The most obvious unpredictable variable is the looming tariff deadline. President Trump gave the U.S.’s various trading partners until July 9 to reach a deal with the White House, but the president admitted over the weekend that his administration has not managed to reach agreements with most countries. Instead, many of them will simply receive a letter setting a rate of at least 25%, he said.

The effect of those tariffs is already starting to drag on the economy, according to Samuel Tombs and Oliver Allen of Pantheon Macroeconomics: “The 0.3% fall in consumers’ real spending in May and big downward revisions to earlier months mean spending likely rose at an annualized pace of only about 1½% in the first half this year, well below last year’s 3% average. Moreover, the lack of momentum recently, looming tariff-driven price hikes, and an imminent deterioration in the labor market all suggest spending will slow further in Q3,” they wrote in a recent research note.

Many investors seem to be expecting that in the event of bad news, either Trump will come to their rescue by extending the tariff deadline or the U.S. Federal Reserve will lower interest rates later in the year. Both scenarios would be good for stocks.

“As we step into the second half of the year, a strange calm has settled in,” Kevin Ford of Convera told clients this morning. “Major fears have started to fade, and despite all the noise, equity markets are flirting with all-time highs (new ATH for the S&P500). That said, the horizon still looks hazy, and plenty of questions remain unanswered: What about tariffs? If there’s one thing we’ve learned about this administration, it’s that deadlines are more like guidelines. Case in point: the July 9 expiration of the 90-day reciprocal tariffs reprieve. Markets aren’t holding their breath. Many expect the White House to kick the can down the road again, buying more time for ongoing negotiations with Europe, Japan, and South Korea.”

The Fed might also deliver the interest rate cuts that Trump has demanded.

“The market will focus back on the macro narrative with the interplay between labour market data and Fed policy expectations and increasing attention paid to the potential early appointment of a new Fed Chair. The broad risk on sentiment is leaning on modest and temporary weak growth in 2H25, on the back of payback frontloading and tariffs. The underlying assumption is that the subsequent Fed easing will be enough to trigger a return to trend growth in early 2026,” JP Morgan’s Fabio Bassi and his team wrote in a note seen by Fortune.

Here’s a snapshot of the action prior to the opening bell in New York:

• S&P 500 futures rose 0.37% this morning, premarket. 
• The S&P 500 closed up 0.52% on Friday, hitting a new record high (6,173).
• U.K. and Europe markets were flat in early trading.
• Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 0.84%.
• The major China indexes were up this morning, as was South Korea, but Hong Kong and India were down.