• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

As Big Tech showers employees with perks to win the talent war, Nvidia built a nearly $5 trillion company by making people pay for their own lunch

2

MacKenzie Scott alone accounted for one-third of America's $19.2 billion in megagifts last year

3

The Supreme Court's birthright citizenship ruling hands the U.S. economy a $7.7 trillion win

1

As Big Tech showers employees with perks to win the talent war, Nvidia built a nearly $5 trillion company by making people pay for their own lunch

2

MacKenzie Scott alone accounted for one-third of America's $19.2 billion in megagifts last year

3

The Supreme Court's birthright citizenship ruling hands the U.S. economy a $7.7 trillion win
FinanceInterest Rates

This guy knows the secret to beating low interest rates

By
Dan Kadlec
Dan Kadlec
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Dan Kadlec
Dan Kadlec
Down Arrow Button Icon
February 6, 2015, 4:55 PM ET
Photograph by Scott Eells — Bloomberg via Getty Images
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

This post is in partnership with Time. The article below was originally published at Time.com.

In the early days of 2015, few people have been more alone—and right—about bonds than Jeffrey Gundlach. That doesn’t mean the whole year will go his way. But fixed-income investors should probably lend an ear to his contrarian view.

Gundlach is the founder and chief investment officer of DoubleLine Capital. Forbes recently crowned him “the new bond king” for his ability to stand against the crowd and rack up big gains. Gundlach was betting on lower rates in 2011 when reigning bond king Bill Gross was betting the other way. Gundlach proved right. Gross was later forced out at PIMCO (PHK), the giant asset manager he had founded—and a new king ascended the throne.

Today, Gundlach is at it again. While almost all of Wall Street has been forecasting higher bond yields, he has been predicting another year of falling yields and solid returns. Economists generally expect the 10-year Treasury bond yield to rise to 2.5% to 3%, from about 1.7% now. Gundlach believes we’re headed below (maybe well below) the record low yield of 1.38%, giving bondholders another year of returns in excess of the interest payments they collect.

Why should you listen? Just a month ago the T-bond yield stood at 2.2%, and most economists were forecasting a rise to 3.25% or higher. So while Gundlach has been on target, racking up gains, others have been scrambling to adjust.

Interest rates have been falling pretty much nonstop since 1981, when Justin Timberlake was a newborn and Blondie was a hit maker. They will reverse at some point, and with the Fed signaling its first short-term funds hike since the recession (after midyear) a lot of pros figured this would be the year. That may yet prove to be the case—and if it is, investing for income will turn out to be a dangerous game.

Bond prices fall when yields rise. In normal times, an orderly decline in bond prices isn’t such a big deal. But with yields so low there isn’t a lot of cushion. Even a modest decline in prices would overwhelm the income from a bond yielding less than 2%. In recent years, income investors have flocked to riskier but higher yielding junk bonds and bond substitutes like real estate investment trusts, master limited partnerships and preferred shares. All of those now look priced for low returns this year—and if yields move higher losses are not out of the question.

For that reason, most experts say income investors should be diligent about diversification and stick with the highest quality credit. They advise staying away from long-term bonds, which are most sensitive to swings in interest rates. Bonds that mature in about five years appear to be the sweet spot. A fund like Vanguard Total Bond Market would help with this approach with a 2.5% yield, high-quality holdings, and an average maturity of 5.6 years. Another widely advised approach is dividend-paying stocks through an ETF like iShares Select Dividend. You can collect around 3% in income and, with the economy looking healthy, could see share prices move up as well.

If Gundlach is right, though, you may do better in long-term bonds, REITs that do not own shopping malls, and maybe even junk bonds. His contrarian view is largely based on weak oil prices, which tamp down inflation worries, and on slowing economies and ultra-low bond yields overseas, which make the T-bond yield look fat. A strong dollar helps his case.

A year ago, Gundlach correctly predicted falling yields, weakness in junk bonds, and the end of the Fed’s bond-buying program. So far this year, he’s been right on rates again. So maybe the bond market isn’t as dangerous as it seems, and income investors can eke out another good year.

About the Author
By Dan Kadlec
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in Finance

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Finance

Trump’s 927-page disclosure is just a normal Tuesday for direct indexing and crypto wealth managers
InvestingDonald Trump
Trump’s 927-page disclosure is just a normal Tuesday for direct indexing and crypto wealth managers
By Catherina GioinoJuly 1, 2026
8 hours ago
US President Donald Trump sits in silence with his hands folded on top of each other.
CryptoDonald Trump
Inside Trump’s $1.4 billion crypto empire: Altcoins, Bitcoin—and a stake in Michael Saylor’s Strategy
By Camila Grigera NaónJuly 1, 2026
9 hours ago
Mark Zandi, Moody's chief economist.
EconomyU.S. economy
‘It’s fair to ask whether it was worth it’: The Iran war has cost Americans $1,000 per household—and that’s a conservative estimate, Mark Zandi says
By Tristan BoveJuly 1, 2026
12 hours ago
Melania Trump NFT earnings surge 28x in 2025 as the First Lady rakes in nearly $17 million in total earnings, filing shows
PoliticsDonald Trump
Melania Trump NFT earnings surge 28x in 2025 as the First Lady rakes in nearly $17 million in total earnings, filing shows
By Mia OsmonbekovJuly 1, 2026
12 hours ago
Donald Trump sits at his desk in the Oval Office, smiling and with his hands folded in front of him.
PoliticsDonald Trump
Trump got a $78K pension from the Screen Actors Guild in 2025 because he appeared in Home Alone 2 in 1992
By Sasha RogelbergJuly 1, 2026
14 hours ago
Current price of Bitcoin for July 1, 2026
Personal FinanceCryptocurrency
Current price of Bitcoin for July 1, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 1, 2026
17 hours ago

Most Popular

As Big Tech showers employees with perks to win the talent war, Nvidia built a nearly $5 trillion company by making people pay for their own lunch
Big Tech
As Big Tech showers employees with perks to win the talent war, Nvidia built a nearly $5 trillion company by making people pay for their own lunch
By Marco Quiroz-GutierrezJuly 1, 2026
23 hours ago
MacKenzie Scott alone accounted for one-third of America's $19.2 billion in megagifts last year
Success
MacKenzie Scott alone accounted for one-third of America's $19.2 billion in megagifts last year
By Sydney LakeJune 25, 2026
7 days ago
The Supreme Court's birthright citizenship ruling hands the U.S. economy a $7.7 trillion win
Newsletters
The Supreme Court's birthright citizenship ruling hands the U.S. economy a $7.7 trillion win
By Diane BradyJuly 1, 2026
21 hours ago
Current price of oil as of July 1, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of oil as of July 1, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 1, 2026
18 hours ago
Philanthropy leader at Warren Buffett and Bill Gates’ Giving Pledge says children of billionaires are pushing them to give their wealth away faster
Success
Philanthropy leader at Warren Buffett and Bill Gates’ Giving Pledge says children of billionaires are pushing them to give their wealth away faster
By Preston ForeJune 27, 2026
5 days ago
Elon Musk on MacKenzie Scott giving away $26 billion of her fortune: 'Sadly,' it makes the world a worse place
Success
Elon Musk on MacKenzie Scott giving away $26 billion of her fortune: 'Sadly,' it makes the world a worse place
By Sydney LakeJune 29, 2026
3 days ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.