• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

MacKenzie Scott alone accounted for one-third of America's $19.2 billion in megagifts last year

2

As Big Tech showers employees with perks to win the talent war, Nvidia built a nearly $5 trillion company by making people pay for their own lunch

3

Philanthropy leader at Warren Buffett and Bill Gates’ Giving Pledge says children of billionaires are pushing them to give their wealth away faster

1

MacKenzie Scott alone accounted for one-third of America's $19.2 billion in megagifts last year

2

As Big Tech showers employees with perks to win the talent war, Nvidia built a nearly $5 trillion company by making people pay for their own lunch

3

Philanthropy leader at Warren Buffett and Bill Gates’ Giving Pledge says children of billionaires are pushing them to give their wealth away faster
Finance

These Hotel Stocks Could Help Investors Sleep at Night

By
Chris Taylor
Chris Taylor
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Chris Taylor
Chris Taylor
Down Arrow Button Icon
January 25, 2016, 6:30 AM ET
Photo: Courtesy of Hyatt
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

For the hotel industry, the past year has been bad enough to make shareholders want to empty the minibar.

In 2015, while the S&P 500 was essentially flat, the widely followed Baird/STR index of 41 hotel stocks fell a grizzly-bearish 20.1%. The hospitality-suite rout continued in the early weeks of this year, with the stocks of several hotel chains dropping by 10% or more.

But here’s the confounding thing: The stocks plummeted even as the industry posted all-time highs for occupancy rates and revenue per available room, or RevPAR. “We’ve been breaking records,” says Jan Freitag, senior vice president at travel-research company STR. “And we’re going to continue to break records.” Indeed, Freitag and many money managers believe the disconnect between market sentiment and the industry’s fundamentals has become a chasm—creating an opportunity for bargain hunters.

INV.02.01.16 chart

The bears’ pessimism isn’t unfounded. Hotel revenue growth has begun to decelerate after a long positive cycle. STR projects that RevPAR, which now stands at about $80, will grow 5.7% in 2016, down from 6.5% in 2015 and a sizzling 8.1% in 2014. As in other industries whose shares have looked shaky of late, you can pin some of the blame on China’s slowdown, since Chinese leisure and business travelers have become major revenue drivers. “Markets like New York, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Miami could see softness because of slower growth from the Chinese consumer,” says Chad Beynon, senior lodging analyst at Macquarie Capital.

The industry also faces a lingering, low-level panic about Airbnb and what the home-rental business will mean for the sector—particularly in the battle for millennial loyalties. Investors “think Airbnb will do to hotels what Uber did to taxis,” says David Loeb, managing director for investment managers Robert W. Baird. “But it’s just not a fair analogy.” If anything, he argues, the data suggest that hotels and Airbnb can peacefully coexist. Even as Airbnb surged in 2015—the company estimates that its network housed 40 million guests, double the number from 2014, in 34,000 cities—hotels scored a record-breaking year of their own. In November, the most recent month for which numbers are available, occupancy rates hit an unprecedented 66.7%, while average room rates topped $120 for the first time.

Beynon sees occupancy levels staying high through 2016 and beyond, “thanks to corporate profits, convention calendars, and leisure travel fueled by baby boomers”—business segments where Airbnb’s impact hasn’t been as great. Bullish investors also say hotels are finally benefiting from their decades-long effort to create hipper, boutique subsidiaries. Examples include the W and Aloft units of Starwood Hotels & Resorts (HOT), Hyatt’s Andaz chain (H), and Hilton Worldwide Holdings’ Canopy and Curio. These boutiques’ trendier on-site bars and restaurants and locally inspired design appeal to travelers put off by the cookie-cutter feel of larger chains—especially millennials, whose financial clout will mushroom in years to come.

Overall, the hotel industry’s anticipated revenue growth for this year is expected to outpace the 4% to 5% that analysts foresee for the entire S&P 500. The broader slowdown in hospitality will continue to hurt some stocks. But value investors say others are well suited for a rebound from today’s lows. One favorite: Extended Stay America (STAY), which offers longer-term lodging options at its nearly 700 hotels. With its low room rates and fully equipped kitchens, the chain has plenty of ammunition for any war with Airbnb, and isn’t heavily reliant on Chinese travelers. “They don’t do franchising, so every hotel is theirs,” boosting the parent company’s revenue, says Loeb. He credits Extended Stay’s management with an impressive turnaround, but the stock still trades at a modest 13 times expected 2016 earnings. Macquarie’s 2016 estimates of the chain’s RevPAR growth: a whopping 10.9%.

Beynon favors Hilton (HLT), a $12 billion giant that Macquarie recently upgraded to “outperform” with a $30 price target, up from its current $18. Hilton has the industry’s largest pipeline of new rooms hitting the market, according to Beynon, who also likes the company’s recently initiated dividend and share-buyback program. Hilton’s projected revenue growth for 2016 is a healthy 6.2%. One potential catalyst to goose the stock: This week’s launch of Tru by Hilton, a new, mid-budget brand designed to court younger travelers.

[fortune-brightcove videoid=4616030255001]

The elephant in an investor’s hotel room: the Starwood-Marriott merger, which has been signed but isn’t yet closed. The $12.2 billion deal would create the largest hotel company in the world, with 1.1 million rooms in 5,500 properties, and would certainly increase competitive pressure on other chains.

But Beynon points out that the aftershocks of that earthquake may actually benefit shareholders of Hilton. Assuming that current S&P 500 component Starwood gets swallowed up, many analysts think Hilton will take its place in the index. That tends to be positive for any stock, since it leads more institutional investors to automatically buy its shares. Beynon says Hilton is “the most attractive name in lodging right now.” Given how oversold the industry is, now could be a good time for investors to book a room.

A version of this article appears in the February 1, 2016 issue of Fortune with the headline “Hotel Stocks With Staying Power.”

About the Author
By Chris Taylor
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in Finance

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Finance

Mark Zandi, Moody's chief economist.
EconomyU.S. economy
‘It’s fair to ask whether it was worth it’: The Iran War has cost Americans $1,000 per household—and that’s a conservative estimate, Mark Zandi says
By Tristan BoveJuly 1, 2026
3 hours ago
Melania Trump NFT earnings surge 28x in 2025 as First Lady rakes in nearly $17 million in total earnings, filing shows
PoliticsDonald Trump
Melania Trump NFT earnings surge 28x in 2025 as First Lady rakes in nearly $17 million in total earnings, filing shows
By Mia OsmonbekovJuly 1, 2026
3 hours ago
Donald Trump sits at his desk in the Oval Office, smiling and with his hands folded in front of him.
PoliticsDonald Trump
Trump got a $78K pension from the Screen Actors Guild in 2025 because he appeared in Home Alone 2 in 1992
By Sasha RogelbergJuly 1, 2026
4 hours ago
Current price of Bitcoin for July 1, 2026
Personal FinanceCryptocurrency
Current price of Bitcoin for July 1, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 1, 2026
8 hours ago
Current price of Ethereum for July 1, 2026
Personal FinanceEthereum
Current price of Ethereum for July 1, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 1, 2026
8 hours ago
Top CD rates from major banks July 1, 2026: Chase CDs, Bank of America CDs, Citibank CDs, and more
Personal FinanceCertificates of Deposit (CDs)
Top CD rates from major banks on July 1, 2026: Chase CDs, Bank of America CDs, Citibank CDs, and more
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 1, 2026
8 hours ago

Most Popular

MacKenzie Scott alone accounted for one-third of America's $19.2 billion in megagifts last year
Success
MacKenzie Scott alone accounted for one-third of America's $19.2 billion in megagifts last year
By Sydney LakeJune 25, 2026
7 days ago
As Big Tech showers employees with perks to win the talent war, Nvidia built a nearly $5 trillion company by making people pay for their own lunch
Big Tech
As Big Tech showers employees with perks to win the talent war, Nvidia built a nearly $5 trillion company by making people pay for their own lunch
By Marco Quiroz-GutierrezJuly 1, 2026
14 hours ago
Philanthropy leader at Warren Buffett and Bill Gates’ Giving Pledge says children of billionaires are pushing them to give their wealth away faster
Success
Philanthropy leader at Warren Buffett and Bill Gates’ Giving Pledge says children of billionaires are pushing them to give their wealth away faster
By Preston ForeJune 27, 2026
4 days ago
Elon Musk on MacKenzie Scott giving away $26 billion of her fortune: 'Sadly,' it makes the world a worse place
Success
Elon Musk on MacKenzie Scott giving away $26 billion of her fortune: 'Sadly,' it makes the world a worse place
By Sydney LakeJune 29, 2026
2 days ago
The Supreme Court's birthright citizenship ruling hands the U.S. economy a $7.7 trillion win
Newsletters
The Supreme Court's birthright citizenship ruling hands the U.S. economy a $7.7 trillion win
By Diane BradyJuly 1, 2026
12 hours ago
The U.S. Army is opening military bases to private billions — here's why that changes everything for the next 250 years
Commentary
The U.S. Army is opening military bases to private billions — here's why that changes everything for the next 250 years
By Marc AndersenJune 30, 2026
1 day ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.