The former president appears to have the momentum going into Tuesday, with betting markets like Polymarket and Kalshi predicting a crushing electoral college victory thanks to a possible sweep of U.S. battleground states. Shares in Trump Media and Technology Group have returned to their March 2024 highs as meme stock traders price in an impending defeat of opponent Kamala Harris. 

Arguing on Tuesday this contest ultimately came down to character, Graham claimed Trump was manifestly unsuited to serve as the president and commander-in-chief—and not just because of his attempt to overturn the 2020 vote on Jan. 6, 2021. In his view, Trump proved time and again while in office that he didn’t understand what it takes to manage the highest office in the land.

“He ran the White House like a mob boss, choosing subordinates for loyalty rather than ability. No one knows that better than the people who worked for him,” wrote Graham, who recently elicited a storm of debate over his essay praising companies that operate in “founder mode.”

Half of Trump’s cabinet appointees disavow their former boss

Former administration advisors like John Kelly, Trump’s longest-serving chief of staff, and Mark Milley, former chairman of the joint chiefs, have both denounced the real estate mogul as the textbook definition of a fascist.  

Mark Esper, defense secretary under Trump, deemed him “unfit for office” while the latter’s attorney general, Bill Barr, called his ex-boss a “consummate narcissist” who repeatedly put his own interests over those of the country. 

If you haven't decided yet who to vote for, here's why I think you should vote for Harris. pic.twitter.com/ebBMbs1c7r

— Paul Graham (@paulg) October 29, 2024

“Almost half the cabinet-level appointees from his previous administration have refused to endorse him,” Graham added. “They’re warning us what he’s like.”

Trump won’t likely be all that bothered by someone like Graham, since he has gained the very vocal support of tech entrepreneur Elon Musk, the wealthiest tycoon on earth.

The Tesla CEO has played a key role in the race in terms of organizing voter mobilization, financing his campaign, as well as drafting policy proposals. A Wall Street Journal investigation even found that he’s feeding social media users on X content designed to rally support for Trump…whether they like it or not.

Jan. 6 Capitol riot

Silicon Valley is playing easily its most visible role yet in an election, and in many ways has been more prominent than the usual Hollywood A-list celebrities who used to factor more heavily into a campaign’s PR strategy.  

A lot of attention has been focused on the so-called PayPal mafia—Musk, David Sacks, and Peter Thiel—who all spent formative years in apartheid-era South Africa before ending up working together at the digital payments startup over 20 years ago. Trump running mate JD Vance once worked for Thiel before entering politics.

But other luminaries from the tech startup scene have also thrown their weight behind Trump, including venture capitalist Marc Andreessen. He fears the Democrats are beholden to Big Tech companies less keen on driving innovation and more interested in squashing it to avoid being disrupted themselves. 

Graham—whose Y Combinator helped grow a host of successful startups including Airbnb, Coinbase, and Stripe—believes Trump disqualified himself entirely by attempting to bully Mike Pence into abusing his ceremonial function to overturn the vote during its certification on Jan. 6.

‘Trump is a crook’

When Pence refused to go along with the plan, an angry mob of Trump supporters stormed the Capitol, occupying the offices and even making off with the speaker’s lectern in what the ex-president recently characterized as a “day of love.”

“Trying to remain in power after losing an election is banana republic stuff,” Graham continued, arguing that conceding gracefully is a prerequisite of a healthy, functioning democracy. 

The YC cofounder has now staked out the middle ground, calling himself a moderate and recommending others back Kamala Harris. 

Yet his support could best be described as lukewarm, with Harris merely preferable to the only other alternative.

“Harris is a typical politician. But Trump is a crook,” Graham wrote in conclusion. “You can’t have that sort of person as president.”