- Equities look surprisingly buoyant. The S&P 500 had a particularly good 5-day streak, rising 6.4% by Friday. U.S. futures contracts on the S&P were flat this morning, prior to the opening bell. Early trading in Europe and Japan was robust as investors brushed off a swathe of reports showing dramatic declines in the U.S. import trade.
Global stock markets looked buoyant this morning before the opening of the New York Stock Exchange despite a swathe of reports suggesting that shipping and freight imports into the U.S. were in a dramatic decline. Among them, Apollo Global Management published a slide deck arguing that the reduction in imports would be enough to trigger a recession in the U.S. starting in the summer.
Here’s where we stand this morning before the opening bell in New York:
- The S&P 500 closed up 0.74% on Friday but remains down 6% YTD.
- Futures contracts based on the S&P priced in a marginal decline this morning, pre-opening bell.
- Tesla stock was up 9.8% on the day and was up a further 2.2% this morning in aftermarket trading.
- The three main China indexes—the CSI 300, the SSE and the Hang Seng—were down this morning.
- Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 0.38%.
- Momentum continued in Europe, where the Stoxx Europe 600 was up 0.7% in early trading.
- Separately, the bond term premium—the extra yield demanded by investors for holding U.S. government debt—is at its highest since 2014, reflecting how nervous investors are right now.
The markets seem to be reflecting relatively positive Q1 earnings news—however, none of those earnings calls reflect the period after President Trump announced his “Liberation Day” tariffs on April 2.
The effect of the tariff announcement on ocean shipping has already been dramatic, according to Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Sløk. “Daily data for container traffic from China to the U.S. is collapsing … The consequence will be empty shelves in US stores in a few weeks and Covid-like shortages for consumers and for firms using Chinese products as intermediate goods,” he wrote.
Sløk also noted that the number of Americans making only minimum payments on their credit card debt has hit a record high that exceeds even the pandemic period.
The Port of Los Angeles expects arrivals to be one-third lower in May. Container bookings are 45% down, according to the tracking service Vizion. Ryan Peterson, CEO of Flexport, a supply chain logistics company, said on X recently, “In the 3 weeks since the tariffs took effect, ocean container bookings from China to the United States are down over 60% industry wide.”
Imports could decline 20% in the second half of the year, the National Retail Federation predicts. The CEOs of Walmart, Target, and Home Depot privately warned President Trump last week that shortages and price rises are coming.
