Around 2.2 million to 2.6 million people are forecast to travel globally during the eight-day holiday that starts the eve of Jan. 28, according to digital marketing and research firm China Trading Desk. While that’s up as much as 30% from last year’s low base, it’s still below pre-pandemic levels when overseas travel was at a peak at 6.3 million.

The holiday snapshots reflect a home-bias shift among Chinese tourists, who for years were the globe’s biggest spenders. Now, their travel cutbacks have businesses from airlines to retailers and hotels recalibrating.

“Chinese are being more selective about their travel,” Subramania Bhatt, chief executive officer of China Trading Desk, said. “They’re looking for value and experiences rather than just spending money. We’re not going to see the heyday of Chinese coming in, going into big luxury shops and buying loads of handbags.”

Holidaymakers who are going abroad are increasingly choosing nearby countries like Japan and South Korea whose weakened currencies extend the buying power of the yuan. Southeast Asian nations such as Malaysia and Thailand are meanwhile luring visitors with visa-free entry and lower costs. More expensive long-haul destinations as the U.S. and Europe aren’t at the top of lists this year.

Chen Xing, a finance worker at a state-owned asset management firm in Guangzhou, routinely used to fly to Europe for two weeks’ skiing during Lunar New Year before the pandemic. With consistent pay raises and bonuses, she didn’t flinch at spending around $10,000 a trip. But over the past two years, her salary has flat-lined while her bonuses have been slashed in half.

This year, she waited for a last-minute deal and booked a trip to Osaka. She’s budgeted just $2,000 and chose a hotel that’s only 300 yuan ($40) a night, a far cry from the deluxe stays she treated herself to in the past.

“It’s more like a trip to comfort myself,” she said. “It’s a reflection of how I’m struggling in this difficult time. You have to shrink your budget for everything but still need to spend on some fun to make up for the pressure of work and life.”

According to online travel platform Fliggy, countries that are within a four-hour flight from major Chinese cities, like Japan, are favored destinations as people seek more economical options.

Furthermore, nearly three out of four travelers are booking trips less than a month in advance as people hold out for last-minute offers, Bhatt said.

Fliggy data show that air fares from Shanghai to South Korea’s popular Jeju island were selling for as low as 284 yuan one-way this month. Average air ticket prices from China to Hong Kong, and hotels in the financial hub, have dropped as much as 20% compared to last year’s Spring Festival period, Bhatt said.

During the extended 40-day Spring Festival travel period that began Jan. 14, some 90 million passenger trips are forecast to be made on both domestic and international routes, according to the Civil Aviation Administration of China. The almost 8% growth is considerably lower than the 51% spike seen in 2024, the first year after China reopened following COVID.

Passenger travel estimates for the holiday are mostly in line with capacity growth for the Chinese market, Bloomberg Intelligence senior aviation analyst Tim Bacchus said.

“The international market remains in recovery mode with some weakness in both outbound and inbound demand,” Bacchus said. “Domestic, on the other hand, appears normalized now with the growth rate falling to be consistent with historical gross domestic product-growth multiples.”