• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Exclusive

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

An hour in the Oval Office with President Trump Fortune Editor-in-Chief: Alyson Shontell sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office for an hour. Tariffs, Intel, AI, Boeing, Iran—and the question every CEO eventually has to answer: who's next?

TechGlobal 500

Apple’s $100 billion haircut: What the analysts are saying

By
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Down Arrow Button Icon
August 6, 2015, 7:37 AM ET
Source: Morgan Stanley

With the stock solidly in correction mode despite record quarterly sales, Apple analysts must be getting hounded this week by clients wondering what the hell is going on. Their responses are all over the lot. Here’s what I’ve seen so far.

I lead with Morgan Stanley’s Katy Huberty, who weighed in early Thursday, because she’s a cautious, middle-of-the-road type who backs her opinions with actual research. Wamsi Mohan at Merrill Lynch—whose downgrade got so much attention Wednesday—is a relatively untested newbie, having taken over from Scott Craig in 2014. Berenberg’s Adnaan Ahmed is a veteran Apple naysayer who hasn’t been right yet. Global Equities Trip Chowdhry blows hot and cold on Apple; this week, he sounds a bit hysterical.

Katy Huberty, Morgan Stanley: Addressing Investor Debates. “AAPL shares are down 12% since earnings mainly on the back of fears that iPhone units will decline in FY16… We believe iPhone units will grow next year, supported by continued upgrades of the installed base and the compelling value proposition of a discounted iPhone 6/+. Our 3% FY16 iPhone unit growth is predicated on continued upgrades with slowing new user additions. More specifically, only 27% of the 82% of US consumers who planned to upgrade to the larger screen iPhone have done so to-date suggesting Apple is less than 1/3 through the upgrade cycle… We are buyers on weakness ahead of iPhone unit and gross margin expansion in FY16. Rating: Overweight. Price target: $155.

Wamsi Mohan, Merrill Lynch: Although the long term opportunity is significant, we expect near term pressure on shares driven by (1) significant slowdown in revenue growth as iPhone growth decelerates and other initiatives like Apple Watch, Apple Pay, Apple Music take time to ramp, (2) China now accounts for ~25% of iPhone sales (C2Q) and share gains will be more difficult to come by, (3) the stock price is correlated to gross profit dollar growth (Figure 6), which despite the mix benefit of the iPhone will decelerate significantly over the next few quarters, (4) the magnitude of the beats is diminishing creating higher risk to negative revisions particularly as the Apple watch expectations are likely too elevated in 2016 , (5) the iPhone 6S/6S+ are likely to be an incremental upgrade (force touch), but not likely compelling enough for driving a significant change in the pace of share gains, and (6) we do not see incremental capital return announcements beyond the already announced plans in the near term. Downgraded from Buy to Neutral. Cut price target to $130 from $145.

Adnaan Ahmad, Berenberg: The next shoe to drop? “Adjusted gross margins have increased from 40.2% to 42.3% in the last 12 months, ie a 200bp improvement relative to the reported flat gross margins. Not bad, one may think, but herein lies the rub: this is at a time a) when Apple has raised prices on its iPhones (to offset the larger screen bill of material hike) and b) when revenue and volume growth has been in the 30-40% range, which should theoretically give leverage to the model, c) when initially at least Samsung had no product and is now cutting prices on its high-end product and d) when industry growth is slowing. We think group gross margins have peaked, or will peak again soon, and that is the next debate on the world’s largest market cap stock. Sell. $85.

Trip Chowdhry, Global Equities: Slowing China economy is disastrous for Apple’s Business. “We are using the Global Recession of 2008 and 2009 as the proxy for projecting a decline in China’s GDP and the consequential effect on Apple’s business. We are expecting a disastrous China business for Apple and are reducing Apple’s revenue estimates from China for both 4QFY2015 and full FY2016 by 8% (2% higher than the decline in Revenue suffered by any of the closest proxies during the 2008-09 Global recession).” Reduced price target to $155 from $170.

New arrivals:

Daniel Ives, FBR: Taking a Bite Out of the Apple Bear Thesis. “While Apple has apparently become a “battleground stock” since reporting B-plus June results, we have seen this story play out before (e.g., concerns around iPhone 5 product cycle) and believe near-term weakness represents a golden buying opportunity… These concerns are pressuring Apple shares, [but] we are seeing the forest through the trees, as we believe the unrivaled fundamental strength behind the company’s iPhone 6 product cycle (less than 30% of customers have upgraded to date), a massive greenfield China market opportunity, and a host of growing new products/services (e.g., Apple Music, streaming TV possible later this fall, Apple Pay) are setting the stage for the company’s next leg of growth in FY16/FY17.” Outperform. $175.

William Powers, Baird: Remain Positive on Fundamentals. “Multiple concerns have weighed on Apple’s stock over the past few weeks, headlined by tough upcoming iPhone comps. and China sales risks. While a potential China slowdown clearly poses risk, we believe the current fundamentals remain strong with stock historically performing well in the month in advance of new iPhone launches, even in S cycle years. Coupled with what we view as a compelling valuation, we would be buyers on recent weakness.” Outperform. $155.

 

Follow Philip Elmer-DeWitt on Twitter at @philiped. Read his Apple (AAPL) coverage at fortune.com/ped or subscribe via his RSS feed.

About the Author
By Philip Elmer-DeWitt
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon

Latest in Tech

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Tech

broker
Investingbubble
AI is eating the market and Wall Street strategists have bubble brain as they debate: are we in 1997 or 1999?
By Nick LichtenbergMay 18, 2026
40 minutes ago
Attendees sit to watch a speech during the 2023 Consensus conference in Austin, Texas
CryptoCryptocurrency
A strip club scandal at a major crypto industry event triggers sponsor backlash
By Jack KubinecMay 18, 2026
1 hour ago
data center
AIData centers
Communities are blocking billions in data centers. Big Tech has wagered $1 trillion otherwise
By Nick LichtenbergMay 18, 2026
2 hours ago
griffin
AIBillionaires
Billionaire Ken Griffin used to dismiss AI as ‘garbage.’ Here’s why he changed his mind—and why he’s ‘depressed’
By Nick LichtenbergMay 18, 2026
3 hours ago
haidt
AIGen Z
A record number of 18-year-olds are set to graduate into an economy designed against them
By Nick LichtenbergMay 18, 2026
5 hours ago
A panel on Gen Z workers sit alongside Fortune's Kristin Stoller at the Fortune Workplace Innovation Summit.
NewslettersFortune Workplace Innovation
AI in the workplace is stumbling. Fortune’s Workplace Innovation Summit will dive in to why
By Kristin StollerMay 18, 2026
6 hours ago

Most Popular

The top foreign holders of U.S. debt may soon dump Treasury bonds and bring their money back home, potentially spiking borrowing costs
Economy
The top foreign holders of U.S. debt may soon dump Treasury bonds and bring their money back home, potentially spiking borrowing costs
By Jason MaMay 17, 2026
1 day ago
Microsoft AI chief gives it 18 months—for all white-collar work to be automated by AI
AI
Microsoft AI chief gives it 18 months—for all white-collar work to be automated by AI
By Jake AngeloMay 16, 2026
2 days ago
The Bezos family just donated $100 million to help achieve one of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s top campaign promises
Politics
The Bezos family just donated $100 million to help achieve one of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s top campaign promises
By Jake AngeloMay 12, 2026
6 days ago
'No one was coming to save me': How Reese Witherspoon built a $900 million company from a problem Hollywood wouldn't fix
Success
'No one was coming to save me': How Reese Witherspoon built a $900 million company from a problem Hollywood wouldn't fix
By Sydney LakeMay 17, 2026
1 day ago
SpaceX heads into a record-shattering IPO with the 'deepest moat that exists today' as investors vow to 'never bet against Elon'
Innovation
SpaceX heads into a record-shattering IPO with the 'deepest moat that exists today' as investors vow to 'never bet against Elon'
By Jason MaMay 16, 2026
2 days ago
Gen X is the most indebted generation in America. Their employers can fix that
Commentary
Gen X is the most indebted generation in America. Their employers can fix that
By Mary MorelandMay 17, 2026
1 day ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.