• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Exclusive

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

Why stronger GDP growth isn’t creating more jobs

By
Stephen Gandel
Stephen Gandel
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Stephen Gandel
Stephen Gandel
Down Arrow Button Icon
January 30, 2014, 8:17 PM ET

FORTUNE — On Thursday, we received more evidence that the economy is broken.

The government said GDP rose 3.2% in the last three months of 2013 — one of the fastest rates since the end of the recession, though slower than the third quarter’s 4.1%. Still, that sounds good, until you remember this: Employers only added 74,000 jobs in December — one of the worst months in nearly three years. Stronger economic growth is supposed to equal more jobs. So what gives?

It does appear that the normal relationship between jobs and GDP has broken down. In the first half of 2013, for instance, GDP growth was at 1.9% and employers added an average of 195,000 jobs a month. In the second half of the year, GDP picked up to 3.6%, but the rate of job growth slowed to 170,000.

MORE: Jobs report blues: Did the Fed screw up?

Over the past decade, on average, a one percentage point change in GDP has translated to about 115,000 more, or fewer, jobs. But the number jumps around a lot. And there are some things that do tend to disrupt the relationship.

GDP growth is rising . . .

Immediately after a recession, strong GDP growth doesn’t tend to produce the same level of job growth as usual. That’s because GDP at that moment is rebounding rather than growing. What’s more, employers are slow to hire after a recession. That’s what happened in 2010 and 2011. But we are now four years out of the most recent recession, so it’s odd that the relationship hasn’t returned to normal.

Hours and productivity can mess with the GDP-to-jobs equation. As hours and productivity go up, employers can make more money with the same number, or fewer, workers. But the average work week has not grown much recently and productivity, after growing rapidly in the 1990s and then right after the recession, has been flat-lining as well.

. . . . even as job growth is slowing. (NOTE: These are quarterly averages.)

What’s going on?

Most of the economists I talked to shrugged it off. It’s mostly a short-term problem, they said. Most people think December’s jobs number represented a temporary slowdown, perhaps caused by the cold weather. Job growth will rebound in January, they say. If that happens, the GDP-to-jobs number will look more normal. For all of 2013, the ratio of jobs to GDP growth was 88,000. So we’re not that far off the 115,000 average when you look at the whole year, even if recently the number has been more like 50,000.

MORE: Roubini: U.S. economy will disappoint in 2014

But I don’t think you can completely write off this trend. Yes, December’s jobs number was perhaps worse than it should have been, and it may very well be revised up. But it will not be revised to a figure like 300,000, even after adjusting for the weather. The fact of the matter is the job market is still slow. And at least part of this has to do with the fact that the mechanism we have used to turn economic growth into jobs is not working as well as it used to.

The lack of lending by the big banks may very well be one contributing factor. Another theory: Companies have gotten greater rates of return investing in capital in the past decade or so than they have in putting the money into hiring more workers. That’s led companies to believe that the best use of their money is to plow it into technology or buying back their own stock. But, as recent productivity numbers show, the benefits from those investments are falling. Corporations don’t seem to have noticed that yet.

Whatever the reason, Thursday’s GDP numbers suggest that even if the overall economy is back, the labor market could still lag for a while.

About the Author
By Stephen Gandel
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon

Latest in

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in

monet
CybersecuritySocial Media
6.7 million people thought they were ripping apart an AI-generated Monet painting. But it was real
By Nick LichtenbergMay 18, 2026
17 minutes ago
President Donald Trump speaks to the media aboard Air Force One on May 15, 2026.
EconomyDonald Trump
While Trump insisted the Iran war would end ‘soon,’ an account in his name was buying millions in oil, defense and gold
By Eva RoytburgMay 18, 2026
41 minutes ago
PARIS, FRANCE - JUNE 16: Chief Executive Officer of SpaceX and Tesla and owner of Twitter, Elon Musk attends the Viva Technology conference dedicated to innovation and startups at the Porte de Versailles exhibition centre on June 16, 2023 in Paris, France. Elon Musk is visiting Paris for the VivaTech show where he gives a conference in front of 4,000 technology enthusiasts. He also took the opportunity to meet Bernard Arnaud, CEO of LVMH and the French President. Emmanuel Macron, who has already met Elon Musk twice in recent months, hopes to convince him to set up a Tesla battery factory in France, his pioneer company in electric cars. (Photo by Chesnot/Getty Images)
AIOpenAI
Jury rules against Elon Musk in $150 billion lawsuit against OpenAI and Sam Altman
By Sharon GoldmanMay 18, 2026
49 minutes ago
Ryanair’s CFO says the airline has plans for an ‘armageddon situation’ as the jet fuel crisis threatens weaker European airlines this winter
EnergyAirline industry
Ryanair’s CFO says the airline has plans for an ‘armageddon situation’ as the jet fuel crisis threatens weaker European airlines this winter
By Marco Quiroz-GutierrezMay 18, 2026
50 minutes ago
broker
Investingbubble
AI is eating the market and Wall Street strategists have bubble brain as they debate: are we in 1997 or 1999?
By Nick LichtenbergMay 18, 2026
2 hours ago
Donald Trump smiles
LawDonald Trump
Trump creates $1.7 billion ‘Anti-Weaponization Fund’ to compensate allies as part of his IRS lawsuit settlement
By Fatima Hussein, Eric Tucker, Alanna Durkin Richer and The Associated PressMay 18, 2026
2 hours ago

Most Popular

The top foreign holders of U.S. debt may soon dump Treasury bonds and bring their money back home, potentially spiking borrowing costs
Economy
The top foreign holders of U.S. debt may soon dump Treasury bonds and bring their money back home, potentially spiking borrowing costs
By Jason MaMay 17, 2026
1 day ago
Microsoft AI chief gives it 18 months—for all white-collar work to be automated by AI
AI
Microsoft AI chief gives it 18 months—for all white-collar work to be automated by AI
By Jake AngeloMay 16, 2026
2 days ago
The Bezos family just donated $100 million to help achieve one of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s top campaign promises
Politics
The Bezos family just donated $100 million to help achieve one of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s top campaign promises
By Jake AngeloMay 12, 2026
6 days ago
'No one was coming to save me': How Reese Witherspoon built a $900 million company from a problem Hollywood wouldn't fix
Success
'No one was coming to save me': How Reese Witherspoon built a $900 million company from a problem Hollywood wouldn't fix
By Sydney LakeMay 17, 2026
1 day ago
SpaceX heads into a record-shattering IPO with the 'deepest moat that exists today' as investors vow to 'never bet against Elon'
Innovation
SpaceX heads into a record-shattering IPO with the 'deepest moat that exists today' as investors vow to 'never bet against Elon'
By Jason MaMay 16, 2026
2 days ago
Gen X is the most indebted generation in America. Their employers can fix that
Commentary
Gen X is the most indebted generation in America. Their employers can fix that
By Mary MorelandMay 17, 2026
1 day ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.