waiting until the economy’s either hard- or soft-landed and then decide if they’ll wait for the next crisis or just pull the plug,” says Stuart Spencer’s Baumgarten.