- JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has shifted from a balanced stance on tariffs to expressing concern over their economic impact, noting that while consumers may not immediately react, corporate caution could grow. Market uncertainty is rising due to unpredictable U.S. trade policies, with some analysts speculating that tariffs may be a deliberate strategy to reset the economy, while others see volatility as a short-term hurdle with long-term growth potential.
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has shifted his stance slightly when it comes to tariffs. Previously the Wall Street veteran has held—overall—a balanced view on the threat President Trump’s tariffs have posed to the economy.
But the pace of policy change out of the White House is happening so rapidly that it’s pushing CEOs who were at first unfazed by the rhetoric to question how and when the trade war will end.
Markets are similarly volatile, prompted by the uncertainty of how far tariffs and reciprocal action will go.
The cherry atop the cocktail of confusion is the Oval Office’s seeming nonchalance regarding fears over economic fallout and nose-diving stocks. Not only have markets erased all of the gains made in the so-called ‘Trump bump’ but teetering on the edge of correction territory.
While billionaire banker Dimon highlighted that day-to-day consumers aren’t as concerned by the policy as analysts, he added their caution may trickle through.
“I don’t think the average American consumer who wakes up in the morning and goes to work…changes what they’re going to do because they read about tariffs,” Dimon told a Washington, D.C., summit on retirement hosted by BlackRock and the Bipartisan Policy Center.
“But I do think companies might,” he added to Semaphor’s Gina Chon. “Uncertainty is not a good thing.”
This is something of a step-change from the milder view Dimon shared only last week, when he told the Stanford Graduate School of Business that, when used correctly, tariffs can do “good stuff” which is only modestly inflationary by “0.1% or 0.2%.”
However, the man paid $39 million for his work in 2024 added that a universal 25% tariff on all imports would be, in his view, “quite recessionary and inflationary.”
Tariff recap
To briefly recap the whirlwind of tariff policy which has come out of the Oval Office since President Trump was inaugurated: The White House began with an announcement it would place 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico in order to curb immigration and drugs crossing the border. This was subsequently delayed, but then came into full effect in March despite hints from cabinet members that the rates could be lowered and soon dropped.
During that time tariffs have also been placed on China: First a 10% hike in February followed by a further 10% hike in March.
While tweaks have been made to the import duties on Canadian and Mexican goods following retaliatory policies, Trump then began a feud with the EU this week after announcing a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports—again prompting a reaction from America’s second-largest trading partner.
Sources told Fortune they were increasingly baffled by the White House’s moves, and Larry Fink said to CNN this week that there’s a “lot of uncertainty” in the market because of the action in Washington D.C.
That being said, the Blackrock CEO added: “There’s nothing wrong with a market pull back… I look at that as a buying opportunity because I’m very bullish on America.”
“The collective impact in the short run is that people are pausing, they’re pulling back,” he added. “Talking to CEOs throughout the economy, I hear that the economy is weakening as we speak.”
Uncertain headwinds
If there’s one thing the market likes, it’s a bit of stability.
At UBS Mark Haefele, chief investment officer, maintains an optimistic long-term view.
“Our base case anticipates aggressive but selective tariffs, potentially heightening volatility without derailing growth,” he wrote in a note seen by Fortune this week. “Despite short-term volatility from US policy uncertainty, robust economic growth and AI tailwinds should support equities, with the S&P 500 expected to reach 6,600 by year-end.”
At the other end of the scale Kevin Ford, FX and macro strategist at Convera, explored the theory that “very confusing U.S. trade policy” could actually be in order to engineer a ‘hard reset’ of the economy.
Ford explained in a Monday note seen by Fortune: “The ‘hard reset’ theory suggests that the new U.S. administration could be intentionally engineering a slowdown. By using tariffs, they aim to curb inflation, lower interest rates, and weaken the dollar—all to create a more stable economic landscape for Trump 47’s agenda.
“While this theory may seem far-fetched, markets are increasingly leaning into the possibility of a slowdown… As markets wrestle with persistent uncertainty, tariffs and evolving trade narratives remain key drivers of sentiment, regardless of how implausible they may appear.”
