• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Shark Tank's Kevin O'Leary says if he were 25 today, he'd chase these two booming opportunities in the world of AI

2

Ex-PepsiCo CEO Indra Nooyi worked from midnight until 5 a.m. as a receptionist to pay for her Yale degree—and she says ‘respect went up’ because of it

3

Even as Elon Musk calls philanthropy ‘very hard,’ everyday Americans gave a record $617 billion—despite feeling the squeeze over the cost of living

1

Shark Tank's Kevin O'Leary says if he were 25 today, he'd chase these two booming opportunities in the world of AI

2

Ex-PepsiCo CEO Indra Nooyi worked from midnight until 5 a.m. as a receptionist to pay for her Yale degree—and she says ‘respect went up’ because of it

3

Even as Elon Musk calls philanthropy ‘very hard,’ everyday Americans gave a record $617 billion—despite feeling the squeeze over the cost of living
EconomyFederal Reserve

Fed speeches reveal split that puts rate cut in jeopardy: persistent inflation vs ‘low-hire, low-fire’ labor market

By
Christopher Rugaber
Christopher Rugaber
and
The Associated Press
The Associated Press
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Christopher Rugaber
Christopher Rugaber
and
The Associated Press
The Associated Press
Down Arrow Button Icon
November 18, 2025, 5:12 PM ET
Jerome Powell
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell departs after a news conference after the Federal Open Market Committee meeting Wednesday, Oct. 29, 2025, at the Federal Reserve Board Building in Washington. AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

What was once seen as a near-certain cut in interest rates next month now looks more like a coin flip as Federal Reserve officials sharply disagree over the economy’s health and whether stubborn inflation or weak hiring represent a bigger threat.

Recommended Video

In several speeches in the past week, some policymakers have registered greater concern over persistent inflation in an echo of the “affordability” concerns that played a large role in elections earlier this month.

At the same time, another camp is much more concerned about meager hiring and the threat that the “low-hire, low-fire“ job market could worsen into one where layoffs become more widespread.

The turmoil on the Fed’s 19-member interest-rate setting committee reflects a deeply uncertain economic outlook brought about by multiple factors, including tariffs, artificial intelligence, and changes in immigration and tax policies.

“It’s reflective of a ton of uncertainty,” said Luke Tilley, chief economist at M&T Bank. “It’s not surprising at all that there’s a wide divergence of opinions.”

Fewer rate cuts by the Fed could leave borrowing costs for homes and cars elevated. More expensive mortgages and auto loans contribute to the widespread view, according to polls, that the cost of living is too high.

Some Fed watchers say that an unusually high number of dissents are possible at the December 9-10 meeting, regardless of whether the central bank reduces rates or not. Krishna Guha, an analyst at Evercore ISI, said a decision to cut could lead to as many as four or five dissents, while a decision to keep rates unchanged could produce three.

Four dissenting votes would be highly unusual, given the Fed’s history of seeking consensus. The last time four officials dissented was in 1992, under then-Chair Alan Greenspan.

Fed governor Christopher Waller on Monday noted that critics of the Fed often accuse it of “group think,” since many of its decisions are made unanimously.

“People who are accusing us of this, get ready,” Waller said Monday in remarks in London. “You might see the least group think you’ve seen … in a long time.”

The differences have been exacerbated by the government shutdown’s interruption of economic data, a particular challenge for a Fed that Chair Jerome Powell has often described as “data dependent.” The government’s last jobs report was for August, and inflation for September.

September jobs data will finally be published Thursday, and are expected to show a small gain of 50,000 jobs that month and an unchanged unemployment rate at a still-low 4.3%.

For now, Wall Street investors put the odds of a December rate cut at 50-50, according to CME Fedwatch, down sharply from nearly 94% a month ago. The decline has contributed to the stock market’s drops this week.

After cutting their key rate in September for the first time this year, Fed policymakers signaled they expected to cut twice more, in October and December.

But after implementing a second reduction Oct. 29, Powell poured cold water on the prospects of another cut, describing it as “not a foregone conclusion — far from it.”

And speeches last week by a raft of regional Fed officials pushed the market odds of a December cut even lower. Susan Collins, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, said, “in all of my conversations with contacts across New England, I hear concerns about elevated prices.”

Collins said that keeping the Fed’s key rate at its current level of about 3.9% would help bring inflation down. The economy “has been holding up quite well” even with interest rates where they are, she added.

Several other regional presidents voiced similar concerns, including Raphael Bostic of the Atlanta Fed, Alberto Musalem of the St. Louis Fed, and Jeffrey Schmid at the Kansas City Fed. Musalem, Collins, and Schmid are among the 12 officials who vote on policy this year. Schmid dissented in October in favor of keeping rates unchanged.

“When I talk to contacts in my district, I hear continued concern over the pace of price increases,” Schmid said Friday. “Some of this has to do with the effect of tariffs on input prices, but it is not just tariffs — or even primarily tariffs — that has people worried. I hear concerns about rising health care costs and insurance premiums, and I hear a lot about electricity.”

On Monday, however, Waller argued that sluggish hiring is a bigger concern, and renewed his call for a rate cut next month.

“The labor market is still weak and near stall speed,” he said. “Inflation through September continued to show relatively small effects from tariffs and support the hypothesis that tariffs … are not a persistent source of inflation.”

Waller also dismissed the concern — voiced by Schmid and others — that the Fed should keep rates elevated because inflation has topped the Fed’s 2% target for five years. So far that hasn’t led the public to worry that inflation will stay elevated for an extended period, Waller noted.

“You can’t just sort of say it’s been above target for five years, so I’m not going to cut,” he added. “You got to give us better answers than that.”

There could be consensus for an interest rate cut if, say, new data for October and November show the economy shedding jobs, according to Esther George, the former president of the Kansas City Fed.

It’s also worth noting that many economists had expected multiple dissents in September, but instead only Stephen Miran, a governor appointed that month by President Donald Trump, voted against the rate cut decision, in favor of an even bigger reduction.

“Registering a dissent is a hard decision, and I think you’re going to find people that are speaking today that wouldn’t follow through with a vote in that direction,” she said. “I think you’re going to find enough consensus, whichever way they go.”

Subscribe to Fortune Gulf Brief. Every Tuesday, this new newsletter delivers clear-eyed, authoritative intelligence on the deals, decisions, policies, and power shifts shaping one of the world’s most consequential regions, written for the people who need to act on it. Sign up here.
About the Authors
By Christopher Rugaber
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
By The Associated Press
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in Economy

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Economy

China’s birth rate just hit its lowest point since 1949—and Trip.com cofounder James Liang thinks that’s a threat to innovation
AsiaChina
China’s birth rate just hit its lowest point since 1949—and Trip.com cofounder James Liang thinks that’s a threat to innovation
By Nicholas GordonJuly 7, 2026
2 hours ago
White man glasses gray hair smiling.
PoliticsBernie Sanders
The man who ran Bernie’s campaign says Democrats are still making the same mistakes with Democratic Socialists, and they should laud Mamdani’s win
By Catherina GioinoJuly 6, 2026
11 hours ago
t
CommentaryParenting
Babylist CEO: The Trump Accounts gold rush is overlooking moms
By Natalie GordonJuly 6, 2026
14 hours ago
The yen is quietly crashing as Japan’s debt crisis bleeds into currency markets, and efforts to halt the slide are ‘doomed to fail,’ economist says
EconomyCurrency
The yen is quietly crashing as Japan’s debt crisis bleeds into currency markets, and efforts to halt the slide are ‘doomed to fail,’ economist says
By Jason MaJuly 6, 2026
16 hours ago
Billionaire entrepreneur Mark Cuban
SuccessWealth
Billionaire Mark Cuban says it’s ‘embarrassing’ to not pay employees well—and a $20 minimum wage should be standard
By Emma BurleighJuly 6, 2026
17 hours ago
Torsten Slok holds his hands apart as he speaks on stage.
AIProductivity
Top economist says AI just hasn’t delivered on the productivity hype—and it means a ‘painful repricing’ of markets is very possible
By Sasha RogelbergJuly 6, 2026
20 hours ago

Most Popular

Shark Tank's Kevin O'Leary says if he were 25 today, he'd chase these two booming opportunities in the world of AI
AI
Shark Tank's Kevin O'Leary says if he were 25 today, he'd chase these two booming opportunities in the world of AI
By Marco Quiroz-GutierrezJuly 5, 2026
2 days ago
Ex-PepsiCo CEO Indra Nooyi worked from midnight until 5 a.m. as a receptionist to pay for her Yale degree—and she says ‘respect went up’ because of it
Success
Ex-PepsiCo CEO Indra Nooyi worked from midnight until 5 a.m. as a receptionist to pay for her Yale degree—and she says ‘respect went up’ because of it
By Preston ForeJuly 6, 2026
17 hours ago
Even as Elon Musk calls philanthropy ‘very hard,’ everyday Americans gave a record $617 billion—despite feeling the squeeze over the cost of living
Success
Even as Elon Musk calls philanthropy ‘very hard,’ everyday Americans gave a record $617 billion—despite feeling the squeeze over the cost of living
By Preston ForeJuly 4, 2026
3 days ago
Gen Z was 'jaded about employment before we ever entered the workforce'—now psychologists say the stare has hardened into something worse
Economy
Gen Z was 'jaded about employment before we ever entered the workforce'—now psychologists say the stare has hardened into something worse
By Nick LichtenbergJuly 6, 2026
1 day ago
Current price of oil as of July 6, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of oil as of July 6, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 6, 2026
20 hours ago
Egg companies made $1.22 billion in profit off a $6 carton — now they’re buying their way out of a price-fixing case with 53 million donated eggs
Law
Egg companies made $1.22 billion in profit off a $6 carton — now they’re buying their way out of a price-fixing case with 53 million donated eggs
By Wyatte Grantham-Philips and The Associated PressJuly 2, 2026
5 days ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.