The buck can’t catch a break.
The U.S. dollar dropped to its lowest level since January, even as a prominent Federal Reserve official cast doubt on the assumption that the Fed will move toward another round of asset purchases at next month’s regularly scheduled meeting.
The U.S. currency fell to 81.8 yen, its lowest since April 1995, and was trading at $1.39 against the euro. The dollar index tumbled to 77.2, matching a low last seen in January.
The latest declines came after Friday’s weak jobs report seemingly boosted the case for a return to so-called quantitative easing, in which the Fed buys Treasury bonds to push down interest rates. Private nonfarm payrolls rose by 64,000 last month, showing a tepid recovery continues but falling short of expected 75,000-job gain.
The figures “are well clear of a ‘double-dip’ signal for the economy but they are consistent with continued disinflation which supports the case for an expansion of Fed QE at the November FOMC meeting,” Tullett Prebon economist Lena Komileva wrote in a note to clients.
But James Bullard, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, said in an interview on CNBC Friday that the push toward more easing isn’t a “slam dunk” and stressed that members of the Federal Open Market Committee will decide only after reviewing more data on the economy.
Bullard also noted the potential drawbacks to another round of QE, reflecting comments made in recent weeks by other regional Fed presidents.
“This is unchartered waters… (inflation) may get away from us if we are not careful,” Bullard said.
Among the chief risks of still looser Fed policy has become apparent in recent weeks with the outbreak of hostilities in currency markets. A weaker dollar pushes up the value of rival currencies, making it harder for growth-strapped countries to export their way out of their problems.
The great fear should the Fed commit to another round of QE, Komileva said, is that it will end up “exporting deflation to the rest of the world through weak domestic demand and global currency majors’ strength against the dollar.”
