Speaking at the Economic Club of Washington, D.C., on Thursday in a conversation with Carlyle Group co-founder David Rubenstein, Solomon discussed the state of the U.S. economy, the impact of rising public debt, and the AI investment boom in front of a packed audience.

An outlook on growth

Goldman Sachs (No. 32 on the Fortune 500) recently reported stronger-than-expected third-quarter earnings, driven by robust investment banking fees and trading revenue. When Rubenstein asked Solomon whether the U.S. faces a near-term recession, Solomon offered cautious optimism.

“We’ve got a big, diverse economy,” he said. “It’s in pretty good shape at the moment. There are things we cannot see that could set it off, but I think the chance of a recession in the near term is low.” Solomon pointed to the buildout of AI infrastructure as a key force supporting growth.

“You have six or seven large companies that are going to spend $350 billion [combined] this year on AI infrastructure—that has an effect on growth,” he said. As AI becomes integrated into enterprise operations, Solomon expects meaningful productivity gains.

Turning to the country’s rising debt burden, Solomon said it will result in a “reckoning” if the economy does not grow faster. “The path out really isn’t a revenue path out,” he said. “The path out is a growth path.”

The AI boom

When Rubenstein asked whether the massive market capitalizations of major tech firms, some nearing $5 trillion, signal a potential bubble, Solomon offered a historical perspective.

“Whenever you have an acceleration in technology and people get excited about it, you see significant capital formation by new companies trying to capitalize on that opportunity,” he said. “We’ve seen this before through history.” He added, “It won’t be a straight line.” Solomon further discussed today’s AI wave.

The opportunity set with AI is “enormous,” he said. “There will be winners and losers, and it’s hard to pick them now.” A lot of the capital being deployed will not produce adequate returns—and some won’t produce any returns at all, he added.

Reflecting on past investment cycles, Solomon recalled then-Fed Chair Alan Greenspan’s famous warning about “irrational exuberance” in 1996.

“At that time, the Nasdaq was near 1,300,” Solomon explained. “About three and a half years later, it rose above 5,000. Ultimately, there were adjustments and drawdowns.” The trend for AI investment is real, he said. “There’s real productivity—but these things never move in a straight line,” he added.

Solomon’s remarks reflect a broader theme across Wall Street: optimism about AI’s potential to drive growth, tempered by awareness that not every investor, or company, will come out ahead.

Have a good weekend.

Sheryl Estrada
sheryl.estrada@fortune.com

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Leaderboard

Fortune 500 Power Moves

Homer Bhullar was promoted to SVP and CFO at Valero Energy Corporation (No. 34), effective January 1, 2026. Bhullar will succeed Jason Fraser, who will remain as EVP and CFO until he steps down on December 31, and will retire as an employee in the first quarter of 2026. Bhullar has served as Valero’s VP of investor relations and finance since April 29, 2021. He joined Valero in 2014. 

Paul Todd was appointed CFO of Fiserv, Inc. (No. 208), effective October 31. Todd, who previously served as CFO of Global Payments, succeeds Robert Hau, who will serve as a senior advisor through the first quarter of 2026 to support a transition. Todd has been serving as a special advisor to the executive leadership team for the last several weeks.

Kevin Boone was appointed EVP and CFO of CSX (No. 301), succeeding Sean Pelkey, who has departed the company.  Boone joined CSX in 2017 and has held several key leadership roles. Most recently, he served as EVP and chief commercial officer. Boone also served as VP of corporate affairs and investor relations at CSX. 

Paul Kuehneman was appointed interim CFO and controller at Hormel Foods Corporation (No. 352), effective October 27. Kuehneman succeeds Jacinth Smiley, who is leaving the company and will be pursuing other opportunities, according to the announcement. Kuehneman has more than 30 years of business and finance experience at Hormel Foods, holding a variety of leadership roles, most recently, VP and controller.

Every Friday morning, the weekly Fortune 500 Power Moves column tracks Fortune 500 company C-suite shifts—see the most recent edition. 

More notable moves this week:

Mala Murthy was appointed EVP and CFO of TriNet (NYSE: TNET), a provider of human resources solutions, effective November 28. Murthy will succeed TriNet's current CFO, Kelly Tuminelli, who will serve as a special advisor to the CEO through March 16, 2026. Murthy most recently served as CFO of Teladoc Health. Before that, she held several senior executive positions at American Express, including CFO of its global commercial services segment. She also previously served in FP&A, treasury, and corporate development and strategy leadership positions with PepsiCo. 

Michelle Turner was appointed CFO of Teradyne, Inc. (Nasdaq: TER), a provider of automated test equipment and advanced robotics, effective November 3. Turner replaces Sanjay Mehta, who has served as Teradyne’s CFO since 2019. Turner brings 30 years of financial and strategic leadership experience. Before joining Teradyne, she was the CFO for L3Harris Technologies. Turner has also held a variety of senior financial management and leadership roles in Johnson & Johnson, BHP Billiton, Raytheon, and Honeywell.

Big Deal

Going deeper

"Crypto founders are getting very rich, very fast—again" by Jeff John Roberts

"Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella says Bill Gates told him his big bet on OpenAI would be a flop: ‘Yeah, you’re going to burn this billion dollars’" by Marco Quiroz-Gutierrez

"Michael Dell’s son aims to transform the home power business by selling electricity and backup battery power like a Costco membership" by Jordan Blum

"Harvard professor calls out ‘lie’ of needing 8 hours of sleep a night, says it’s Industrial Era ‘nonsense’" Ashley Lutz 

Overheard

"Silicon Valley is optimizing for the wrong metric. Most people working in high-stakes domains recognize now that AI will not take every job, but with that realization comes a harder truth: the industry has been building autonomy when it should have been building  accountability." 

—Joel Hron, chief technology officer at Thomson Reuters, writes in a Fortune opinion piece.