• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

As Big Tech showers employees with perks to win the talent war, Nvidia built a nearly $5 trillion company by making people pay for their own lunch

2

Mark Zuckerberg feeds his cows macadamia nuts and beer to create the 'highest-quality beef in the world' on his $300 million estate in Hawaii

3

MacKenzie Scott alone accounted for one-third of America's $19.2 billion in megagifts last year

1

As Big Tech showers employees with perks to win the talent war, Nvidia built a nearly $5 trillion company by making people pay for their own lunch

2

Mark Zuckerberg feeds his cows macadamia nuts and beer to create the 'highest-quality beef in the world' on his $300 million estate in Hawaii

3

MacKenzie Scott alone accounted for one-third of America's $19.2 billion in megagifts last year

Investors pile into the bet against China

By
Scott Cendrowski
Scott Cendrowski
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Scott Cendrowski
Scott Cendrowski
Down Arrow Button Icon
June 29, 2011, 2:35 PM ET
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.
Jim Chanos, China bear.

FORTUNE — Jim Chanos is not alone. The well-known short-seller and vocal China bear spoke last month of not finding enough available shares to short some U.S.-listed Chinese companies with questionable accounting practices. Just a week after his interview, a short seller’s report on a U.S.-listed Chinese timber company sent its stock tumbling 90%.

Indeed, the rush of traders making bearish bets on Chinese stocks is the latest evidence of growing trend among smart money: if you’re not bearish on China, you’re missing the next big trade.

“The market and foreign academics have both turned more pessimistic,” says Dan Rosen, a partner at the Rhodium Group who follows U.S.-China relations.

Chanos started things off in 2009 when his analysts studied China’s building boom, leading him to call it “Dubai times 1,000.” Edward Chancellor at GMO in Boston and independent economist Andy Xie also began predicting that year that China would soon stumble.

More recently the chorus has been growing. Billionaire George Soros said this month China might be in a small bubble, Hong Kong’s outgoing securities regulator called it “the new dot-com,” and soothsayer economist Nouriel Roubini recently repeated his thinking that China’s government will be powerless to stop a downturn caused by dubious real estate projects and poor fixed-asset investments after 2013.

Most of the arguments are some derivative of this: China’s economy is screaming ahead at 9% GDP growth. The government may not be able to control inflation, and that could hurt growth. Meanwhile, there’s a commercial and residential property glut that could hamper state-run banks for years and lead to deflation. Plus, the Chinese government has made other terrible investments across fixed-assets. (See also China’s debt bomb)

Roubini’s main point is that China’s communist leaders have been fast and loose with money. He says when China’s net exports declined during the 2008-2009 global recession, government actions boosted fixed-investments’ share of GDP (think bridge building and new roads) to 47% from 42%. It was enough to avert a severe recession in China, but Roubini contends that exploding capital spending can’t possibly keep going to useful projects. He visited China and saw newly built airports and bullet trains that are empty, ghost towns, and highways leading to nowhere. Commercial real estate projects and luxury residential buildings have been overbuilt, and automobile capacity has outrun demand. In the short run, says Roubini, this all leads to inflation—too much money chasing too few good projects. But eventually overcapacity leads to deflationary pressures, which typically begin in the manufacturing and real-estate sectors.

“The problem, of course, is that no country can be productive enough to reinvest 50% of GDP in new capital stock without eventually facing immense overcapacity,” he wrote in an April article for Project Syndicate.

Roubini uses the Asian financial crisis of the late ‘90s as an example of what happens when countries over-invest and under-consume. To avoid a so-called hard landing after 2013, Roubini thinks China needs to save less, cut fixed investment, reduce net exports’ share of GDP, and start boosting domestic consumption.

“The trouble is that the reasons the Chinese save so much and consume so little are structural,” he says. “It will take two decades of reforms to change the incentive to over-invest.”

Last week George Soros used a recent appearance at an economic conference in Norway to say China has missed its opportunity to stem inflation. The billionaire investor told the conference that China is in “a bit of a bubble,” according to Bloomberg. Soros added that the country was beginning to see the first sings of wage-price inflation, an indication to him that China’s strategy for growing the economy was running out of steam.

Meanwhile, China’s well-documented real-estate problems recently attracted the attention of two major ratings agencies. Standard & Poor’s cut its outlook to ‘negative’ on Chinese developers on June 15 and the rating agency said tighter credit could drive down prices by 10% over the next year. Three months earlier Moody’s also downgraded its outlook on China property market to negative.

Most economists still forecast China GDP growth to eclipse 9% in the second quarter, and settle around 9% growth for the full-year. This after rising at a 10% annualized clip for most of the past 30 years.

“I certainly think fear of a hard landing is much more palpable on Wall Street among investors than people who study the economy,” says Nicholas Lardy, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. He’s seen this story play out before, in the late ‘90s when China’s consumer price index hit 25% growth. It didn’t hamper future growth then.

“It’s fair to say China was growing above its potential last year, and we see it play out in high prices,” adds Lardy. But with monetary tightening reducing the money supply and “given the political sensitivity to high inflation, I think they’re on a good trajectory.”

The smart money around Wall Street says to bet against China, turning the sentiment almost mainstream. Now it’s up to China’s communist party to prove them right or wrong.

Read more from this Fortune.com special report:

Made (again) in the USA: The return of American manufacturing
Lost in a sea of troubling economic data is one bright spot: America is once again competing for — and winning — factories and manufacturing operations.

The secret role of energy in bringing U.S. jobs back
How a reliable grid can trump cheap wages

Why we left our factories in China
Fed up with the poor quality of having their products made in China, American businesses like Sleek Audio are moving production back home.

How to train U.S. workers back into manufacturing jobs  
Despite gloomy job prospects, many American manufacturers are on the prowl for top talent, but say that not enough workers are trained for the tasks.

About the Author
By Scott Cendrowski
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in

Best private student loans for medical school
Personal Financestudent loans and debt
Best private student loans for medical school
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 2, 2026
7 hours ago
Michael Burry just shorted Caterpillar’s 172% AI rally. One analyst says his bet won’t even matter
Investingstock prices
Michael Burry just shorted Caterpillar’s 172% AI rally. One analyst says his bet won’t even matter
By Marco Quiroz-GutierrezJuly 2, 2026
8 hours ago
Opti-Greens 50 Review (2026): Insights from Hands-On Testing
HealthDietary Supplements
Opti-Greens 50 Review (2026): Insights from Hands-On Testing
By Christina SnyderJuly 2, 2026
8 hours ago
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent
EconomyDebt
AI’s $2.2 trillion deficit fix is already half fake, economists say
By Tristan BoveJuly 2, 2026
9 hours ago
s
Personal FinanceSports
The sports economy is unaffordable at the bar, let alone the stadium
By Catherina GioinoJuly 2, 2026
9 hours ago
m
Politicsfraud
Trump fights fraud by freezing funding for New York’s Medicaid Fraud Control Unit
By Ali Swenson, Geoff Mulvihill and The Associated PressJuly 2, 2026
9 hours ago

Most Popular

As Big Tech showers employees with perks to win the talent war, Nvidia built a nearly $5 trillion company by making people pay for their own lunch
Big Tech
As Big Tech showers employees with perks to win the talent war, Nvidia built a nearly $5 trillion company by making people pay for their own lunch
By Marco Quiroz-GutierrezJuly 1, 2026
2 days ago
Mark Zuckerberg feeds his cows macadamia nuts and beer to create the 'highest-quality beef in the world' on his $300 million estate in Hawaii
Success
Mark Zuckerberg feeds his cows macadamia nuts and beer to create the 'highest-quality beef in the world' on his $300 million estate in Hawaii
By Sasha RogelbergJuly 2, 2026
11 hours ago
MacKenzie Scott alone accounted for one-third of America's $19.2 billion in megagifts last year
Success
MacKenzie Scott alone accounted for one-third of America's $19.2 billion in megagifts last year
By Sydney LakeJune 25, 2026
8 days ago
Today, Emily Blunt is worth $80 million thanks to her Hollywood career—but she actually wanted to be a UN Spanish translator on $80K
Success
Today, Emily Blunt is worth $80 million thanks to her Hollywood career—but she actually wanted to be a UN Spanish translator on $80K
By Orianna Rosa RoyleJuly 2, 2026
21 hours ago
Americans are escaping the U.S. for New Zealand where house prices have hit a new low—but only wealthy Americans with $3 million spare can invest
Success
Americans are escaping the U.S. for New Zealand where house prices have hit a new low—but only wealthy Americans with $3 million spare can invest
By Emma BurleighJuly 2, 2026
13 hours ago
Current price of oil as of July 2, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of oil as of July 2, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 2, 2026
14 hours ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.