“The Super El Nino will further worsen the economic pain inflicted by the ongoing energy crisis,” says Ming Yi, a physical climate scientist and visiting professor at the National University of Singapore (NUS). “Asia’s electricity supply will be further strained as droughts curtail hydropower generation; farmers will be hard hit, and water-intensive manufacturing sectors like semiconductor and textile may also be disrupted.”

“Super El Nino” refers to an exceptionally strong version of El Nino, a regular climate phenomenon driven by natural variations in ocean temperature. El Nino recurs every two to seven years; a Super El Nino is rarer, taking place every 10 to 15 years on average. During a Super El Nino, ocean temperatures surge by more than two degrees Celsius, releasing a massive amount of heat into the atmosphere. Some forecast models warn that ocean temperatures could rise by more than three degrees this year, surpassing the 2.7 degree peak recorded in 1877.

“This intense thermal surge acts like a turbocharger for the planet’s weather, amplifying normal seasonal shifts into severe global disasters,” Justin Sentian, a professor of climate change and atmospheric science at Universiti Malaysia Sabah (UMS), explains. Southeast Asia and India are among the economies most exposed to El Nino’s effects, due to their reliance on climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, fishing, and hydropower. For example, the World Bank estimates that fisheries contribute 2.6% of Indonesia’s GDP and over 7 million jobs. 

The 1877 Super El Nino, the strongest since records began, caused widespread droughts and monsoon failures in India and China. “Millions of people were thought to have died or been brought to the poverty line across Asia,” says Fiona Clare Williamson, an environmental historian from the Singapore Management University (SMU) who studied the impacts of El Nino drought events in 1877, 1902 and 1911. (In fact, it was these incidents that pushed researchers to identify the climate patterns eventually dubbed the “El Nino-Southern Oscillation.”)

There have been three Super El Nino events since the 1980s: in 1992, 1997, and 2015. All three caused “massive economic disruptions”, Yi says, with losses surpassing tens of billions of dollars. Recent research by a team of Dartmouth scientists suggests that the true price tag ran into the trillions, with 1997’s Super El Nino causing $5.7 trillion in economic damage. The team predicts that total economic losses from El Nino this century could reach $84 trillion.

El Nino meets Iran

To make matters worse, 2026’s Super El Nino hits right as Asia grapples with a fuel crisis sparked by the outbreak of the Iran war earlier this year. Countries across the region rely on the Middle East for oil and natural gas, which are trapped in the region due to Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Eighty percent of oil that transits the waterway is bound for Asia.

Several Asian countries are already dialling back their energy use. Pakistan and the Philippines have rolled out four-day work weeks, while Myanmar’s government is imposing driving limits. A long-drawn disruption to supplies of Middle Eastern oil could also stifle growth in Asia’s economies; In May, the Asian Development Bank slashed its growth forecast for developing Asia and the Pacific to 4.7% for 2026 and 4.8% for 2027, down from 5.1% for both years.

Yet a prolonged drought in Asia could hurt hydropower resources, which countries rely on as an alternative to oil and natural gas. Hydropower accounts for 14.5% of total electricity generation in South and Southeast Asia, according to the International Energy Agency.

Power use also increases during a heatwave. “Extreme ambient heat could cause immense strain on municipal power grids forced to bear the weight of surging air conditioning demand,” says Steve Yim, the director of the Centre for Climate Change and Environmental Health at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University (NTU).

A Super El Nino could also trigger a public health crisis across the region. “Under warm weather conditions, outdoor workers in construction, logistics and delivery sectors may face a relatively high risk of severe heat exhaustion,” he adds.

Sentian also points out that intense heat and intermittent water supplies could increase the risk of mosquito-borne diseases like malaria and dengue. “Desperate residents could inadvertently create breeding grounds by stockpiling water in buckets,” he says.

Forest fires in Sumatra and Kalimantan can also blanket neighboring Malaysia and Singapore in haze. Poor air quality will exacerbate chronic respiratory conditions like asthma, while forcing schools and businesses to close.

Sentian warns that the frequency of Super El Nino could double over the coming century, thanks to climate change. “The greenhouse-warmed ocean surface heats up faster than its deeper layers, making it significantly easier to trigger a massive thermal discharge into the atmosphere,” he explains.