• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Exclusive

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

CommentaryOil

The downside of cheaper gas

By
Stephen Schork
Stephen Schork
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Stephen Schork
Stephen Schork
Down Arrow Button Icon
March 19, 2015, 5:00 AM ET
gas pump
A person filling a petrol tankPhotograph by Maria Wachala—Getty Images/Moment Open

Let’s be clear about this: commodity prices do not drive economic growth; economic growth drives commodity prices.

Keep this in mind the next time a talking head claims that the ongoing purge in oil is a “good thing.”

Oil prices have been slashed in half since the summer. This is undoubtedly known, but do you also know that lumber and copper prices are down by 25% or that aluminum prices are down by nearly 20%?

Now ask yourself, when has a fire-sale in the four most important industrial commodities ever been a sign of a growing economy? Here’s a hint: the next time will be the first time.
After all, in spite of all of the hyperventilating by media-economists on how U.S. economic growth is set to surge thanks to the “tax cut” at the pump, it is important to keep in mind that a cut in the price of a good is not economic growth.

For every penny drop in the board foot of lumber, ounce of metal or gallon of gasoline, there is a penny that will be spent elsewhere. This sounds great, until you realize that the amount of pennies being spent are not increasing. That is to say, it is a zero-sum game, a transfer of pennies within an economy is not an expansion of spending in that economy.

After all, the plunge in gasoline prices over the last six months did not prevent the circulation of cash through the economy from stalling at a 40-year low. What’s more, the declines have yet to pull the U.S.’ smokestack economy off of the ledge.

For instance, earlier this week the Federal Reserve Bank reported that goods and services produced in the manufacturing industry for February fell 0.2%, its third consecutive monthly decline. The rates of change for the total index in January, and for manufacturing in both December and January, were lower than previously reported. In fact, the January index was revised from a 0.2% rise to a 0.3% decline!

Over the last three months, retail gasoline prices averaged a six-year low of $2.282 per gallon, according to AAA. For comparison sake, at the end of February 2014, the three-month average was higher at $3.301. In fact, real gasoline prices are cheaper today than in 1974!

Be that as it may, consumers refuse to spend their gasoline savings elsewhere in the economy.

Last week, the U.S. Census Bureau reported a third straight sharp drop in retail sales. The headline number for February dropped 0.6%, as opposed to market expectations of a 0.3% rise.

The average drop in retail sales of 0.8% over the last three months is the largest decline since the three months following the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

Just as important, retail sales in the control group (which the Bureau of Economic Analysis uses to calculate GDP) has not risen since the plunge in gasoline began.

The control group factors out sales of food, autos, building materials and gas stations and therefore provides a good barometer on consumer spending exclusive of purchases vulnerable to fluctuating energy and commodity costs. This allows us to arrive at a more accurate picture of consumer behavior.

Unfortunately, the current picture of the U.S. consumer is not pretty. Yet oddly enough, Sheep on the Street continue to bleat that lower oil prices are good for the economy. Intuitively, the Street’s canard makes sense, but as we have seen throughout the extant plunge in oil, consumers refuse to follow Wall Street’s script.

Given that consumer spending drives more than two-thirds of the economy, you would think that Wall Street would stop rejoicing cheap gas (as well as cheap lumber, copper and aluminum), and concern itself with the economic forces pulling commodity prices lower.

Stephen Schork is the founder and editor of The Schork Report, a daily subscription newsletter providing daily views of the energy, cash and financial markets.

About the Author
By Stephen Schork
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon

Latest in Commentary

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Commentary

altman
CommentarySam Altman
Musk vs. Altman: AI safety cannot be one man’s job
By Stavros GadinisMay 18, 2026
9 hours ago
charlie
CommentarySoftware
Anaplan CEO: AI isn’t eating software. It’s sorting it
By Charlie GottdienerMay 18, 2026
19 hours ago
shyam
CommentaryHealth
World Economic Forum: women’s health gets only 20% of R&D funding. We must seize this $1 trillion opportunity
By Shyam BishenMay 18, 2026
1 day ago
murdochs
CommentaryMedia
OpenAI paid $100 million for a talk show. James Murdoch is eyeing an even bigger deal. The hot new asset class is humanity
By Lin CherryMay 17, 2026
2 days ago
dennis
CommentaryAI agents
Freshworks CEO: why agile enterprises are winning the AI race — and what they did differently
By Dennis WoodsideMay 17, 2026
2 days ago
Mary Moreland-Abbott Executive Vice President of Human Resources.
CommentaryRetirement
Gen X is the most indebted generation in America. Their employers can fix that
By Mary MorelandMay 17, 2026
2 days ago

Most Popular

The Bezos family just donated $100 million to help achieve one of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s top campaign promises
Politics
The Bezos family just donated $100 million to help achieve one of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s top campaign promises
By Jake AngeloMay 12, 2026
6 days ago
While Trump insisted the Iran war would end ‘soon,’ an account in his name was buying millions in oil, defense and gold
Economy
While Trump insisted the Iran war would end ‘soon,’ an account in his name was buying millions in oil, defense and gold
By Eva RoytburgMay 18, 2026
12 hours ago
Microsoft AI chief gives it 18 months—for all white-collar work to be automated by AI
AI
Microsoft AI chief gives it 18 months—for all white-collar work to be automated by AI
By Jake AngeloMay 16, 2026
3 days ago
EXCLUSIVE: An hour in the Oval Office with the CEO-in-Chief, President Trump
Politics
EXCLUSIVE: An hour in the Oval Office with the CEO-in-Chief, President Trump
By Alyson ShontellMay 18, 2026
23 hours ago
Current price of oil as of May 18, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of oil as of May 18, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerMay 18, 2026
17 hours ago
The top foreign holders of U.S. debt may soon dump Treasury bonds and bring their money back home, potentially spiking borrowing costs
Economy
The top foreign holders of U.S. debt may soon dump Treasury bonds and bring their money back home, potentially spiking borrowing costs
By Jason MaMay 17, 2026
2 days ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.