The new regulation announced to parliament Wednesday by Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto mandates that a recently set up state-owned enterprise will handle the country’s exports of coal, palm oil and iron alloys by September.

Prabowo said one aim is to increase tax revenues. That would help restore dwindling government reserves that have been exhausted by the energy shocks from the war in Iran. Given Indonesia’s role as a major commodities exporter, the new rules likely will ripple across international supply chains.

Indonesia is the largest exporter of thermal coal, which is burned for energy, and palm oil, a key ingredient in everything from cosmetics to biofuels. The Southeast Asian nation of roughly 287 million people also has the world’s biggest known reserve of nickel, a mineral needed for electric vehicle batteries and stainless steel.

As Indonesia’s largest trading partner, China will feel the brunt of this policy pivot, experts said.

China is closely watching Indonesia’s “initiative to nationalize” and considering “how it would impact China’s further cooperation,” said Lei Xie with the UK-based think tank Third Generation Environmentalism. “The future path that Indonesia is taking is highly important for China.”

The swiftness of the new rule’s implementation could affect access to needed resources for China’s clean technologies industries, which use Indonesian commodities to supply growing demand for renewable energy. Chinese companies are major investors in many Indonesian industries, including critical minerals.

“Indonesia has become vital to China” since it supplies the commodities that “underpin China’s dominance in electric vehicles, batteries, and industrial manufacturing,” said Li Shuo with the US-based Asia Society Policy Institute’s China Climate Hub. “But the relationship is evolving.”

If handled well, the centralization of Indonesia’s trade may also open the door to more American investment, analysts said, as it competes with China for key resources.

“Such a move is a clear signal that U.S. investment is being attracted to come to Indonesia even more,” said Bhima Yudhistira with the Jakarta-based Center of Economic and Law Studies. He called the new policy a “hostile takeover” that will mean every contract in industries controlled by China may be revised.

Indonesia tightens its grip on natural resources

Prabowo told lawmakers Indonesia had lost as much as $908 billion because exporters underreport their sales to avoid paying taxes and other fees.

“The primary objective of this policy is to strengthen oversight and monitoring — and to combat under-invoicing, transfer pricing and the diversion of export proceeds,” he said.

The new entity taking over Indonesia’s exports of these commodities — PT Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia — was officially registered the day before Prabowo’s announcement. It is 99% owned by Danantara, the sovereign wealth fund the president launched last year, and will strengthen the government’s influence on setting the price of its commodities.

This “represents a governance reform, a step toward strengthening our credibility in managing strategic commodity trade in an orderly and accountable manner,” said Yvonne Mewengkang with Indonesia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

From June to August, private companies are expected to turn over their import and export transactions to Danantara, which by September should manage all trade transactions with foreign buyers.

“There will be an explanation for investors later, so that stakeholders will be informed before June 1,” said Airlangga Hartarto, the coordinating economic minister in Indonesia. “After all, in the initial phase, we are focusing on transparency in reporting.”

Trade analysts are skeptical that the government will be able to seamlessly take over trade in all those industries within less than four months.

New policies hurt Chinese industries

China is Indonesia’s top trading partner and one of its biggest sources of foreign direct investment.

Chinese firms dominate Indonesia’s nickel industry and China is a top importer of the resources affected by the trade takeover.

Other major importers of Indonesian palm oil, coal and nickel include the U.S. and the European Union. India, Japan and South Korea and neighboring Malaysia, Vietnam and the Philippines would also be affected.

Under Prabowo, the government has been increasing control over strategically important commodities, cracking down on unauthorized mining operations, taking over plantations and pushing for the development of a domestic refining industry for critical minerals.

Even before Prabowo’s announcement, the China Chamber of Commerce in Indonesia sent a five-page protest letter last week highlighting investors’ concerns about Indonesia’s unstable business climate.

Chinese enterprises recently have faced “excessively stringent regulation, over-enforcement, and even corruption and extortion by competent authorities,” the letter said. This has “severely disrupted normal business operations” and “undermined long-term investment confidence.”

“Prabowo didn’t listen to the complaint from these Chinese companies and then did something very, very shocking with this new body to control the export,” said Yudhistira with CELIOS.

It’s an opening for other investors

By exerting state control over key industries, Indonesia is trying to diversify its investors, according to Yudhistira. Reducing Chinese control may attract interest from others, like the U.S.

This will only intensify the race for resources between the two superpowers, he warned.

Whether this new policy does attract new investors, however, will depend on the transparency of its implementation, said Syahdiva Moezbar with the Finland-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air in Jakarta.

Private businesses say they are still in the dark.

Danantara’s impact on small-volume trade, specialized product exports and downstream industries still needs to be spelled out, according to Eddy Martono, chairman of the Indonesian Palm Oil Association.

“Exporters usually already have their own established markets,” he said. “We must ensure we do not lose these markets if they are not managed properly.”

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Delgado reported from Bangkok.

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