• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

As Big Tech showers employees with perks to win the talent war, Nvidia built a nearly $5 trillion company by making people pay for their own lunch

2

Mark Zuckerberg feeds his cows macadamia nuts and beer to create the 'highest-quality beef in the world' on his $300 million estate in Hawaii

3

Today, Emily Blunt is worth $80 million thanks to her Hollywood career—but she actually wanted to be a UN Spanish translator on $80K

1

As Big Tech showers employees with perks to win the talent war, Nvidia built a nearly $5 trillion company by making people pay for their own lunch

2

Mark Zuckerberg feeds his cows macadamia nuts and beer to create the 'highest-quality beef in the world' on his $300 million estate in Hawaii

3

Today, Emily Blunt is worth $80 million thanks to her Hollywood career—but she actually wanted to be a UN Spanish translator on $80K

How LinkedIn’s bankers justify its price

By
Kevin Kelleher
Kevin Kelleher
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Kevin Kelleher
Kevin Kelleher
Down Arrow Button Icon
June 29, 2011, 11:26 AM ET
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

By Kevin Kelleher, contributor

FORTUNE — Consider the research analyst. Toiling in a job on Wall Street that is at once one of its most visible and least glamorous. Expected to write with integrity while serving – all too often – at the pleasure of the underwriting and trading desks. Forced into a shotgun marriage between the cold logic of fundamental analysis and the surreal dreamlife of a speculative bubble.



Many analysts, of course, may avoid this fate if they follow bread-and-butter sectors like chemicals or machine equipment. Life is trickier for those covering Internet stocks, especially in markets where there’s money to be made from an imminent bubble in web IPOs. Then, the research analyst must resort to a logic more familiar with medieval alchemists, whose task was to extract pure gold from something that everyone else knows is just an ordinary rock.

We are starting to see this alchemy 2.0 now that LinkedIn’s underwriters are issuing reports on the stock. LinkedIn (LNKD) went public on May 19 at $45 a share. It closed its first day at $94 and rose as high as $107 the next day. Then just as suddenly, the hot air started to leak out of the balloon and LinkedIn shares fell as low as $60 last week.

On Tuesday, cheery analysts employed by LinkedIn’s underwriters showed up with fresh propane for LinkedIn’s hot-air balloon. Most of their reports had a kind of bipolar feel to them. On the one hand, they rightly pointed out that LinkedIn is a well-run company positioned to draw profits from its social networks for professionals. On the other, they tried to justify its post-IPO stock price, which is 27 times its sales and 510 times it earnings over the past 12 months.

To be clear, the question isn’t whether LinkedIn will fail. It’s whether LinkedIn is worth buying right now. And the analysts at LinkedIn’s lead underwriters have answered that question with a full-throated Yes!

JP Morgan gave the stock an “overweight” rating – Wall Street’s version of a meddling aunt who thinks you should really eat more – and put an $85 price target on it. Morgan Stanley slapped a “buy” rating on the stock and envisioned a price of $88 in its future. BofA Merrill (BAC) saw that price target and raised it to $92.

And somehow, it worked. On Friday, before these reports were published, LinkedIn’s stock was trading at $70 a share. By Tuesday’s close, the reports helped lift the stock back above $85.

To accomplish that, the underwriters’ analysts offered a spicy word salad: “transformative,” “viral,” “disruptive” and “penetration.” Excited yet? How about this: JP Morgan wrote, “Much like Facebook is doing in social, LinkedIn is mapping the professional graph.” And Morgan Stanley crowed that LinkedIn is “empowering professionals in a connected world” – which sound like some rather disruptive penetration, until you remember that that’s what email has been doing for pretty much the last 20 years.

For all that, LinkedIn is expected to lose between $19 million and $25 million this year on a GAAP basis. But these analysts see the company returning to a profit in 2012. And in the meantime, they are valuing the company not on price-to-sales or price-to-earnings but on something called DCF. To you and me, that means discounted cash flows.

DCF is a metric that might strike individual investors as arcane. It’s actually somewhat common – it compares the current value of a property against the cash flows it’s expected to produce in the future. But the thing is, it’s usually reserved for conservative investments. It isn’t invoked in speculative sectors like the web unless people are kind of desperate.

And LinkedIn’s future cash flows are fairly speculative. But let’s say they’re not. Let’s forget for a moment that LinkedIn is spending its IPO proceeds to leverage future growth at the expense of near-term profits. Or that, to achieve that growth, it’s is starting to milk its users for revenue in ways that they may not like. Or that there are several stormy clouds on the global horizon that could put a dent in LinkedIn’s growth curve.

Even so, LinkedIn’s underwriters are setting its DCF high. Morgan Stanley (MS) argued that LinkedIn’s DCF valued the stock at $88 a share. JP Morgan (JPM) thought it meant the stock could go as high as $100. But on June 13, when the stock was trading at $72 a share, an independent firm, Evercore Partners (EVR), argued that LinkedIn’s DCF valued the stock as low as $59 a share. Evercore’s price target at the time was $70. And on Tuesday, another independent firm, Montrose Securities, asserted LinkedIn’s fair value was $62 a share.

The other question that these bullish analyst reports raise is this: If they really think LinkedIn is worth $85 or more a share, why did their own firms price the IPO at $45? That only adds credence to skeptics like Joe Nocera, who said LinkedIn was leaving hundreds of millions of dollars on the table with that low offering price.

Unless, of course, LinkedIn wanted to leave that money on the table. And why would it do that? I can’t think of a good reason, except that LinkedIn believed listing a mere 10% of its shares would create an imbalance between demand and supply – which would allow it to offer a larger portion of shares later on at an artificially inflated price. (Bizarrely, JP Morgan listed the small float as a positive for LinkedIn’s stock price.)

Of course, LinkedIn – and its underwriters – would never consider that option if they’re being honest. After all, an ordinary rock isn’t gold. It will always be just a rock. It’s strange to think that people can sometimes confuse the two. But isn’t that why we have analysts? It’s their job to separate the real gold from the fake.

About the Author
By Kevin Kelleher
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in

Best private student loans for medical school
Personal Financestudent loans and debt
Best private student loans for medical school
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 2, 2026
9 hours ago
Michael Burry just shorted Caterpillar’s 172% AI rally. One analyst says his bet won’t even matter
Investingstock prices
Michael Burry just shorted Caterpillar’s 172% AI rally. One analyst says his bet won’t even matter
By Marco Quiroz-GutierrezJuly 2, 2026
10 hours ago
Opti-Greens 50 Review (2026): Insights from Hands-On Testing
HealthDietary Supplements
Opti-Greens 50 Review (2026): Insights from Hands-On Testing
By Christina SnyderJuly 2, 2026
10 hours ago
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent
EconomyDebt
AI’s $2.2 trillion deficit fix is already half fake, economists say
By Tristan BoveJuly 2, 2026
11 hours ago
s
Personal FinanceSports
The sports economy is unaffordable at the bar, let alone the stadium
By Catherina GioinoJuly 2, 2026
11 hours ago
m
Politicsfraud
Trump fights fraud by freezing funding for New York’s Medicaid Fraud Control Unit
By Ali Swenson, Geoff Mulvihill and The Associated PressJuly 2, 2026
11 hours ago

Most Popular

As Big Tech showers employees with perks to win the talent war, Nvidia built a nearly $5 trillion company by making people pay for their own lunch
Big Tech
As Big Tech showers employees with perks to win the talent war, Nvidia built a nearly $5 trillion company by making people pay for their own lunch
By Marco Quiroz-GutierrezJuly 1, 2026
2 days ago
Mark Zuckerberg feeds his cows macadamia nuts and beer to create the 'highest-quality beef in the world' on his $300 million estate in Hawaii
Success
Mark Zuckerberg feeds his cows macadamia nuts and beer to create the 'highest-quality beef in the world' on his $300 million estate in Hawaii
By Sasha RogelbergJuly 2, 2026
13 hours ago
Today, Emily Blunt is worth $80 million thanks to her Hollywood career—but she actually wanted to be a UN Spanish translator on $80K
Success
Today, Emily Blunt is worth $80 million thanks to her Hollywood career—but she actually wanted to be a UN Spanish translator on $80K
By Orianna Rosa RoyleJuly 2, 2026
23 hours ago
Americans are escaping the U.S. for New Zealand where house prices have hit a new low—but only wealthy Americans with $3 million spare can invest
Success
Americans are escaping the U.S. for New Zealand where house prices have hit a new low—but only wealthy Americans with $3 million spare can invest
By Emma BurleighJuly 2, 2026
15 hours ago
Current price of oil as of July 2, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of oil as of July 2, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 2, 2026
17 hours ago
MacKenzie Scott alone accounted for one-third of America's $19.2 billion in megagifts last year
Success
MacKenzie Scott alone accounted for one-third of America's $19.2 billion in megagifts last year
By Sydney LakeJune 25, 2026
8 days ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.