- U.S. futures were up this morning in early trading after the S&P 500 rose 2% on Thursday. That’s nice, but the broader global markets have spoken loud and clear ever since President Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement on trade tariffs: Most Asian markets have performed way better than Western ones. Some, like Japan’s TOPIX, are even in positive territory.
Japan’s TOPIX has been in positive territory for the past six months, up 0.37% for the period. It’s an example of a global trend in the equity markets: The Asian indexes are performing much better than the major U.S. markets. India’s Nifty 50 is within one percentage point of going positive over the same time period.
The U.S.’s S&P 500, however, remains down 6% over that period, dragged underwater by the declining value of the dollar and the Trump administration’s war on free trade.
Another example: Over the past 30 days, the Nifty 50 was up 1.7%; the S&P was down 5% in the same period.
In the past 24 hours, however, there have been fresh signs of life in the U.S. The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq were all up at least 1% at the close of the markets on Thursday as investors continue to hope that the Trump administration will soften its trade agenda.
Strong earnings, particularly from Google, American Airlines, Southwest, and Hasbro, also helped drive gains. The good vibes continued in Asia and Europe this morning, and U.S. futures were in the green, too.
Here’s a snapshot of today’s action:
- The S&P 500 rose 2%, notching a third straight day of gains. (Reality check: It’s still down 6.75% YTD.)
- The Nasdaq Composite was up 2.74%.
- Palantir was up nearly 7%.
- U.S. futures contracts for the S&P were up 0.49% this morning, pre–opening bell.
- In Japan, the Nikkei 225 was up 1.9% this morning.
- Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.3%.
- China’s main indexes were flat/mixed.
- The Stoxx Europe 600 was up 0.35% in early trading.
- U.K.’s FTSE 100 was marginally positive this morning, up 0.15% in early trading.
How damaging has the flight of capital out of U.S. markets been?
Goldman Sachs put some number on that in a note to clients on the “flight of foreign investors out of U.S. assets,” sent yesterday by analyst Daniel Chavez and his team: “This dynamic poses a substantial risk to equity valuations because foreign investors entered 2025 with a record 18% ownership share of U.S. equities. We estimate foreign investors have sold roughly $60 billion of U.S. stocks since the start of March. High-frequency fund flow data suggest European investors have driven the selling, while other regions have generally continued to buy U.S. stocks.”
There is no mystery as to why investors have been moving their money East: It’s Trump. In a typically arch note to clients this morning, UBS Global Wealth Management chief economist Paul Donovan wrote: “China said it was not negotiating with the U.S. over trade. U.S. President Trump avowed that the U.S. was talking with someone (who they are talking to is a secret, apparently). Things like this might possibly be contributing to the economically damaging levels of uncertainty.”
