• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Exclusive

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

Russian debt deal could haunt Ukraine’s economy

By
Stephen Gandel
Stephen Gandel
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Stephen Gandel
Stephen Gandel
Down Arrow Button Icon
March 12, 2014, 9:00 AM ET
Russian President and bond dealer Vladimir Putin

FORTUNE — Just months before the toppling of its government, Russia cut a loan deal with Ukraine that would make even an ace structured finance dealmaker envious. One expert on sovereign debt has called the transaction “clever.” And the deal could come back to haunt Ukraine’s economy.

Back in December, Russia lent Ukraine $3 billion as part of an assistance package that was supposed to reach $15 billion. But Russia didn’t just hand over money directly to Ukraine. Instead, Russian had the Ukrainian government issue $3 billion in bonds. The bonds were denominated in euros. And then Russia bought all of the bonds.

That may have seemed like a straightforward way to do the deal. Ukraine already had billions of eurobonds outstanding. So issuing more may have appeared easier than writing up a new loan agreement. Plus, the deal would give a lift to the prices of Ukraine’s other eurobonds, which were already suffering from the growing political turmoil in the country.

MORE: Ukraine ‘will not lose’ if Crimea sucedes

But the roundabout loan deal had more advantages for Russia than it first appeared. Here’s where things get interesting.

It turns out that Russia didn’t just have Ukraine do a straight debt offering like the ones it had done before. Instead, Russia wrote into the new bond offering a provision. As part of the bond deal, Ukraine had to promise that it would keep its debt-to-GDP level below 60%. If it rose above that level, Russia had the right to demand the bonds be repaid immediately in full.

That kind of qualification in government bond deals is unusual. Mitu Gulati, a sovereign bond expert, says he has never seen a government bond with a similar debt-to-GDP provision. Most sovereign debt is “covenant-lite.”

It would be hard to prove this was premeditated, but including that provision gives Russia a lot of economic leverage. At the time, Ukraine’s debt-to-GDP was near 40%. But with Russian looking likely to hive off Crimea, and taking that portion of the Ukraine’s economic activity with it, along with the slowdown the political unrest has caused, it’s likely that by the next reading or two Ukraine’s debt will be in the 60% range or beyond it.

That means Russia can ask for its money back, and at the same time add more economic hardship to Ukraine as it struggles to rebuild.

MORE: The real reason bitcoin is doomed

If this was a straight loan, Ukraine could just say to Vladimir Putin, “Hey you just invaded us. Debt’s off. We’re not paying.” But since it’s a bond deal, it won’t be that easy. To invalidate the eurobond debt, Ukraine has to argue that Russia knew that part of the money it agreed to give to Ukraine’s past government was at least in part going to line the pockets of a corrupt ruler. The Ukrainians certainly believe that, but that might be hard to prove to an international court.

There are a lot of other Ukrainian eurobonds out there that look similar to the ones Russia is holding, so not paying the ones Russia is holding will have larger implications for all of Ukraine’s debt, causing prices to fall and interest rates to rise. What’s more, Russia could sell its bonds to the market, likely at a premium because of the special provision. That may make a court less likely to invalidate the debt, and Ukraine less willing to do so, if it is held by a private investor, especially a non-Russian one.

That being said, the United States and Europe will likely offer generous loan guarantees and have already pledged aid to Ukraine. That should help it with its near-term debt problems should Russia call its debt. And it probably won’t, given that the debt offers Russia another piece of leverage, and another reason for Ukraine to negotiate.

Of course, there is still a chance that Ukraine would just say it’s not paying the debt, and for it all to work out okay. The unusual debt deal probably works opposite from what you would expect on Wall Street. Most bond holders don’t want to swap their debt for equity. Neighboring nations looking to rebuild old empires may be more willing to make that trade.

About the Author
By Stephen Gandel
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon

Latest in

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in

broker
Investingbubble
AI is eating the market and Wall Street strategists have bubble brain as they debate: are we in 1997 or 1999?
By Nick LichtenbergMay 18, 2026
43 minutes ago
Donald Trump smiles
LawDonald Trump
Trump creates $1.7 billion ‘Anti-Weaponization Fund’ to compensate allies as part of his IRS lawsuit settlement
By Fatima Hussein, Eric Tucker, Alanna Durkin Richer and The Associated PressMay 18, 2026
47 minutes ago
Women’s representation on boards of directors falls below 30%—but there’s one bright spot
NewslettersMPW Daily
Women’s representation on boards of directors falls below 30%—but there’s one bright spot
By Emma HinchliffeMay 18, 2026
1 hour ago
Attendees sit to watch a speech during the 2023 Consensus conference in Austin, Texas
CryptoCryptocurrency
A strip club scandal at a major crypto industry event triggers sponsor backlash
By Jack KubinecMay 18, 2026
1 hour ago
data center
AIData centers
Communities are blocking billions in data centers. Big Tech has wagered $1 trillion otherwise
By Nick LichtenbergMay 18, 2026
2 hours ago
trump
EconomyCurrency
China will remain an ‘incomplete superpower’ until it can catch up with U.S. financial might, market veteran says
By Jason MaMay 18, 2026
3 hours ago

Most Popular

The top foreign holders of U.S. debt may soon dump Treasury bonds and bring their money back home, potentially spiking borrowing costs
Economy
The top foreign holders of U.S. debt may soon dump Treasury bonds and bring their money back home, potentially spiking borrowing costs
By Jason MaMay 17, 2026
1 day ago
Microsoft AI chief gives it 18 months—for all white-collar work to be automated by AI
AI
Microsoft AI chief gives it 18 months—for all white-collar work to be automated by AI
By Jake AngeloMay 16, 2026
2 days ago
The Bezos family just donated $100 million to help achieve one of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s top campaign promises
Politics
The Bezos family just donated $100 million to help achieve one of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s top campaign promises
By Jake AngeloMay 12, 2026
6 days ago
'No one was coming to save me': How Reese Witherspoon built a $900 million company from a problem Hollywood wouldn't fix
Success
'No one was coming to save me': How Reese Witherspoon built a $900 million company from a problem Hollywood wouldn't fix
By Sydney LakeMay 17, 2026
1 day ago
SpaceX heads into a record-shattering IPO with the 'deepest moat that exists today' as investors vow to 'never bet against Elon'
Innovation
SpaceX heads into a record-shattering IPO with the 'deepest moat that exists today' as investors vow to 'never bet against Elon'
By Jason MaMay 16, 2026
2 days ago
Gen X is the most indebted generation in America. Their employers can fix that
Commentary
Gen X is the most indebted generation in America. Their employers can fix that
By Mary MorelandMay 17, 2026
1 day ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.