“This is going to lead to the construction of a lot of plants, in this case auto plants,” Trump said upon announcing the tariffs in March. “You’re going to see numbers like you haven’t seen…in terms of employment. You’re going to have a lot of people making a lot of cars.”

But the goal to boost U.S. manufacturing work by alienating trading allies hasn’t panned out yet. In reality, most “American-made” vehicles aren’t completely manufactured in the U.S.; parts of these cars—including Ford, Toyota, and Honda—are assembled in Mexico or Canada before being finished in the States. Because of skyrocketing prices from Trump’s 25% tariffs, it’s estimated there will be between 10% and 20% fewer cars produced across North America, according to Cox Automotive. With a decline in demand, fewer workers would be needed to keep factories running. 

“Additional tariffs will increase costs on American consumers, lower the total number of vehicles sold inside the U.S., and reduce U.S. auto exports—all before any new manufacturing or jobs are created in this country,” John Bozzella, CEO of automakers’ industry trade group Alliance for Automotive Innovation, said in a statement. 

Trump’s 25% tariffs and EV policies slamming the auto industry 

It’s unclear how many auto and manufacturing jobs could be wiped out, but some experts aren’t optimistic on the outlook in the near-term. One Pennsylvania car manufacturer already announced a 10% layoff of its unionized workers, pointing to tariffs and “reduced demand” as reasoning. There could be more to come.

“The automakers are in a serious predicament,” Patrick Anderson, president of Michigan think tank Anderson Economic Group, told CNN. “They’re going to have to make tough decisions about what production to continue, what not to make…We expect implementation of these tariffs to affect jobs across the United States.”

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President’s Trump’s targeting of green vehicle production could throw a wrench into the budding career path for Gen Z. On his first day in office, President Trump signed an executive order that did away with the U.S.’s goal to have half of new cars sold in the U.S. be electric powered by 2030. He also scrapped tax credits for EV vehicles and paused the federal funding of thousands of charging stations. This could lower demand for new EV manufacturing in America by 40% over the next five years, according to an analysis from researchers at Princeton University, putting half of existing EV plants at risk of closure. 

This choice could jilt hundreds of students in training programs for an EV career path, with company-sponsored apprenticeships on the chopping block. Companies like Panasonic, for example, have been channeling Kansas City Kansas Community College students through its eight-week course, looking to bring them into the fold at its $4 billion EV battery factory nearby after graduation. Other schools in Illinois, Arizona, North Carolina, and California have similar training-to-workforce EV programs, with Tesla also showing a vested interest in bringing more people into the industry.

But with a projected lowering of demand for EV cars, the outlook for the programs—and the career prospects of aspiring blue-collar workers—hangs in the balance of the Trump administration’s policies. 

Gen Z’s trade career aspirations

Trade work is rising in popularity as Gen Z ditch office life for a shot at stable, six-figure jobs.

Student enrollment in vocational-focused community colleges shot up 16% in 2023, the highest level since the National Student Clearinghouse started data collection in 2018. That year there was a 23% uptick in participation in construction trades, and a 7% hike in HVAC and vehicle maintenance repair programs, from 2022. And with 3.8 million manufacturing jobs coming to the U.S. by 2033, Gen Z has a chance to cash in on a growing industry. 

Apprenticeships and trade programs have been heralded as ways for Gen Z to get steady work without taking on thousands in student debt attending a four-year college. With some U.S. colleges charging as much as $95,000 in tuition, blue-collar work can be a low-cost, time-efficient way to step into the workforce, especially when many students are wary of spending over $38,000 a year to pursue college degrees.