That’s what PitchBook and the National Venture Capital Association’s newly-released 2025 data on venture capital shows—an uneven market that’s consolidated around a few perceived winners in the most-talked-about sector, AI.

2025 U.S. VC deal value soared to $339.4 billion, not far from 2021 highs of $358.2 billion. And yet: 50% of that 2025 deal value was invested in just 0.05% of the completed deals. And those deals are, of course, the ones you’d expect, from OpenAI’s $40 billion funding round to Databricks’s $4 billion Series L round that valued the company at $134 billion. (Miniscule compared to OpenAI on paper, last valued at $500 billion and reportedly in conversations at valuations as high as $830 billion.)

“If you look beyond AI, dealmaking isn’t hitting new highs,” said Kyle Stanford, PitchBook director of U.S. venture research, via email. “A majority of first-time financings are AI companies too. So venture has made a wholesale change in what is being funded. 

Despite deal value nearing the stratospheric heights of 2021, Stanford points out that exit value is just 34% of the 2021 peak. 

“And fundraising is falling because of it,” Stanford added. “When you see fundraising reach only $66.1 billion of new commitments, it starts to hit home just how much LPs are hurting from the lack of exits.”

In short, something’s gotta give. 

It’s important to right-size this—not all of the private markets are quite so lopsided. Consider PitchBook’s 2025 private equity breakdown: Though PE firms are also struggling with fundraising, 2025 ultimately saw private equity’s deal value surpass $1 trillion for the second time in its history ($1.2 trillion for 2025, slightly under the 2021 high of $1.3 trillion). That $1.2 trillion was decisively spread across more than 9,000 deals. 

What is the natural evolution for a market where an overwhelming amount of capital is consolidating around a few companies and a few firms? Andreessen Horowitz just raised $15 billion. PitchBook’s Stanford and I have spoken a lot over the last two years about the challenges new VCs face in raising money, and a16z’s fundraise alone is a decisive signal.

“LPs are focusing on established firms,” said Stanford via email. “Seeing a firm like a16z, no matter how name-brand it has become, raise $15 billion in a down market is astonishing and shows where priorities lie.” 

Good Day… As you sail into your long weekend, here’s a fun $7 million seed funding round scoop on Good Day, cofounded by Kyle Hency, who started irreverent shorts brand Chubbies with college friends. He sold that company in 2021, and now he’s back. Read more here.

We’re off for MLK, as I hope you are. See you Tuesday, 

Allie Garfinkle
X: @agarfinks
Email: alexandra.garfinkle@fortune.com
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Joey Abrams curated the deals section of today’s newsletter. Subscribe here.

VENTURE CAPITAL

- Higgsfield, a San Francisco-based AI-powered generative video platform, raised $80 million in a Series A extension from Accel, AI Capital Partners, and Menlo Ventures.

- Midnite, a London, U.K.-based sportsbook and casino operator, raised $35 million in Series C funding. The Raine Group led the round and was joined by existing investors Play Ventures, Discerning Capital, and others.

- GovDash, a New York City-based AI-powered platform designed to assist companies in winning and managing government contracts, raised $30 million in Series B funding. Mucker Capital and BCI led the round and were joined by Northzone and Y Combinator.

- Otto Sport AI, a Minneapolis, Minn.-based AI-powered youth sports management and analytics platform, raised $16.5 million in seed funding. Mamba Growth Equity and Rally Ventures led the round.

- Musical AI, an Ottawa, Canada-based attribution and rights management platform for generative AI in music, raised $4.5 million in funding. Heavybit led the round and was joined by BDC and Build Ventures.

- AlphaLum, a Lausanne, Switzerland-based augmented reality and optical sensor company, raised CHF 3.4 million ($4.2 million) in seed funding. Vsquared Ventures led the round.

- ModeInspect, a Prague, Czech Republic and San Francisco-based live design platform, raised $3.4 million in seed funding. Partech led the round and was joined by Credo Ventures, Angelinvest, and others.

PRIVATE EQUITY

- Accel-KKR acquired a majority stake in Nutrislice, a Denver, Colo.-based digital dining platform designed to combine digital menus, signage, food labels, and ordering in one platform. Financial terms were not disclosed. 

- Ardian agreed to acquire a minority stake in IVB Wellness Lab, a Valencia, Spain-based dietary supplements company. Financial terms were not disclosed.

- Neuberger Berman acquired a minority stake in Ryan, a Plano, Texas-based tax firm. Financial terms were not disclosed. 

- Platinum Equity acquired a majority stake in Tongrun International, a Bonham, Texas-based sheet metal solutions company. Financial terms were not disclosed.

- Synergi, a portfolio company of Eureka Equity Partners, acquired Alpine Group, an Andover, U.K.-based designer, manufacturer, and installer of staircases. Financial terms were not disclosed.

- The Colt Group, backed by Capstreet, acquired Watertap, a Wixom, Mich.-based pipeline services company. Financial terms were not disclosed.

EXITS

- Noritsu Koki agreed to acquire SENQCIA Corporation, a Tokyo, Japan-based manufacturer of products designed to increase the safety of buildings and infrastructure, from Lone Star for approximately $519 million.

OTHERS

- Cloudflare acquired Human Native, a London, U.K.-based AI data marketplace. Financial terms were not disclosed.

PEOPLE

- Ambienta, a Milan, Italy-based asset manager, promoted Massimiliano Lechi, Damien Marty, and Milena Torciano to private equity partners.

- Bling Capital, a Miami Beach, Fla.-based venture capital firm, promoted Eric Theis to partner. 

- Renovus Capital Partners, a Wayne, Pa.-based private equity firm, promoted Pat Heath to principal, John Matthews to vice president, and Adam Swack to vice president.