At a time when the public mood about the economy is noticeably glum, the Fortune 500 CEOs in our annual survey come across as surprisingly sanguine. Only 28% think the U.S. economy will stumble into recession in the next 12 months. Almost 70% believe the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates before the end of 2024, suggesting that they think policymakers are closer to beating back inflation. And fewer than one in five believe their companies will reduce headcount this year.

Like the rest of the business world, these CEOs are preoccupied with AI, but few seem worried about its disruptive impact. Only 22% identified tech transformation as one of their chief worries. As a group, they’re also showing their admiration for AI in other ways: The CEO they most admire is Satya Nadella, the architect of Microsoft’s race to the front of the pack in generative AI. And the stocks they’d personally most like to own are Microsoft and AI-chip dominator Nvidia.

Survey conducted April 18–28, 2024.