• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

As Big Tech showers employees with perks to win the talent war, Nvidia built a nearly $5 trillion company by making people pay for their own lunch

2

MacKenzie Scott alone accounted for one-third of America's $19.2 billion in megagifts last year

3

The Supreme Court's birthright citizenship ruling hands the U.S. economy a $7.7 trillion win

1

As Big Tech showers employees with perks to win the talent war, Nvidia built a nearly $5 trillion company by making people pay for their own lunch

2

MacKenzie Scott alone accounted for one-third of America's $19.2 billion in megagifts last year

3

The Supreme Court's birthright citizenship ruling hands the U.S. economy a $7.7 trillion win
FinanceFederal Reserve

Janet Yellen Says Inflation Is Coming Soon

By
Chris Matthews
Chris Matthews
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Chris Matthews
Chris Matthews
Down Arrow Button Icon
March 29, 2016, 1:54 PM ET
Janet Yellen Holds News Conference Following FOMC Meeting
Janet Yellen, chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, listens to a question during a news conference following a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in Washington, D.C., U.S., on Wednesday, Dec. 16, 2015. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in almost a decade in a widely telegraphed move while signaling that the pace of subsequent increases will be gradual and in line with previous projections. Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg *** Local Caption *** Janet YellenPhotograph by Andrew Harrer — Bloomberg via Getty Images
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Markets have been pretty pleased with the Federal Reserve of late, but don’t expect that to last.

In a speech to the Economic Club of New York on Tuesday, Fed Chair Janet Yellen argued that recent turmoil in the global economy has “not materially altered the Committee’s . . . most likely outlook for economic activity and inflation” over the next couple of years.

Yellen’s remarks could undercut what the market had taken as comforting news lately—the fact that the majority of voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee now see interest rates settling at 0.75% or below by the end of 2016, about 0.25% less than just a few months ago.

Two weeks ago, Yellen’s view, along with nearly all the members of the Federal Reserves voting committee, appeared finally to be in harmony with the market’s view of where interest rates will be by the end of the year, making it less likely that the central bank will enact more than two rate hikes this year. That calmed the market, which has been up roughly 3% over the pase month.

Yellen’s speech today, though, suggest there is less agreement between the Fed and markets than it appears.

The single most important metric the Fed studies is inflation, and markets and the Fed see this metric as going in different directions. The Fed sees inflation reaching its goal of 2% annually before the end of next year, while the market is implying at 10-year inflation expectation of 1.65%, meaning that the public currently expects the inflation rate to be less than 2% on average over the next decade.

If inflation fails to rise above the Fed’s 2% target over the next decade, the central bank is going to have a hard time justifying raising rates much at all over that time period, regardless of how low the unemployment rate falls. The Fed’s models, however, can’t conceive of a world where the unemployment rate continues to drop as it has in recent months without putting upward pressure on inflation.

So Federal Reserve officials have been at pains to convince markets that they are wrong about where inflation and where the global economy is headed. Earlier this month at a speech to the National Association for Business Economics, Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer argued a link remains between falling unemployment and higher inflation and that, “we may well at present be seeing the first stirrings of an increase in the inflation rate.”

Other Fed officials, like San Francisco Fed President John Williams and Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart have advocated for raising rates as soon as next month, though they are currently not part of the FOMC and therefore don’t get a vote. In a speech Tuesday in Singapore, Williams argued that given all of the headwinds forcing inflation down, like a strong dollar and historically very cheap energy prices, it’s a testament to the strength of the U.S. economy that inflation is even where it is today, and that once these headwinds begin to fade, we shouldn’t be surprised if inflation picks up markedly.

The majority of voting members of the FOMC don’t agree with Williams’ and Lockhart’s view that imminent rate hikes are needed to stave off a risky bout of inflation. But that doesn’t mean that markets and the Fed are in agreement.

Yellen addressed the divergent views of the market and the Fed in her Tuesday speech arguing that market-based measures of inflation, like the Cleveland Fed’s are being distorted by “movements in inflation risk premiums and liquidity concerns rather than by shifts in inflation expectations.” She points to survey-based measures of inflation expectations that are higher as evidence that the Fed’s forecasts are accurate.

Furthermore, Yellen also sounded a dovish note on policy, saying that “developments abroad imply that meeting our objectives for employment and inflation will likely require a somewhat lower path for the federal funds rate than was anticipated in December.”

It’s not a surprise, then, that the market seemed to like Yellen’s remarks. Stocks were up shortly after the Fed head finished speaking. But the market should have known the fact that the Fed was thinking more cautiously about economic growth than it was in December two weeks ago. The more important conflict, though, between the Fed and markets is over where inflation is headed. And that, as Yellen’s Tuesday speech showed, has yet to be resolved.

 

About the Author
By Chris Matthews
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in Finance

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Finance

Trump’s 927-page disclosure is just a normal Tuesday for direct indexing and crypto wealth managers
InvestingDonald Trump
Trump’s 927-page disclosure is just a normal Tuesday for direct indexing and crypto wealth managers
By Catherina GioinoJuly 1, 2026
6 hours ago
US President Donald Trump sits in silence with his hands folded on top of each other.
CryptoDonald Trump
Inside Trump’s $1.4 billion crypto empire: Altcoins, Bitcoin—and a stake in Michael Saylor’s Strategy
By Camila Grigera NaónJuly 1, 2026
7 hours ago
Mark Zandi, Moody's chief economist.
EconomyU.S. economy
‘It’s fair to ask whether it was worth it’: The Iran war has cost Americans $1,000 per household—and that’s a conservative estimate, Mark Zandi says
By Tristan BoveJuly 1, 2026
10 hours ago
Melania Trump NFT earnings surge 28x in 2025 as the First Lady rakes in nearly $17 million in total earnings, filing shows
PoliticsDonald Trump
Melania Trump NFT earnings surge 28x in 2025 as the First Lady rakes in nearly $17 million in total earnings, filing shows
By Mia OsmonbekovJuly 1, 2026
10 hours ago
Donald Trump sits at his desk in the Oval Office, smiling and with his hands folded in front of him.
PoliticsDonald Trump
Trump got a $78K pension from the Screen Actors Guild in 2025 because he appeared in Home Alone 2 in 1992
By Sasha RogelbergJuly 1, 2026
11 hours ago
Current price of Bitcoin for July 1, 2026
Personal FinanceCryptocurrency
Current price of Bitcoin for July 1, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 1, 2026
15 hours ago

Most Popular

As Big Tech showers employees with perks to win the talent war, Nvidia built a nearly $5 trillion company by making people pay for their own lunch
Big Tech
As Big Tech showers employees with perks to win the talent war, Nvidia built a nearly $5 trillion company by making people pay for their own lunch
By Marco Quiroz-GutierrezJuly 1, 2026
21 hours ago
MacKenzie Scott alone accounted for one-third of America's $19.2 billion in megagifts last year
Success
MacKenzie Scott alone accounted for one-third of America's $19.2 billion in megagifts last year
By Sydney LakeJune 25, 2026
7 days ago
The Supreme Court's birthright citizenship ruling hands the U.S. economy a $7.7 trillion win
Newsletters
The Supreme Court's birthright citizenship ruling hands the U.S. economy a $7.7 trillion win
By Diane BradyJuly 1, 2026
19 hours ago
Philanthropy leader at Warren Buffett and Bill Gates’ Giving Pledge says children of billionaires are pushing them to give their wealth away faster
Success
Philanthropy leader at Warren Buffett and Bill Gates’ Giving Pledge says children of billionaires are pushing them to give their wealth away faster
By Preston ForeJune 27, 2026
5 days ago
Current price of oil as of July 1, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of oil as of July 1, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 1, 2026
16 hours ago
Elon Musk on MacKenzie Scott giving away $26 billion of her fortune: 'Sadly,' it makes the world a worse place
Success
Elon Musk on MacKenzie Scott giving away $26 billion of her fortune: 'Sadly,' it makes the world a worse place
By Sydney LakeJune 29, 2026
3 days ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.