This scenario is not just a theoretical possibility. China has already imposed export controls on lithium-ion batteries and graphite anodes — controls that took effect in November 2025 and remain in place, with a temporary suspension of enhanced licensing requirements currently in force through November 2026. Preventing this crisis will require the United States to not just onshore previous-generation dependencies, but lead in production of the next generation of battery technology.

China spent decades developing graphite production technology, building the processing plants, and securing the best natural resources for graphite mining around the globe. The country now produces nearly 100% of the world’s anode supply and over 80% of battery cells made globally, according to BloombergNEF. Even if the U.S. manages to expand domestic graphite production, it will be prohibitively expensive and we will be entering the race on the last lap, competing against supply chains that are larger, more sophisticated, highly subsidized, and fully entrenched. Spending years and billions of dollars to remain behind is not a plan — it’s a trap.

A Better Path: Leapfrog to Next-Generation Materials

Industrial leadership isn’t built from replicating the past — it comes from building the future. That next-generation material already exists — it was invented in America, and it is being scaled to global industrial-scale capacity today on American soil.

Silicon–carbon (Si/C) anodes outperform graphite in every dimension that matters to the next generation of technology. Compared to graphite, Si/C anodes are half the size, five times lighter, and can deliver double the power and charging speed. One ton of Si/C anode material displaces five tons of graphite, enabling much more efficient manufacturing. And batteries made with these anodes are 20%–40% more energy dense, meaning longer run times, more range, or smaller batteries.

These are not laboratory projections. Sila has been in the market since 2021, with technology shipped in millions of devices. Crucially, the entire supply chain traces back to quartz — essentially sand — with no dependency on China.

The transition to silicon is already happening. Right now, every major phone maker in China is powering flagship devices with silicon-carbon batteries. Silicon is also being implemented in the next generation of drones, enabling longer flight times and larger payloads — capabilities that are becoming a strategic priority as geopolitical tensions rise around the world. Billions of consumer electronics will be silicon-powered within three years. The automotive sector is following, as silicon’s ability to deliver longer driving range and lower costs at scale begins to reshape EV battery procurement.

We are at the inflection point. The question is whether the U.S. leads that shift or watches it happen elsewhere.

Building the Next Battery Ecosystem

The hardest challenge in energy technology has never been invention — it has been scale. Historically, the U.S. has excelled at the first part and outsourced the second. That has to change. The demand for batteries outside of China is set to triple within five years — driven by AI, data centers, drones, EVs, and defense — and the gap between what current supply chains can produce and what the market will need is widening fast. To close the gap, the world needs to build roughly 2,000 GWh of anode production capacity, equivalent to tens of billions in annual output. The best way to address this is to localize the battery supply chain in the United States.

Sila opened the first GWh-scale silicon anode plant in the Western world in Moses Lake, Washington in late 2025. It is a start, and the existing site has the land and infrastructure to support more than 200 GWh per year of expansion. But government and industry need to meet this moment together. That means ensuring advanced manufacturers — not just data centers — have access to the grid power they require, and that policy incentives actually require supply chains — not just finished batteries — to be built on American soil.

The IRA brought battery factories to the United States, but it did not bring the supply chain. We can’t afford to make that mistake again.

The Strategic Opportunity

Batteries are no longer just a component — they are foundational infrastructure – for defense, for the grid, for transportation, and for the AI computing buildout.

If the U.S. invests in attempting to replicate China’s graphite supply chain, we will spend the next decade falling further behind. There is no catching up. But if we invest in building the silicon anode ecosystem that is already replacing graphite — here, at scale, on American soil, with American IP — we can lead.

Leadership in this industry will not be decided by manufacturing volume — it will be decided by who is manufacturing with the best technology and the most secure supply. The race to secure a domestic battery supply chain will be won by the countries that build the technologies and supply chains that come next. We invented this one. Now we have to build and scale it.

The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of Fortune.