• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Exclusive

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

Why I’m betting on a return to normal markets

By
Stephen Gandel
Stephen Gandel
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Stephen Gandel
Stephen Gandel
Down Arrow Button Icon
June 27, 2013, 2:51 PM ET
Cliff Asness

FORTUNE — No black swans here.

That’s the opinion of hedge fund manager Cliff Asness, who runs AQR Capital, which is one of the industry’s biggest firms with $80 billion under management. The rapid move up in interest rates and the recent 800-point two-day drop in the Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) has more than a few investors worried we might be seeing the beginning stages of a new economic crisis.

Adding to the anxiety is the fact that all this seems to be triggered by Ben Bernanke’s suggestion that the Fed may soon curtail its bond buying stimulus program, which some have been warning would spell doom.

MORE: Why the economy can’t save the market from Bernanke

Asness’s advice: Chill out. The investor says the effect of the Fed on the market has been exaggerated. He expects the recent combined rout of stocks and bonds to be over for now. “There is absolutely no reason for this to continue,” says Asness. “There is no liquidity crisis or big unwind. This is not 2008.”

Some have said that the market is suffering from excess leverage or the fact that Wall Street dealers, because of new rules, are no longer willing to support the bond market. Asness says he sees no evidence of that. He says some bond market are less liquid than usual, but he sees no signs of the type of market turmoil we saw brewing back in 2008. “Markets are functioning well,” says Asness.

What has caught the market off guard, according to Asness, is that interest rates are rising at a time when inflation is flat, expectations for corporate cash flows haven’t dramatically improved, and commodity prices are falling. That’s not what normally happens. What’s more, this is all coming at a time when China is slowing as well. “Sounds like a perfect storm,” says Asness.

That’s not sustainable. In Asness’s opinion, either interest rates have to head back down, or growth has to pick up. Either way, investors should benefit. “The preponderance of evidence right now suggests a return to more a normal market environment,” says Asness. “I would bet on that, and I am with my own money.”

MORE: Goldman pushes hedge funds for your 401(k)

Asness would probably like to get back to a normal as quickly as possible. Although it’s hard to know how AQR has performed recently overall — hedge funds don’t have to disclose their performance to anyone other than their investors, and Asness isn’t saying — a number of his publicly trading mutual funds have suffered in the recent market rout. The most notable is AQR’s popular Risk Parity fund (AQRIX), which has $1.2 billion in assets and tumbled 10% in the past month. It’s now down 5.7% in 2013.

Indeed, the recent market downturn has taken some of the allure off of risk parity funds in general, which Buzzfeed recent touted as the the Steve Carell of investment strategies, which I think was a compliment.

Most of us usually think of diversification as combining some risky assets and some less risky assets. The idea behind risk parity funds is that’s silly. What you really need to do is take some risky assets and some non-risky assets, and then leverage up those non-risky assets so everything is just the same amount of risk, i.e. parity. That worked pretty well for a while, until recently, when it hasn’t. The All Weather fund, which is the $70 billion risk parity fund of Bridgewater Associates, another large hedge fund firm, is also down 8% this year.

Asness says he is not as worried as some about the end of the Fed’s quantitative easing. He says he is “shockingly agnostic” about whether the stimulus effort was good or bad for the economy. “Monetary policy is like a dog chasing a car,” says Asness. “Central bankers are always behind, and then not quite sure what to do when they catch up. It’s just paper chasing paper.”

About the Author
By Stephen Gandel
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon

Latest in

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in

altman
CommentarySam Altman
Musk vs. Altman: AI safety cannot be one man’s job
By Stavros GadinisMay 18, 2026
2 hours ago
Pope Leo launches an AI commission days before he releases a papal letter alongside Anthropic cofounder Christopher Olah
AIPope
Pope Leo launches an AI commission days before he releases a papal letter alongside Anthropic cofounder Christopher Olah
By Catherina GioinoMay 18, 2026
3 hours ago
John Ketchum, CEO of NextEra Energy, speaks during BlackRock's 2026 Infrastructure Summit in Washington, DC, on March 11, 2026. Photographer: Daniel Heuer/Bloomberg via Getty Images
EnergyNextEra Energy
NextEra’s $67 billion Dominion takeover creates the world’s largest utility—just in time to win the AI data-center power surge
By Jordan BlumMay 18, 2026
3 hours ago
Employers are quietly pausing 401(k) matches again. The last time this happened was the 2008 recession and Covid
Personal Finance401(k)
Employers are quietly pausing 401(k) matches again. The last time this happened was the 2008 recession and Covid
By Courtney Vinopal and HR BrewMay 18, 2026
3 hours ago
Harvard University banners hang in front of a building
CryptoCryptocurrency
Harvard sold off its entire $87 million Ethereum stake just one quarter after buying it
By Jack KubinecMay 18, 2026
4 hours ago
Not the Allbirds effect: Japan’s top bidet maker Toto has been quietly making chip supplies for decades, and the stock market finally noticed
AIChips
Not the Allbirds effect: Japan’s top bidet maker Toto has been quietly making chip supplies for decades, and the stock market finally noticed
By Catherina GioinoMay 18, 2026
4 hours ago

Most Popular

The Bezos family just donated $100 million to help achieve one of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s top campaign promises
Politics
The Bezos family just donated $100 million to help achieve one of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s top campaign promises
By Jake AngeloMay 12, 2026
6 days ago
Microsoft AI chief gives it 18 months—for all white-collar work to be automated by AI
AI
Microsoft AI chief gives it 18 months—for all white-collar work to be automated by AI
By Jake AngeloMay 16, 2026
2 days ago
The top foreign holders of U.S. debt may soon dump Treasury bonds and bring their money back home, potentially spiking borrowing costs
Economy
The top foreign holders of U.S. debt may soon dump Treasury bonds and bring their money back home, potentially spiking borrowing costs
By Jason MaMay 17, 2026
1 day ago
SpaceX heads into a record-shattering IPO with the 'deepest moat that exists today' as investors vow to 'never bet against Elon'
Innovation
SpaceX heads into a record-shattering IPO with the 'deepest moat that exists today' as investors vow to 'never bet against Elon'
By Jason MaMay 16, 2026
2 days ago
Mamdani's New York is coming to tax your private jet. Here's how to prepare
Personal Finance
Mamdani's New York is coming to tax your private jet. Here's how to prepare
By Greg RaiffMay 16, 2026
3 days ago
'No one was coming to save me': How Reese Witherspoon built a $900 million company from a problem Hollywood wouldn't fix
Success
'No one was coming to save me': How Reese Witherspoon built a $900 million company from a problem Hollywood wouldn't fix
By Sydney LakeMay 17, 2026
2 days ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.