• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Despite having a $165 million net worth, Scarlett Johansson says work-life balance doesn’t exist—and the first step to success is admitting that

2

The Bezos family just donated $100 million to help achieve one of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s top campaign promises

3

Current price of oil as of May 15, 2026

1

Despite having a $165 million net worth, Scarlett Johansson says work-life balance doesn’t exist—and the first step to success is admitting that

2

The Bezos family just donated $100 million to help achieve one of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s top campaign promises

3

Current price of oil as of May 15, 2026
FinanceBanks

This Central Bank Has the Worst Track Record for Predicting Inflation

By
Bloomberg
Bloomberg
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Bloomberg
Bloomberg
Down Arrow Button Icon
January 17, 2018, 11:44 AM ET

No central bank is perfect but for forecasting its key metric, the Bank of England is at the bottom of the pile.

The three-century-old institution has the worst track record for predicting inflation in its home economy, according to the latest Bloomberg ranking of Group of Seven central banks. The Bank of Canada has the best.

Unlike its major peers, the European Central Bank and the U.S. Federal Reserve, the BOE tends to undershoot on its consumer-price forecasts, although that seems to be changing. Its prediction for inflation two years ahead was lower than the eventual outcome in each of the eight years through 2013, with an average undershoot of 1.3 percentage points. Since then, it’s gone the other way, with an overshoot of about 1.1 percentage points.

Forecasting is a critical concern for central-bank credibility as it provides the basis for monetary-policy decisions that affect the companies and households of the real economy. At the BOE, Governor Mark Carney and his fellow policy makers have just raised their benchmark interest rate for the first time in more than a decade, citing the outlook for inflation.

Projections that don’t come to pass are one more stick to use to beat central banks and the unelected technocrats who run them. Monetary institutions have come under increased fire since the financial crisis for measures like quantitative easing and negative interest rates that some say have fueled inequality.

To compile its results, Bloomberg looked at inflation projections two years ahead and gross domestic product estimates one year ahead, and compared them with annual results from 2006-2016. The overall score reflects a Taylor Rule approach that gives equal weight to growth and inflation.

On the overall measure, the Fed ranked first, despite being too bullish on growth for 10 of 11 years of the study, while the Bank of Japan was last.

On estimates for economic growth alone, the BOE shot to the top of the rankings, even though it, too, has been consistently overly optimistic. That’s ironic, given that Carney has repeatedly been castigated by some British lawmakers and media for being too downbeat on the nation’s prospects before and after 2016’s vote to leave the European Union.

Andy Haldane, BOE Chief Economist, said in 2017 it was a “fair cop” that the bank — in common with almost all mainstream forecasters — expected a sharper slowdown than the U.K. has seen since the Brexit decision. He also said his profession has a lot of work to do if it is to recover from its failure to predict the global financial crisis and its aftermath.

About the Author
By Bloomberg
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon

Latest in Finance

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Finance

lirr
EconomyRailroads
Spring Hamptons traffic nightmare as Long Island Rail Road workers go on strike
By Philip Marcelo, Nick Lichtenberg and The Associated PressMay 16, 2026
3 hours ago
delivery
Retailecommerce
Walmart’s upper hand over Amazon in the $1 trillion e-commerce race: 90% of Americans live within 10 miles of a superstore
By Anne D'Innocenzio and The Associated PressMay 16, 2026
3 hours ago
milei
North AmericaInflation
Argentinians wage inflation strike on red meat sending beef consumption to 20-year low
By Clara Preve and The Associated PressMay 16, 2026
3 hours ago
tom
SuccessEntrepreneurs
Top Chef’s Tom Colicchio got a 15x return on a tech company most Americans have never heard of. He thinks his own industry is broken
By Nick LichtenbergMay 16, 2026
6 hours ago
bhaskar
Economydisruption
The prophet of the ‘Wired Belt’ says capitalism is finally eating itself
By Bhaskar ChakravortiMay 16, 2026
7 hours ago
cyborg
Future of WorkProductivity
AI’s cyborg problem: you have to embrace it to really succeed but 90% of people can’t or don’t want to
By Nick LichtenbergMay 16, 2026
8 hours ago

Most Popular

Despite having a $165 million net worth, Scarlett Johansson says work-life balance doesn’t exist—and the first step to success is admitting that
Success
Despite having a $165 million net worth, Scarlett Johansson says work-life balance doesn’t exist—and the first step to success is admitting that
By Preston ForeMay 13, 2026
3 days ago
The Bezos family just donated $100 million to help achieve one of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s top campaign promises
Politics
The Bezos family just donated $100 million to help achieve one of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s top campaign promises
By Jake AngeloMay 12, 2026
4 days ago
Current price of oil as of May 15, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of oil as of May 15, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerMay 15, 2026
1 day ago
Nearly 50,000 Lake Tahoe residents have to find a new power source after their energy source looks to redirect lines to data centers
Travel & Leisure
Nearly 50,000 Lake Tahoe residents have to find a new power source after their energy source looks to redirect lines to data centers
By Catherina GioinoMay 12, 2026
4 days ago
The airplane fuel shortage is a myth propagated by airlines who want to cancel unprofitable flights, says private jet CEO
Energy
The airplane fuel shortage is a myth propagated by airlines who want to cancel unprofitable flights, says private jet CEO
By Jim EdwardsMay 14, 2026
2 days ago
Debbie Gibson, Geezer Butler of Black Sabbath want you to adopt a beagle rescued from an experimental lab in Wisconsin
North America
Debbie Gibson, Geezer Butler of Black Sabbath want you to adopt a beagle rescued from an experimental lab in Wisconsin
By Scott Bauer and The Associated PressMay 13, 2026
3 days ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.