Good morning.
Donald Trump won the New Hampshire primary yesterday—despite the flood of business cash that flowed into Nikki Haley’s campaign. That sets the U.S. on course for a Trump-Biden rematch. You’re not going to hear CEOs talking much about that race (with the exception of the irrepressible Jamie Dimon.) But consultants who advise CEOs on politics say their business is booming, as companies struggle to prepare for the most confounding and disruptive U.S. election in decades.
This isn’t a South American-style election, where one side leans toward free markets and the other leans away. That would make it too easy. Instead, it’s a more complicated stew of concerns. At stake:
Taxes and regulation: Most businesses favored Trump’s corporate tax cuts and worry Biden has gone overboard empowering his regulators. On that score, this election still has a hint of an old-school GOP-Democratic split.
Environment: On this issue, most American big businesses have switched sides, becoming convinced that climate change must be addressed and calculating that a transition away from fossil fuels is inevitable. Moreover, they’ve leapt at the opportunities created by the three signature accomplishments of the Biden years: the bipartisan infrastructure bill, the CHIPS act, and the Inflation Reduction Act, which provide massive new subsidies to business. Trump could change that.
Diversity, Equity and Inclusion: In an economy where talent rules, most business leaders recognize they need to create a workplace that engages all their employees and appeals to a wide array of stakeholders. But they’ve also learned there’s a heavy price to be paid for appearing too “woke” in the eyes of the MAGA crowd—as Target, AB InBev, and Disney can attest.
Foreign policy: Companies worry what happens if a Trump administration turns away from NATO and drops support for Ukraine. Even more worry about anti-China policies—favored by both candidates—that could precipitate conflict in Asia.
Democracy: This may be the greatest concern—an impending election where neither side is prepared to accept the legitimacy of the other’s victory. Here’s how CEO Daily reader and Washington watcher Bruce Mehlman put it:
“America is careening towards a presidential rematch that two-thirds of voters don’t want. A third close election in a row may trigger claims of fraud, but unlike 2016 and 2020, there are no trusted referees to adjudicate. Republicans don’t trust the FBI or mainstream media; Democrats the Supreme Court or Fox. Emerging technologies could supercharge misinformation campaigns and multiply conspiracy theories.”
All of this has huge, if unpredictable, implications for business. So expect all CEO eyes to remain on this consequential contest—even if their mouths remain shut. Like it or not, politics this year means business.
More news below.
Alan Murray
@alansmurray
alan.murray@fortune.com
TOP NEWS
Netflix beats expectations
Netflix shares surged by 8.7% in extended trading after the streaming company reported $5.4 billion in profits for 2023, an expectations-beating 20.4% increase. Netflix ended the year with a record 260.3 million subscribers. It also announced its first big foray into live programming with a $5 billion deal to air content from World Wrestling Entertainment. Fortune
eBay layoffs
EBay will lay off 1,000 workers, or about 9% of its employees, in a bid to create a “more nimble” and responsive company. It also said it would cut an unspecified number of contractors. The auction website’s job cuts are the latest in a wave of layoffs and restructurings across the tech sector, from companies like Google, Amazon, Riot Games, and SAP. The Verge
Toyota hits a record
Toyota Motor is now Japan’s most valuable company ever. The automaker reached a market capitalization of 48.7 trillion yen ($328.8 billion) by the close of Tuesday trading, surpassing a 37-year-old record set by NTT in 1987. Toyota reported record sales in 2023 thanks to growth in Europe and China, even as the company grapples with a fake data scandal at subsidiary Daihatsu. Nikkei Asia
AROUND THE WATERCOOLER
Brex, the fintech giant valued at $12.3 billion, announced it will lay off 20% of its staff by Kylie Robison
Elon Musk responded to accusations that something ‘shady’ helped MrBeast earn $263,000 on X, but creators are still puzzled by Alexandra Sternlicht
The most sought-after remote role companies are hiring for is not in tech and pays over $100,000 a year by Orianna Rosa Royle
Workers of all generations agree on one thing: They have no idea what the right rules at work are anymore by Jane Thier
Each generation thinks they hold the power in the office—but it’s Gen X ‘quietly shifting’ the future of work by Chloe Berger
This edition of CEO Daily was curated by Nicholas Gordon.
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