Italian Winemakers Could Find Big Opportunities in U.S. Tariffs on French Wine

As Donald Trump’s threat to impose a 100% tax on select but popular French goods continues to loom, competitors are already looking for opportunities to fill the void.

The U.S. government on Dec. 2 threatened to impose tariffs of up to 100% on $2.4 billion in French goods in retaliation for a digital services tax that the Trump administration says is discriminatory. The U.S. Trade Representative’s office says the French tax would penalize American tech companies—notably Google, Apple, Facebook, and Amazon.

French wine stood out among many products on the list of goods that could be targeted as soon as mid-January. Thus, both New World as well as a few Old World regions producing similar varietals might be able to find a greater audience with U.S. consumers in the interim.

“Tariffs would undoubtably leave an ‘open door’ for producers from other regions to step in and aim to take share. Especially Italy and Spain. Australia has also been making strides to showcase its more premium offerings,” says Adam Rogers, research director for the North America region at IWSR, a data analysis firm covering the beverage and alcohol markets.

Additionally, U.S. consumers have been known to buy wines with higher alcohol content—on average, above 13% ABV. While higher ABV counts are common among American winemakers, that isn’t always the case with European producers. But New World wines like Argentine Malbec, Australian Shiraz, and Chilean Merlot all fall within the medium-to-high ABV range (between 13.5% and 14.5%).

However, Rogers warns, “it’s hard to speak to the price comparisons without knowing if adjustments will be made to counteract the French tariffs.”

Bottles of Bordeaux on display at a liquor store in Arlington, Va., in early December.

But oenophiles seeking similar palate profiles (and on a certain budget), might want to consider neighboring countries with similar climates and terroir.

Italy, in particular, might see the greatest opportunity if French wines become too expensive for U.S. buyers. (Note that, so far, the U.S. has only threatened tariffs on Italian cheese, among other goods, but not Italian wine.) Italian wines distributed and sold in the United States are usually cheaper in price on average, and the country boasts a diverse landscape in wine regions.

“Among Italian wines, the more well-known regions of Italy (like Piedmont and Tuscany) will be a familiar choice for U.S. consumers,” Rogers says. “The Campania region and its Aglianico grape is becoming more popular for consumers looking outside the more common Barolo or Barbaresco.”

There are many grapes grown with great success in both countries (e.g., Pinot Gris in France and Pinot Grigio in Italy), and there are a number of wines that are comparable in body and sophistication but often come with a lesser price tag in Italy as they are less well known than their French counterparts.

Bardolino, for example, is similar to France’s Beaujolais, a red wine made with Gamay grapes and named for the region in which it is grown, just south of Burgundy. Both wines require a minimum alcohol content of 10% but on average see 12.5% by the end of fermentation. And they are both on the drier side, low in tannins, fragrant on the nose, and boast fruitier and juicier flavors.

For white wines, the Friuli-Venezia Giulia region’s production of tart and flavorful white wines will offer similar taste nuances for the U.S. palate, Rogers suggests. Tuscany, he continues, also offers blends combining the best of both Italy and the New World, similar to California’s Cabernets.

“Younger consumers are constantly seeking out new wines from unfamiliar regions,” Rogers says. “If the producers build a connection with the distinctive taste derived from the specific terroir, it’s expected to resonate with consumers, spurring initial trial.”