• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Exclusive

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

Corporate profits: Not as good as they seem

By
Stephen Gandel
Stephen Gandel
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Stephen Gandel
Stephen Gandel
Down Arrow Button Icon
September 26, 2013, 2:11 PM ET

FORTUNE — Over the past year or so, corporate profits have been a growing concern for investors. They’re too good.

Margins, the percentage of each sale that ends up as profit, as measured by GDP, have never been this high. They hit a record near the beginning of 2011 and have continued to march up. At the end of June, corporate profit margins were 11.5%. That’s two percentage points higher than the roughly 9.5% they peaked at in 2006.

As a result, the general conclusion is there is nowhere for profit margins to go but down. That’s bad news at a time when the economy is growing so slowly. Even if the economy continues to improve, companies, after years of cost-cutting — a main reason why margins are so high — will have to hire. Actual profits are sure to fall.

MORE: Waiting for the next stock market crash

But strategist and economist Ed Yardeni thinks profit margins, at least the ones that matter most to the market, may not be as high as everyone assumes. He says that while overall profit margins are the highest they have ever been, the profit margins of the companies in the S&P 500 (SPX) are not that out of line from other economic rebounds.

The average after-tax profit margin of the companies in the index was 8.5% at the end of the June. That’s below the 9.5% they hit in early 2007. What’s more, profit margins for the S&P actually fell last year, and that didn’t seem to upset the market. Stocks were still up over 12% in 2012, and another 19% this year as well, though margins have been climbing again.

There are two points to be made here. The big economic one is that the split between the two profit measures suggests the biggest margin gains of the last few year have been coming more from small companies and not from the giant ones in the S&P 500 index. The conventional wisdom is that profit margins are up because companies are moving jobs overseas, cutting labor costs, and avoiding taxes. Smaller companies tend to improve their margins because of innovation and technological gains. Over the long haul that’s better for the economy, even if it still means fewer jobs now.

MORE: Wall Street bonuses top 2009

The second point is that while profit margins, at least for the big companies that matter most to the market, are high, they’re not historically high. In fact, they are not at the point at which they are unsustainable, which is what everyone is worried about. Profit margins could stay high for a while. James Paulsen of Wells Capital Management says the real thing that will kill profits is inflation, which has been low, and is likely to stay low as long as the economy remains weak.

If the economy does pick up, then profit margins may indeed fall, but by then sales will be rising faster, and that will boost corporate bottom lines. Profit margins might not matter as much.

“Margins are high and likely to come down,” says Paulsen. “I just don’t think that means we are entering a bear market.”

About the Author
By Stephen Gandel
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon

Latest in

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in

Pope Leo launches an AI commission days before he releases a papal letter alongside Anthropic cofounder Christopher Olah
AIPope
Pope Leo launches an AI commission days before he releases a papal letter alongside Anthropic cofounder Christopher Olah
By Catherina GioinoMay 18, 2026
12 minutes ago
John Ketchum, CEO of NextEra Energy, speaks during BlackRock's 2026 Infrastructure Summit in Washington, DC, on March 11, 2026. Photographer: Daniel Heuer/Bloomberg via Getty Images
EnergyNextEra Energy
NextEra’s $67 billion Dominion takeover creates the world’s largest utility—just in time to win the AI data-center power surge
By Jordan BlumMay 18, 2026
41 minutes ago
Employers are quietly pausing 401(k) matches again. The last time this happened was the 2008 recession and Covid
Personal Finance401(k)
Employers are quietly pausing 401(k) matches again. The last time this happened was the 2008 recession and Covid
By Courtney Vinopal and HR BrewMay 18, 2026
44 minutes ago
Harvard University banners hang in front of a building
CryptoCryptocurrency
Harvard sold off its entire $87 million Ethereum stake just one quarter after buying it
By Jack KubinecMay 18, 2026
58 minutes ago
Not the Allbirds effect: Japan’s top bidet maker Toto has been quietly making chip supplies for decades, and the stock market finally noticed
AIChips
Not the Allbirds effect: Japan’s top bidet maker Toto has been quietly making chip supplies for decades, and the stock market finally noticed
By Catherina GioinoMay 18, 2026
2 hours ago
Interior view of the New York Stock Exchange
Economyinvestors
New York Fed warns about $69 trillion foreign investment ‘burden’ on U.S. economy
By Tristan BoveMay 18, 2026
2 hours ago

Most Popular

The top foreign holders of U.S. debt may soon dump Treasury bonds and bring their money back home, potentially spiking borrowing costs
Economy
The top foreign holders of U.S. debt may soon dump Treasury bonds and bring their money back home, potentially spiking borrowing costs
By Jason MaMay 17, 2026
1 day ago
Microsoft AI chief gives it 18 months—for all white-collar work to be automated by AI
AI
Microsoft AI chief gives it 18 months—for all white-collar work to be automated by AI
By Jake AngeloMay 16, 2026
2 days ago
The Bezos family just donated $100 million to help achieve one of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s top campaign promises
Politics
The Bezos family just donated $100 million to help achieve one of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s top campaign promises
By Jake AngeloMay 12, 2026
6 days ago
'No one was coming to save me': How Reese Witherspoon built a $900 million company from a problem Hollywood wouldn't fix
Success
'No one was coming to save me': How Reese Witherspoon built a $900 million company from a problem Hollywood wouldn't fix
By Sydney LakeMay 17, 2026
1 day ago
SpaceX heads into a record-shattering IPO with the 'deepest moat that exists today' as investors vow to 'never bet against Elon'
Innovation
SpaceX heads into a record-shattering IPO with the 'deepest moat that exists today' as investors vow to 'never bet against Elon'
By Jason MaMay 16, 2026
2 days ago
Mamdani's New York is coming to tax your private jet. Here's how to prepare
Personal Finance
Mamdani's New York is coming to tax your private jet. Here's how to prepare
By Greg RaiffMay 16, 2026
2 days ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.